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Canadian Stocks Have Recovered From Early Weakness -- Canadian Commentary

The Canadian stock market has climbed back into positive territory Tuesday morning, after bouncing back from early weakness. The index snapped a 3-sesison losing streak on Monday. The mining sector is leading the decliners, but the gold sector is modestly higher as gold prices increase. Global markets are pulling back Tuesday, following the strong performance of the previous session.

Markets in Europe are in negative territory Tuesday, after yesterday's solid advance. The debt crisis in Greece is still in limbo, as the nation scrambles to secure financing ahead of the April 20th deadline.

Markets in the United States are also slightly weaker this morning. Profit taking has contributed to the early weakness on Wall Street, following Monday's rally. Remarks by Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker have also revived concerns about the outlook for interest rates.

Lacker said he believes a strong case can be made for an increase in interest rates relatively soon. Lacker said the Fed's June meeting will likely be an appropriate time to raise rates, arguing that recent signs of economic weakness are transitory and due to the rough winter weather.

With Denver, Miami, and Dallas pacing the gains, Standard & Poor's released a report on Tuesday showing that home prices in major U.S. metropolitan areas increased at a faster annual rate in the month of January.

The report said the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index rose 4.6 percent year-over-year in January compared to a downwardly revised 4.4 percent increase in December. Economists had expected the annual rate of growth to accelerate to 4.6 percent from the 4.5 percent originally reported for the previous month.

Business activity in the Chicago area unexpectedly continued to contract in the month of March, according to a report released by MNI Indicators on Tuesday. MNI Indicators said its Chicago business barometer edged up to 46.3 in March from 45.8 in February, although a reading below 50 continues to indicate a contraction.

Economists had expected the business barometer to show a more significant rebound to a reading of 51.5, which would have indicated modest growth.
Consumer confidence unexpectedly rebounded in the month of March, the Conference Board revealed in a report on Tuesday, with the increase driven by an improved short-term outlook for both employment and income prospects.

The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index jumped to 101.3 in March from an upwardly revised 98.8 in February. The increase came as a surprise to economists, who had expected the index to edge down to 95.5 from the 96.4 originally reported for the previous month.

The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index is up 0.71 points or 0.00 percent at 14,909.10. The market has rebounded from an early low of 14,813.71.

On Monday, the index closed up 95.97 points or 0.67 percent, at 14,908.39. The index scaled an intraday high of 14,994.95 and a low of 14,855.40.

The Diversified Metal and Mining Index is decreasing by 2.57 percent. First Quantum (FM.TO) is declining by 1.18 percent and Capstone Mining (CS.TO) is losing 2.40 percent. HudBay Minerals (HBM.TO) is dropping by 2.16 percent and Lundin Mining (LUN.TO)is surrendering 3.18 percent.

Teck Resources (TCK-B.TO) is sinking by 8.28 percent, after it denied rumors that it is involved in discussions with Antofagasta plc in relation to any form of transaction.

The Capped Materials Index is also down 0.51 percent. Silver Wheaton (SLW.TO) is down 0.04 percent and Agrium (AGU.TO) is declining by 1.16 percent.

The Gold Index is climbing by 0.35 percent, as the price of gold ticks higher in early trade.

Goldcorp (G.TO) is increasing by 1.17 percent and Eldorado Gold (ELD.TO) is gaining 1.87 percent. Yamana Gold (YRI.TO) is advancing by 0.96 percent and IAMGOLD (IMG.TO) is rising by 2.09 percent. Kinross Gold (K.TO) is also up 1.21 percent.

The Energy Index is rising by 0.19 percent. Crude oil prices were lower Tuesday morning, as Iran continues to work on a deal with the West that would lift sanctions on its oil. If an agreement on inspections can be worked out, Iran's oil is expected to add to a global supply glut that has already driven oil prices to the lowest in six years.

Canadian Oil Sands (COS.TO) is up 1.02 percent and Encana (ECA.TO) is adding 0.22 percent. Crescent Point Energy (CPG.TO) is increasing by 0.07 percent and Cenovus Energy (CVE.TO) is advancing by 0.19 percent. Suncor Energy (SU.TO) is also climbing by 0.24 percent.

The heavyweight Financial Index is up 0.10 percent. Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO) is up 0.28 percent and Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO) is higher by 0.12 percent. Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO) is advancing by 0.33 percent.

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO) is rising by 0.41 percent. Citigroup upgraded its rating on the stock to "Buy" from "Neutral."

The Capped Information Technology Index is lower by 0.64 percent. Sierra Wireless (SW.TO) is falling by 1.82 percent and Constellation Software (CSU.TO) is down 0.63 percent.

