Sebastian Vettel Will Win the Formula 1 Title with Ferrari in 2016

It is going to happen at some point, Sebastian Vettel winning a Formula One championship with Ferrari. The question is: when?

Predictions are a dangerous game, particularly in a sport where it is difficult enough to forecast the winner of the next race, let alone a result one or more years down the road. Yet here we are, predicting not only that Vettel will add to his four titles, but the year he will do it.

And that year is 2016—next season.

As Vettel was winning four straight drivers' championships with Red Bull from 2010 to 2013, there were whispers he was only winning because he had a superior car and that he would be exposed if he moved to another team. Michael Schumacher, for example, Vettel's countryman and boyhood hero, won titles with two different teams, although he also benefited from superior machinery for most of those years.

But Vettel almost didn't need to make a move to be unmasked. Last year, his longtime team-mate Mark Webber was replaced by a younger, hungrier Australian, Daniel Ricciardo. The new Aussie promptly rearranged the established running order at Red Bull and consistently beat Vettel over the course of the season.

At the Japanese Grand Prix in September, Vettel surprisingly announced that he was leaving Red Bull at the end of the season. Team principal Christian Horner thought Ricciardo's pace had something to do with Vettel's decision, per the BBC's Andrew Benson. Perhaps he also had one eye on a Schumacher-style legacy.

In his first six races with Ferrari, Vettel has erased any doubt about his ability on the race track. In five of those races, he has beaten his new team-mate, Kimi Raikkonen, another world champion who struggled in 2014. Vettel also pulled off a shocking victory in Malaysia, demonstrating that the Maranello revival is ahead of schedule.

That trajectory is one reason why Vettel will win it all next year.

After the Malaysia win, Mercedes executive director Toto Wolff told the official F1 site, "It clearly shows that this year is not going to be an easy one for us—gone are the illusions of a walk in the park!" Since then, he has often reiterated his concern about Ferrari's pace.

At this point last season, Mercedes' Nico Rosberg had a 61-point lead over third-placed Fernando Alonso (the man Vettel replaced at Ferrari). Currently, Rosberg's team-mate Lewis Hamilton is just 28 points clear of Vettel.

Ferrari's improvement has been spectacular. They have already scored six podium finishes in 2015, three more than they did in all of 2014. Still, Ferrari are not quite close enough to challenge for a title this season, but 2016 will be different.

Mercedes still have a clear advantage, but eventually the law of diminishing returns will kick in and make it more difficult for the reigning champions to make significant improvements. The field will then start to close up, and Ferrari are at the head of the chasing pack.

According to the FIA, F1's governing body, Ferrari also started the season having used fewer engine tokens than Mercedes, meaning the Italian team have more room to upgrade their engine throughout the year.

Another reason to bet on Vettel for 2016 is that it may be Ferrari's best chance to win a title for the foreseeable future.

Consider this: After struggling with the new regulations for last year, Ferrari have sorted themselves out and are closing the gap. The regulations will be relatively stable through next season but bigger changes are on the horizon for 2017.

Maybe Ferrari will nail whatever changes do come down, but there is an equal chance that Mercedes or someone else will do a better job and the Scuderia will be playing catch-up again. Knowing that, perhaps Ferrari will push just that little bit extra to get a shot at the title in 2016.

Vettel's chances are also increased by Mercedes' refusal to name a No. 1 driver. By treating Hamilton and Rosberg equally and allowing them to race, there is always the potential that they will take crucial points from each other.

In 2007, McLaren tried a similar approach with Hamilton and Alonso, allowing Raikkonen to sneak in and steal the drivers' title by a single point.

Whether Ferrari admit it or not, Vettel is their No. 1 driver, the golden boy brought in to revive a downtrodden team. Raikkonen, on the other hand, despite his pedigree, has been warned by team principal Maurizio Arrivabene that his contract for next year is dependent on his performance for the rest of 2015, per ESPN F1's Laurence Edmondson.

Of course, none of this is a guarantee that Vettel will be champion again, next year or ever. But the signs are encouraging. Both he and Ferrari have rebounded from disastrous 2014 campaigns and are stalking the Mercs—still from a distance but slowly closing in.

Vettel in 2016 may not be a perfect prediction, but it has to be more accurate than Mercedes' strategy computers, right?

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