Eclectic preview of 2015

Corinthian Colleges fell in 2014. Expect more for-profit higher-education providers to go the same route in 2015, or at least in the near future. It’s good strategy to be one of a handful of online providers, but the plan falls apart when the traditional players enter the game. The for-profits raked in big profits when they offered the only easy access degrees, but their window of opportunity has closed. The old institutions have joined the fray en masse. If you hold names such as University of Phoenix, Strayer, and Kaplan University in your portfolio, I suggest you divest them right away.

Jeb Bush will continue to absorb abuse from conservatives, but he isn’t Mitt Romney and doesn’t have a record like Romney’s. (Jeb never was pro-choice, never engaged in ambitious social engineering of health care, and won his swing state twice). I predict he’ll begin to win over a larger portion of the base this year as they see and hear more from him. I’m not the only observer to think he is the strongest Bush despite not having been president.

Hillary Clinton will continue on track to an inevitable run as the nominee of the Democratic Party in 2016. When Barack Obama derailed her (barely) in 2008, she was a less compelling candidate than she is today. Serving as Secretary of State has a way of elevating politicians into statesmen. The former first lady and New York senator has experienced some of that reputational magic. Elizabeth Warren is the cool pick, but Hillary’s time has come.

Put the last two paragraphs together and you get another Clinton-Bush tilt. Jeb will face lots of competition, but he’s the easy establishment choice (sorry, Chris Christie). As usual, the conservative base battlers will dilute their strength battling over who carries the banner. And as has been the tradition (for exceptions see Ronald Reagan and Barry Goldwater), they will lose to the Chamber of Commerce selection.

The Affordable Care Act will begin to break down under its own weight as providers and hospitals find its dictates overly burdensome, complex and sometimes illogical. Reform will occur organically, in response to the misery generated by its implementation, more than it will be driven by conservative ideology. No need to ask the political pundits you know. Ask your neighbor who works at the hospital. We are trying to direct the way health care happens operationally by way of technocrats in Washington, D.C. It isn’t working for doctors and nurses. As Glenn Reynolds likes to say, those things that can’t go on, won’t.

The NFL postseason will be one of the best in recent memory and will help erase the disastrous legacy of 2014’s NFL crimes, disciplinary problems, and ham-fisted league responses. With regard to the specifics, my glass is cloudy. The gut says Packers over the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I think my safest prediction is that this year’s Super Bowl will be more fun than last year’s Super Blow Out.

Hunter Baker is associate professor of political science at Union University. Write to him at 1050 Union University Drive, Jackson, TN 38305.