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How the Falcons can rise up again

It's been a rough couple seasons for Atlanta. Here's a way forward.

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

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The Atlanta Falcons went 36-12 from 2010-2012, winning a couple NFC South Division titles along the way, and were roundly considered to be one of the better teams in the NFC during that stretch (among the elite, even). The Falcons took a nosedive in 2013, though, finishing a disappointing 4-12, and their 2014 season wasn't a whole lot better.

Atlanta ended 2015 in an embarrassing loss at home to the Panthers in a game to decide the division champ. The Falcons finished 6-10. Head coach Mike Smith was fired after seven seasons, and they tabbed Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as the successor. It's now up to Quinn to rejuvenate and boost morale for a team that's won 10 games in two seasons. With some key changes, the Falcons have the potential to get back to the top of their division in 2015, even if it's a normal division again with *a* winning team.

So, how can Quinn get the Falcons back on top? Here's what I got:

Three Step Plan

Find the Fits

Quinn's vision for his new team specifically on defense involves "affecting the quarterback" at all times.

"The biggest thing for us is affecting the quarterback," he said in his introductory presser. "That may be the hits on him, the times we can move him off the spot. The third-down sacks are critical ones, because that's getting off the field. For us, the biggest thing is affecting the quarterback, maybe by the way we rush, maybe by the way we pressure, maybe by the way we cover or combination of all of those. But affecting him is the No. 1 thing."

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Sacks (rank) 31 (23rd) 33 (24th) 29 (26th) 32 (32nd) 22 (30th)
Sack rate 5.80% 6.00% 5.80% 5.30% 4.50%

Atlanta's pass rush since 2010, data via Football Outsiders.

This really is a holistic ideology that connects the pass rush with the coverage in the middle and back end, and involves all 11 players on the field at any given time. If you step back even further, it even really speaks to run defense, because if Quinn carries any of Pete Carroll's philosophies to Atlanta, he'll likely bring Carroll's goal of stopping the run first-and-foremost in order to make a team one-dimensional. Seattle gave up 3.4 yards per carry last year (second in the NFL) and only 81.5 yards per game (third), so while the Seahawks are more known for their pass defense, they were excellent in run defense first. The idea? Get teams to give up on the run and ride the arm of their quarterback. This puts pressure on said quarterback to produce, particularly when the defense knows you can't do anything on the ground so you're going to be passing. This "affects" the quarterback.

So, no small feat, but Quinn must set out to improve a run defense that finished 15th in yards per carry, 21st in rushing yards per game, and then fix a pass defense that finished dead last in passing yards per game last season.

"We won't have 1,000 different defenses," he explained. "What we will do is not necessarily what we play (but) is how we play it. That style will be real clear to come across in terms of the style and the attitude that we play. We'll try to best feature the players that we have, and that's one of the real things I'm looking forward to getting started with now is to better learn these guys here, and so we can now best feature them in the best way."

He's got to figure out which players he has who he can utilize in his system, and which players would become either cut candidates or potential trade chips. Even before free agency starts, he has some interesting players on the front seven with which to build a solid foundation. As he said, it's not necessarily what they'll play -- he's been flexible and very multiple over the past couple seasons -- it's how they'll play it, fast and physical.

Up front, he's got Tyson Jackson, Paul Soliai, Re'Shede Hageman and Jonathan Babineaux to work with and those players all offer versatility in 3-4 and 4-3 fronts. Quinn has shown flexibility in moving guys around on the line to use their talents, so Hageman in particular, with a rare combination of size and athleticism, will be a very interesting player to watch in 2015.

Additionally, Johnathan Massaquoi and Malliciah Goodman offer some depth on the strongside edge, so on paper, with the right scheme and coaching, the Falcons seem to have a group up front that can get the run defense back on track.

The pass rush is the first concern when you take a look at the way the roster is constructed.

Kroy Biermann is a free agent, Osi Umenyiora is gone and that leaves Stansley Maponga and Tyler Starr as Atlanta's primary pass rushers from the weakside. Dan Quinn has to find his "LEO" weakside defensive end. He could take a multi-pronged approach.

If Buffalo's Jerry Hughes or New York's Jason Pierre-Paul are too rich for a first-year coach's blood, Cleveland's Jabaal Sheard, Philly's Brandon Graham, and Washington's Brian Orakpo are three players who come to mind when it comes to Atlanta's $25.7 million in cap space. Getting one of those pass rushers on the market to pair with a rookie early-round draft pick like Dante Fowler, Bud Dupree or Vic Beasley (or others) seems like it could have the potential to make a big impact quickly.

If the bigger-name defensive ends don't pan out on the open market, guys like Dallas' Anthony Spencer or Seattle's O'Brien Schofield make a little bit of sense as stop-gaps or veteran types to bridge to potential rookie draft picks. If Quinn wants to affect the quarterback, grabbing a first rounder and a solid veteran to pair together to rush the passer seems like a good backup route to me.

One other road the Falcons could take would be to pursue Baltimore DE/DT Pernell McPhee, whose versatility inside and outside kind of reminds me of Michael Bennett. Like Bennett, McPhee was extremely disruptive as a rusher in 2014, amassing a huge numbers of hits, hurries, and sacks. If Quinn sees a little Bennett in McPhee, he could really pursue the free agent strongly and attempt to plug him in in the same role he utilized Bennett in Seattle -- playing a little "LEO end," a little strongside end and rushing from the 3-technique in nickel.

