NFL Picks & Predictions Week 8: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Last week was a bittersweet one for your boy, the esteemed captain of #TeamDegenerate.

I ended up going 10-5 against the spread—raising my overall mark to 11 games over .500 in the process—which I felt great about. However, all five of my losses came on my best bets. And of course, I played my five best bets in the Hilton SuperContest (where I'm sponsored by the fine folks at OddsShark) and went 0-5.

Think about that. I went 10-5 and lost the five games I liked the most. While part of me seethed with anger and had to resist the urge to slam my head into a wall, another part of me felt like Ron Burgundy when Baxter ate an entire wheel of cheese: I wasn't even mad. I was kind of amazed.

This week, I'll be aiming for a similar overall result, but more wins for my best bets. If you wanted to fade those choices, hell, I wouldn't be mad at ya. But just know that yours truly feels prettay, prettay good (Larry David voice) about the best bet choices this week.

If that didn't just guarantee another 0-5 week, I'm not sure what would have.

Here is my Ultimate Bettor's Guide for NFL Week 8.

Total Season ATS: 57-47-3 (including San Diego on Thursday night)

Total Season Best Bets ATS: 15-20

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Final Score: Denver 35, San Diego 21 (Denver covers -9)

OK, this one was an aggravating loss.

I played San Diego +9 and felt amazing about it. The Chargers played the Broncos tough three times last year, and I didn't believe this game had blowout potential.

Unfortunately, the fact that no one on the planet—especially NFL officials—knows what a fumble is ended up costing me.

The call at the end of the first half that went Denver's way was preposterously poor. If that wasn't a fumble by Broncos return man Andre Caldwell, I legitimately don't know what is.

I've been watching the NFL for over 25 years, and this entire time, I thought I knew what a fumble was. Silly me!

That play ended up swinging the game, as Denver tacked on a touchdown before halftime. Even though I wagered on the losing side, I still think it was the right call. The Chargers should have covered.

Now excuse me while I push about seventy pins into my Dean Blandino voodoo doll.

The Line: Detroit at Atlanta (+3.5)

Forgive me if you will, but this East Coaster's excitement level for Sunday's game in London between the Lions and "host" Falcons is off the charts.

This contest is going to be played at 9:30 a.m. ET (6:30 a.m. PT), which is pretty much paradise for any card-carrying member of #TeamDegenerate. Wait, you mean I get to wake up and bet my hard-earned money on an NFL game before 10 in the morning? Sign me up!

Nothing makes a gambler happier than getting to wager on games literally all day; it's what makes the first two days of the NCAA tournament such a magical event. Personally, I'd be cool with one NFL game a week starting extra early (somehow, I feel like this was Commissioner Goodell's nefarious plan to hook fans into being OK with an NFL team in London, which is one of the worst ideas in the history of ideas).

And I believe that I'll be off to a good start on Sunday before the regular slate of games kicks off at 1 p.m. ET.

You see, the Falcons stink. Their offensive line is miserable. Their embattled head coach, Mike Smith, is more bland than second-rate fish and chips. Their defense has no talent. Other than that, they're super!

Meanwhile, the Lions have been rolling. At 5-2, they represent one of the league's best stories. In what has to be considered one of the bigger upsets of the millennium, new coach  Jim Caldwell seems to have the pulse of his team, all while looking like he's ready to succumb to narcolepsy at any moment. The defense has been solid, and they've weathered the storm without hobbled receiver Calvin Johnson.

Whether Johnson ends up playing or not is immaterial. The Lions are going to roll. Why? Because they're good and the Falcons stink.

I'm going to have money on a game tomorrow morning at 9:30 a.m. ET! 

Cheers, London!

And for more on this game and the rest of the upcoming slate of action, peep my guy Michael Schottey's Ultimate Guide to NFL Week 8.

The Pick: Detroit -3.5

The Line: Seattle at Carolina (+5.5)

To the fine members of #TeamDegenerate: I simply cannot advocate betting on this game.

I foresee one of two scenarios unfolding, and that makes it a risky proposition.

Scenario No. 1: The Seahawks, desperate and determined to prove that they're still a playoff-caliber club, come out and absolutely destroy a less-talented Panthers team. Russell Wilson plays a great game, the Legion of Boom dominates and everyone is back on the bandwagon of the defending Super Bowl champions come Monday morning.

Scenario No. 2: The Panthers lead for most of the game, only to watch Wilson lead the Seahawks to a stirring comeback victory, culminating in a game-winning field goal as time expires.

I personally believe it'll be the latter, and Carolina will keep it close before the Seahawks end up winning.

But I don't feel great about it. So unless I really get the degenerate itch (always a possibility), I'll be laying off this contest entirely.

