For the first time since February, the Bing Travel 100 Airfare Index is higher than it was a year ago.
Throughout the summer of 2009 (indicated by the red line), fares were substantially lower than they were in summer 2008 (indicated by the blue line). This is mostly because prices in 2008 were extraordinarily costly (due in large part to the huge run-up in oil prices), rather than because this summer was especially cheap.
Still, it’s a little bit surprising that fares took so long to get back to parity. If we look at average airfare by travel date, comparing today’s prices to fares a year ago, we can get an idea of what’s driving this trend:
Prices this year are higher than in 2008 for Thanksgiving (the first two spikes, representing the Wednesday before the holiday and the Sunday after), and for Christmas and New Year’s (the much broader bump in late December). And indeed, it’s only been in the last couple of weeks that holiday travel prices for 2009 have overtaken fares for the same period last year.
Outside of the holidays, however, prices this year are the same or slightly lower than they were a year ago. You can also see that (as you’d expect) fares for less traveled days are substantially lower than prices for holiday travel.
So far this year, holiday prices haven’t shown any sign of an overall decline. If you haven’t started shopping yet, by all means do so. Happy travels!
Got a question? Feel free to leave me a comment on the blog or send me a tweet.
I'm confused. You say that prices for Holiday travel show no sign of decline, yet the website recommends waiting 7 days as prices are decreasing. Buy now, or wait? What should I do?
For the second table, should the blue line be for 2008-2009 and the red line for 2009-2010?
I'm also confused...I thought waiting would bring better deals. Last month, fares to Orlando from Syracuse were around $400 for the Christmas holidays-at least $100 more than I've paid, even at that time of year. NOW they're $100-200 HIGHER! I'm really freaking out here...are they going to continue to rise, or if I wait it out will they need to lower to fill the planes? (Ideal dates 12/27-1/2, but I can leave on the 26th or 28th and return on the 3rd)
Yes, I'm waiting to get tickets for the Thanksgiving holiday from San Diego to DC area - 11/20-11/29. Will they go down, or will we have to stay at home.
Don't forget about the extra surcharges they are adding:
Five Airlines Add Up To $50 Holiday Or Peak Travel Airfare Surcharges Through May 28, 2010
www.bestfares.com/news-newsID2511-Five_Airlines_Add_Up_To_$50_Holiday_Or_Peak%C2%A0Travel_Airfare.html
Do you expect fares to drop in Jan?