That's only one part of it, though ...

Shore up the pass defense

The pass rush helps the secondary, and the secondary helps the pass rush. If your corners and safeties can't cover, quarterbacks simply have too easy of a job getting the ball out before the rush arrives. As noted above, the Falcons had the worst pass defense in the NFL in 2014, so Quinn has his hands full. Upgrading the pass rush would be a start, but he's got to improve some of the coverage in the back end.

Signing a bevy of big-name free agents isn't necessarily a great answer to anything, but going out and getting a guy like Byron Maxwell would make a lot of sense for Quinn. It would reunite the two after a very successful season in 2014 in Seattle, and Maxwell could act as a conduit to spreading Quinn's defensive fundamentals and principals to younger corners like Desmond Trufant, Robert Alford and Ricardo Allen.

Desmond Trufant, photo via Getty Images

If Maxwell doesn't pan out for the Falcons, there are some other interesting names on the open market of course, and two players that could potentially reunite with Quinn under the same sort of plan would be Perrish Cox or Walter Thurmond. Both played in Seattle under Quinn -- Cox for a much shorter time -- but both know the system and could become starters at best, and depth at worst.

Of course, Quinn could decide against drafting a pass rusher in the first round and grab one of the top cornerbacks with his first pick. Trae Waynes, Jalen Collins, P.J. Williams, Kevin Johnson, Marcus Peters -- there are a lot of options and he'll likely have the pick of the litter if he so chooses. He could wait until the early second and still grab a highly talented player like Eric Rowe, Alex Carter or Byron Jones, all of whom fit the "Seattle profile" of long, athletic players.

Quinn has work to do at the safety position as well. It's a rough draft class at that position so it wouldn't surprise me to see him go get a veteran to fill a need there. Some mid-level (money-wise) guys to keep in mind are Jeron Johnson and Ron Parker. Johnson, again, has experience with Quinn and his system in Seattle, and Parker played in the Carroll system in 2012 so he would be a natural fit.

Bottom line, an infusion of talent in the secondary will be at or near the top of Dan Quinn's to-do list this offseason.

SB Nation presents: The post-combine mock draft

Establish the zone blocking run game

Quinn has brought Kyle Shanahan in to run the offense and that means that he will be installing the Shanahan zone blocking scheme. With the release of Steven Jackson, the Falcons appear ready to roll with Devonta Freeman as their number one back, for the moment. That said, Shanahan's recent history is littered with bigger backs who can not only make one cut and get up field, but lay a beating on opponents over the course of the game. Obviously, Quinn's had that in Seattle as well, so I think it will be a focus.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Rushing yards per game 118.2 114.6 87.3 77.9 93.6
Rushing attempts per game 31.1 (5th) 28.3 (11th) 23.6 (26th) 20.1 (32nd) 23.2 (27th)
Points per game 25.9 25.1 26.2 22.1 23.8
Rushing DOVA -8.4% (23rd) -7.3% (23rd) -17.2% (30th) -7.0% (21st) -9.8% (22nd)
Total off. DVOA 8.0% (9th) 6.1% (11th) 6.1% (12th) 3.2% (14th) 7.2% (11th)

Atlanta's running game, DVOA stats via Football Outsiders.

Shanahan's main guys over the past couple years have been Alfred Morris (224 pounds), Roy Helu (215), Terrance West (223), Isaiah Crowell (225) and Ben Tate (220), so I'd look at guys like Boise State's Jay Ajayi, Alabama's T.J. Yeldon, Florida State's Karlos Williams, Florida's Matt Jones, North Dakota State's Zach Zenner and Northern Iowa's David Johnson as potential fits (also, obviously, Georgia's Todd Gurley if he's there the early second round).

To hedge that bet, it wouldn't surprise me if the Falcons went after a mid-range to low-range running back in free agency as well. Justin Forsett has worked in the zone blocking scheme his whole career and had his best season yet in 2014. Roy Helu has a history in Shanahan's system and would make a ton of sense as a veteran stop-gap. Mark Ingram would make some sense as well.

Up front, Quinn and Shanahan need to also figure out what they're doing on the offensive line. Do their current players fit in the zone blocking scheme and/or can they acclimate to it? Typically, that system calls for quicker-footed, more athletic and sometimes undersized players. That's something the coaches need to figure out. If Oregon's Jake Fisher is sitting there in the early second round it may be tempting for both those guys to grab him right there and plug him in as a guard or tackle.

If the Falcons can get their ground game going, they've got a very good quarterback in Matt Ryan and receiver in Julio Jones with which to use to create explosive passes off of play action.

Build a new identity

The bottom line for Atlanta is they need to flush the last two seasons out of their system and re-establish themselves as an NFC powerhouse. They've got a lot of talent on both sides of the ball but need to fit it all together into a cohesive philosophy and identity.

Quinn should and will look to create a culture of toughness and physicality, much like he helped establish in Seattle, and he'll look for players with a lot of speed to plug in to both sides of the ball. He'll want to make his team relentless and demoralizing on offense while looking to intimidate you on defense. The Falcons need to reinvent themselves as badasses on both sides of the ball -- no more finesse, more balance and toughness -- and they've got some real pieces to do just that.

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