The Pick: Carolina +5.5

The Line: Baltimore at Cincinnati (+1)

In Week 1, the Bengals went on the road and beat the Ravens, 23-16, in a game that was not as close as the final score would indicate.

And somehow, they're now underdogs at home against Baltimore in Week 8?

It's true that the Ravens have been playing excellent football, and it's also true that the Bengals have looked like a middling outfit over the past three games (two losses and a tie). But Cincinnati as a home underdog represents too much value to pass up.

Give me the Bengals to win outright.

The Pick: Cincinnati +1

The Line: Miami at Jacksonville (+6.5)

Yes, I am aware of the fact that the Miami Dolphins nearly beat the Packers and then shellacked the Bears in back-to-back weeks.

And yeah, I'm aware that Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill is playing the best football of his career.

And duh, everyone knows that the Jaguars are one of the worst teams in the league.

But ask yourself this question: Are the 2014 Miami Dolphins good enough to be favored by nearly a touchdown against anyone on the road?

I don't think they are.

Plus, the Jaguars are coming off their first win of the season and have to be feeling good about themselves.

The Dolphins will win the game, but the Jaguars will stay inside the number. 

The Pick: Jacksonville +6.5

The Line: St. Louis at Kansas City (-7)

Coach Jeff Fisher and his St. Louis Rams have officially entered the "Screw it, we're letting it rip" portion of their season, and this gambler is ridiculously excited by the thought.

Last week, Fisher's team pulled out all the stops to beat the Seahawks: A fake punt deep in their own territory with the game on the line and a very well-planned punt return that went for a touchdown. 

And Fisher was right to take those chances. He knows this Rams team isn't going anywhere, so playing conservative will lead to losses. He's willing to be more a swashbuckling gambler, which should make every member of #TeamDegenerate smile a mile wide.

Fisher will be going full throttle to win, while Chiefs coach Andy Reid generally coaches with both hands wrapped around his own throat. Plus, I'm not yet sold that the Chiefs are good enough to be a touchdown favorite against a team like St. Louis, even at Arrowhead Stadium.

I'll plunk down my hard-earned money on Fisher and feel good about it, thank you very much. As for you? You can bet on Reid and tear your hair out in the fourth quarter.

The Pick: St. Louis (+7)

The Line: Chicago at New England (-6)

Show me something, Chicago. Show me something, Marc Trestman. Show me something, Jay Cutler. Show me something, Brandon Marshall.

As it concerns the 2014 Chicago Bears, this is it. Sunday's game at the Patriots is of the put-up-or-shut-up variety. If the Bears lose in hideous fashion, I'll be ready to throw dirt on their playoff aspirations.

After last week's grotesque home loss to Miami, Marshall spearheaded an ugly locker room incident that could be heard by the entire assembled media. He reportedly called out Cutler and then blasted the team's underachieving offense to the press.

So after all the yelling and histrionics, can the Bears shut up and put up 30 on an injury-ravaged Patriots defense?

New England is missing star defensive end Chandler Jones and linebacker Jerod Mayo among others. Cutler should have time to throw, and with the myriad weapons Chicago has on offense, he should be able to find success.

Of course, the key word in that sentence is "should." With these Bears, nothing is ever a sure thing.

Would it shock me in the least if the Bears imploded and the Patriots won by 17? No.

But I'm willing to bet this is the week that the Bears offense does put it together. The bottom line is that they have too much talent to be struggling to this degree. Plus, if Cutler and company possess even a modicum of pride, they'll go out and sling it all over Gillette Stadium.

I'm going to be really pissed when Cutler throws his second interception of the first quarter and New England goes up 14-0, aren't I?

The Pick: Chicago +6

The Line: Buffalo at NY Jets (-3)

There are a number of things I just can't wait to witness when the Bills take on the Jets at MetLife Stadium this Sunday.

No. 1: Bills quarterback Kyle Orton, in the hopes that he's in the midst of growing new and outrageously disgusting facial hair.

No. 2: Electric Bills rookie receiver Sammy Watkins, who appears earmarked to go down as the franchise's most beloved player since the early '90s.

No. 3: The Jets fans showering the home team with boos. Even if they end up winning, you just know that's happening at some point.

No. 4: Backup quarterback Michael Vick somehow receiving more touches than newly acquired receiver Percy Harvin, causing Jets fans everywhere to curse into their beers and mutter "Mornhinweg!" (the team's offensive coordinator) in the same tone Jerry Seinfeld would exclaim "Newman!"

So yeah, I'm pretty jacked for this game.

And I think the Bills are just flat-out better than the dumpster fire known as the Jets.

The Pick: Buffalo +3

The Line: Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-2.5)

Since signing a big-money free-agent contract with the Buccaneers prior to the 2012 season, star wide receiver Vincent Jackson has watched his team go 12-26, including a dreadful 1-5 mark this year.

