WASHINGTON — Based on the Pentagon's and congressional budget submissions, the credit rating agency Moody's expects the DoD's FY 2016 budget to be higher than the limits set under sequestration.

While the actual dollar amount remains to be seen, it will likely fall somewhere between the Pentagon's baseline request of $534.3 billion and the House and Senate GOP budgets unveiled this week at $499 billion, Moody's sector comment states. The congressional budgets stay under the caps set by 2011's Budget Control Act, but supplements with $90 billion in overseas contingency operations (OCO) funding. The Pentagon's request includes $50.9 billion in OCO funds.

"We believe that an improving US economy coupled with elevated geopolitical risk is finally prompting acceptance of both the ability and need for a strategy-driven defense budget as opposed to the predominately budget-driven defense strategies that have largely shaped US defense spending since 2010," the analysts wrote.

Moody's thinks the outlook is good news for major US and NATO member defense contractors such as General Dynamics, Boeing, Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman and Huntington Ingalls. Moody's projects single-digit growth for the baseline defense budget through FY 2020, which also helps shorter-cycle contractors like L-3 Communications and Exelis.

These modest gains are not enough to reverse Moody's overall unfavorable outlook on the defense sector, however. It will still take congressional action to override sequestration, and while there appears to be agreement forming on lifting the caps for defense, there is little indication that congress is building a broader consensus on other issues, the comment notes.

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