Preview and Prediction for the 2015 Shell Houston Open

The Masters prep season comes to its final event at the Shell Houston Open starting on Thursday.

Waiting are three native Texans with four wins between them: Jimmy Walker, Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth. That three-headed monster is scarier than Cerberus.

Walker comes off an impressive four-stroke win at the Valero Texas Open over Spieth. Both players have been on point this spring.

Others who haven’t been are Rickie Fowler and Phil Mickelson, a couple of bros separated by two decades.

The Shell Houston Open marks the final tournament for these players to iron out any wrinkles for the run up Magnolia Lane.

Carry on for this week’s preview and prediction.

Where

Golf Club of Houston

7,441 yards, Par 72

What

Total Purse: $6,600,000

Winning Share: $1,188,000

FedEx Points to Winner: 500

When

Thursday-Friday

3-6 p.m. ET, Golf Channel

Saturday-Sunday

1-3 p.m. ET, Golf Channel; 3-6 p.m., NBC

Jimmy Walker, Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth Head the Field

Three Texans are the favorites to win this tournament.

Walker comes in fresh off winning his second tournament of the year with an 11-under par at the Valero Texas Open.

"Everybody says it's hard to win at home," Walker said in an Associated Press story (h/t ESPN.com), "(but) it's hard to win any week—home, away, out of the country, it's hard. So I feel good."

The win came over Spieth, who is one of the hottest golfers on tour. Finishing second at the VTO made him the second betting choice at 10-1 to win the Masters in just less than two weeks.

"It actually looked like I had a chance," said Spieth in the same Associated Press story (h/t ESPN), who birdied four straight holes late at the VTO. "I didn't think that would be possible. You're never out of it in this game, but Jimmy shut that down pretty quickly with his made putts."

Then there’s Reed, the No. 16 player in the Official Golf World Rankings, who is an assassin on the course. He hasn’t played since March 15, when he finished second in a playoff at the Valspar Championship.

When Will Phil Mickelson Come Around?

Mickelson is quickly heading toward ceremonial-former-champion territory the way golfers like David Toms, David Duval and Fred Couples are.

Mickelson played last weekend at the VTO and finished tied for 30th, shooting four over par. He hasn’t shot a single round in the 60s since the third round of the Honda Classic.

Lefty ranks 40th in driving distance, 156th in greens in regulation percentage and 119th in strokes gained: putting. No part of his game is in sync.

He’s a three-time winner of the Masters, and maybe with it just around the corner it will focus his game in Houston.

Tiger Woods Update

No, he’s not playing in this tournament, but there’s still buzz around Tiger Woods. Will he or won’t he play in the Masters next week? We haven’t seen him since he left Torrey Pines on four wheels.

This invites the question: Is he ready? ESPN.com’s Bob Harig wrote:

It was an ominous sign when Woods decided not to play at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, a tournament he has won eight times. If he didn't feel comfortable at Bay Hill, the theory goes, how bad must it be? Certainly Woods had to be shocked by his poor form at Phoenix and Torrey Pines after returning this year, seemingly with confidence, only to look so lost. And don't forget, not only was he having to overcome inactivity but he's been working on a new golf swing with instructor Chris Como. This Thursday marks eight weeks since his last competitive golf.

All that said, the golfing world awaits Woods’ announcement. We’ll know soon because Augusta National Golf Club will have to schedule accordingly. A tournament with Woods isn’t the same as a tournament without him. There’s a difference beyond the obvious.

Jimmy Walker

Walker gets the slight edge in favoritism this week over Spieth since he beat Spieth head-to-head in the final pairing Sunday at the VTO.

Walker is a top-three putter on the tour and No. 1 in birdie average.

Gary Van Sickle of Golf.com wrote:

Walker is an elite player. He finished top ten in three of four majors last year and he's got five wins in two seasons. Any other Americans done that? He was eighth last year in his first Masters appearance. But to become a household name he needs to win a high-profile tourney, either a major or a WGC.

Walker could be sitting on that “high-profile” win this year. Would you be surprised if he won at Augusta? He ranks 17th in driving (over 300 yards) and is 21st in in greens in regulation percentage. His putting is elite. So, yeah, he could win at Augusta.

He may just win here in Houston.

Jordan Spieth

Talk about different career paths. Walker is a grinder, a journeyman who didn’t find his game until his mid-30s. Then there’s Spieth, who is on the Woods fast track to greatness.

Spieth won the Valspar Championship in a playoff a few weeks ago and took second place to Walker at the VTO. Undaunted and unfazed, Spieth moved up to No. 4 in the OWGR.

"That's cool," Spieth said in an Associated Press story (h/t ESPN.com). "But I'm not pinching myself, because there are three guys ahead."

As the 10-1 second choice to win the Masters, Spieth is a favorite in just about any tournament without Rory McIlroy. These things undulate, but right now Spieth is playing as well as anyone and clearly has no shortage of confidence.

Honorable Mentions: Patrick Reed, Martin Kaymer, Bill Haas

Matt Jones

Matt Jones, the defending champion, has had a quietly solid season so far.

He finished tied for seventh at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am and finished third at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Last year he holed a 42-yard chip to win in a playoff against Matt Kuchar. Jones told his caddy he was going to hole the chip. That’s not exactly Babe Ruth calling his shot, but it’s close.

"I walked up there and told my caddy I was going to chip it in," Jones said in an Associated Press story (h/t Golf.com). "You don't know if it's going to lip out, low or high, but when I saw it disappear it's probably the happiest I've been on the golf course."

Right now he sits at No. 62 in the OWGR, so he must win this event to get into the Masters field as he did a year ago.

Paul Casey

Casey sneaked into the Masters field by closing out last week in the top 50. It’s his first trip in three years.

He could use a strong effort here to threaten at Augusta. So far this year Casey has finished second in a playoff in the Northern Trust Open and tied for third at the Honda Classic. He missed the cut at Bay Hill and makes his return to competitive golf this week.

Casey is a former No. 3 player in the world. Late last season he won in the Netherlands.

With that pair of top-three finishes this year, Casey is a sleeper pick in Houston.

Rickie Fowler

Fowler is a sleeper to win this tournament because it’s not a prime-time event.

Take last year: Fowler missed three straight cuts then finished third at the Match Play Championships. He missed a cut and then two weeks later finished tied for fifth at the Masters.

Prior to finishing tied for second at the U.S. Open, Fowler missed two straight cuts. You get the picture.

In 2015, he has finished tied for 46st, 61st, 41st and 29th in minor tournaments. At the Cadillac Championship—a WGC event—he finished tied for 12th. Call it lack of focus, or call it hyper focus for the marquee events, but Fowler’s play must be judged according to tier.

Last year he finished sixth at the Shell Houston Open while gearing up for the Masters. Fowler will post his best finish here and will, more than likely, contend at Augusta.

Winner: Rickie Fowler

Fowler has only won once on tour, and he has proves that he rises up as the competition gets stiffer. If he expects to crack into that next level, he'll need to perform better at these types of events. 

If ever there was a prep tournament to win, it's this one. Then again, maybe not. 

Jeff Shain of PGATour.com writes, "Despite GCH’s high marks in preparing players for Augusta National, just two SHO winners have placed among the top 15 at the Masters since it became a lead-in event. Anthony Kim finished third in 2010; Hunter Mahan tied for 12th two years later."

It's sort of like winning the Par Three Challenge. 

Walker and Spieth have won in recent weeks and may throttle their game down this week. Fowler will start tightening the screws and could very well contend and win in Houston.

Any odds cited on this slideshow come courtesy of OddsShark.com.