The Capped Telecommunication Services Index is falling by 0.58 percent. BCE (BCE.TO) is lower by 0.37 percent and TELUS (T.TO) is decreasing by 0.21 percent. Manitoba Telecom Services (MBT.TO) is declining by 0.54 percent and Rogers Communications (RCI-A.TO) is losing 1.51 percent.

The Capped Industrials Index is gaining 0.52 percent. Canadian Pacific Railway (CP.TO) is rising by 0.58 percent and Canadian National Railway (CNR.TO) is adding 0.69 percent. Bombardier (BBD-A.TO) is also up 0.39 percent.

DH Corp. (DH.TO) is declining by 2.90 percent, after it agreed to acquire Fundtech for US$1.25 billion.

Callidus Capital (CBL.TO) is sinking by 11.76 percent. The company reported fourth quarter EPS of $0.42, compared to the loss of $0.21 in the prior year.

Amaya (AYA.TO) is climbing by 3.74 percent. The company reported fourth quarter adjusted EPS of $0.42, up from $0.05 in the previous year.

On the economic front, the Canadian economy contracted less-than-expected in January. Data from Statistics Canada showed that Canada's gross domestic product edged down 0.1 percent on month in January, after increasing 0.3 percent in December. Economists had been expecting a decline of 0.2 percent.

Statistics Canada also reported this morning that Canadian average weekly employee earnings increased by 0.4 percent on a monthly basis in January.

The Eurozone unemployment rate dropped in February to the lowest since May 2012 as companies stepped up employment amid strengthening confidence. Nonetheless, the jobless rate remained at an elevated double-digit level.

The unemployment rate fell to a seasonally adjusted 11.3 percent in February from a revised 11.4 percent in January, data published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, showed Tuesday. This was the lowest rate since May 2012. Economists had forecast the rate to remain at January's originally estimated rate of 11.2 percent.

Although Eurozone inflation remained negative for the fourth consecutive month, the price decline in March was the slowest for the period, the flash estimate from Eurostat showed Tuesday. The harmonized index of consumer prices fell 0.1 percent year-on-year in March, in line with expectations. It was slower than February's 0.3 percent decline and a 0.6 percent fall seen in January.

Germany's retail sales growth eased at a slower-than-expected pace in February, preliminary figures from Destatis showed Tuesday.

Retails sales grew 3.6 percent year-over-year in February, slower than January's 5.0 percent climb, which was revised from a 5.3 percent increase. Economists had forecast a 3.4 percent growth for the month. It was the third consecutive monthly rise.

Germany's jobless rate fell to a record low in March, the Federal Labor Agency reported Tuesday. The unemployment rate dropped to a seasonally adjusted 6.4 percent in March from 6.5 percent in February. The rate came in line with economists' expectations.

Germany's jobless rate remained unchanged in February, provisional results from Destatis showed Tuesday. The jobless rate came in at adjusted 4.8 percent in February, unchanged from the prior month. The January rate was revised down from 4.7 percent. A year ago, the unemployment rate was 5.1 percent.

France's consumer spending grew for a fourth straight month in February, albeit modestly, defying economists' expectations for a decline, data from INSEE revealed Tuesday. Household consumption grew 0.1 percent from January, when it rose 0.7 percent, which was revised from 0.6 percent. Economists were looking for a 0.1 percent decline.

France's producer prices continued the declining trend in February, figures from the statistical office INSEE revealed Tuesday. Producer prices for the French market dropped 2.6 percent annually. In January, they declined 3.3 percent.

The U.K. economy grew more than the prior estimate in the fourth quarter, according to the latest report released Tuesday. Gross domestic product grew 0.6 percent sequentially in the fourth quarter, revised up from 0.5 percent published on February 26, the Office for National Statistics said. The growth was thus unchanged from the 0.6 percent expansion seen in the third quarter.

In commodities, crude oil futures for April delivery are down $0.29 or 0.60 percent at $48.39 a barrel.

Natural gas for April is up $0.012 or 0.42 percent at $2.656 per million btu.

Gold futures for April are up $3.00 or 0.25 percent at $1,188.30 an ounce.

Silver for May is up $0.076 or 0.46 percent at $16.75 an ounce.

For comments and feedback contact: editorial@rttnews.com

Market Analysis

First quarter growth data from China gained the maximum focus this week as trends in the massive emerging economy impact its trading partners. Elsewhere, the IMF released its latest global macroeconomic projections. Read our story to find out why comments from the Fed Chair Powell damped rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, there was some survey data that kindled hopes of a recovery in manufacturing. In the U.K., inflation data for March revealed some confusing trends.

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