And the worst part is that the 2014 Buccaneers—coached by Lovie Smith—could end up being worse than the outfits fielded by Greg Schiano in 2012 and 2013. So despite having his coffers filled with the Glazer's money, Jackson can't be happy with the on-field results in Tampa.

But there is a silver lining for Jackson. Per Greg Auman of the Tampa Bay Times, Jackson has heard his name mentioned in trade rumors, and with the deadline approaching this Tuesday, it's not outside the realm of possibility that the Bucs could look to move their handsomely-paid receiver to a contender.

Jackson said he wants to remain in Tampa, but let's be real: That ain't true. No way homie wants to play out the string with Mike Glennon and that atrocious defense. If Jackson truly wants to stay in Tampa, then I never want to gamble again, and this just in: I'm dying to gamble this weekend.

So Jackson can use Sunday's game against the Vikings to showcase his wares to the rest of the league. Could you imagine Jackson in, say, the Patriots offense, catching passes from Tom Brady? It'd be awesome to see, and Jackson knows it.

I think Jackson goes off on Sunday to the tune of 100 yards and two touchdowns and helps the Bucs eek out a close win.

And if he wakes up on Wednesday morning still a member of the Buccaneers, let's pour one out for number 83.

The Pick: Tampa Bay -2.5

The Line: Houston at Tennessee (+3)

The man in the picture above is Tennessee Titans rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger, who will be making his first NFL start this Sunday against division rival Houston.

And damn it, that picture does not do the kid jealous. 

Do yourself a favor and check out this one. Yes, that's right. Matthew McConaughey's character from Dazed and Confused is now a starting quarterback in the NFL.

I cannot adequately express in words how badly I want to get fall-down drunk with Zach Mettenberger. Seriously. The kid looks like he's ready to funnel 10 beers and then puke all over his sneakers. He's getting set to make his NFL debut against J.J. Watt and the Texans, and homeboy is posting selfies on Instagram with a mustache so ridiculous that it looks like an especially hairy caterpillar died above his upper lip.

I absolutely love it.

You see, I'm a degenerate at heart, and Mettenberger looks like one of us. He strikes me as the type of dude that has probably projectile vomited in the back of a dive bar. 

That's the kind of guy I want to plunk my hard-earned cash on.

That, and the fact that everyone and their mother is picking the Texans to roll, despite the fact that they're still quarterbacked by turnover machine Ryan Fitzpatrick.

I'm all-in on Zach Mettenberger. Let's get 'em, kid.

The Pick: Tennessee +3

The Line: Philadelphia at Arizona (-1.5)

Normally, excitement for games is reserved for the players on the field. But Sunday's game between the 5-1 Eagles and 5-1 Cardinals in Arizona represents a rare circumstance.

I legitimately cannot wait for the coaching matchup between Philadelphia's Chip Kelly and Arizona's Bruce Arians.

Two of the NFL's brightest minds and finest motivators will match wits in a game that could go a long way toward determining playoff position in the NFC. It's going to be fascinating to watch.

I find these two teams to be pretty evenly matched, so I'm going to roll with the home team. If the game were in Philadelphia, I'd take the Eagles, but it's not, so I'm going with Arizona.

Plus, I love the fact that I'm laying only 1.5 points, because this spread should really be Arizona -3.

The Pick: Arizona -1.5

The Line: Oakland at Cleveland (-6.5)

Repeat after me:

Too many points.

Too many points.

Too many points.

Ya feel me?

The Pick: Oakland +6.5

The Line: Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (+3.5)

Have you ever seen a cartoon depicting a person with both an angel and a devil on his respective shoulders?

Usually, the dude in question is in the midst of a super-tough decision, and both the angel and devil (who are usually mini versions of the person dressed in either white or red) take turns pleading their case for the person to act a certain way. 

Right now, that person is me, but instead of an angel, I have NFL analyst-me on one shoulder and grizzled gambler-me on the other.

The NFL analyst is begging me to take the Colts. He's reminding me that they've won five straight games and have looked spectacular in doing so. And he just smacked me upside the head and screamed in my ear that they still employ Luck. 

But the grizzled gambler keeps mentioning that over 85 percent of the betting public is backing the Colts, making the Steelers the smart play. Because, you know, the casinos didn't build themselves.

What am I do to do? How am I to proceed?

Sorry, NFL analyst me. *flicks him off my shoulder*

The grizzled gambler wins out this time.

And yeah, I'm going to be super salty when the Colts win by 24.

The Pick: Pittsburgh +3.5

The Line: Green Bay at New Orleans (-1.5)

Oh, hey, look! The NFL analyst and grizzled gambler are back to plead their cases for the Packers and Saints on Sunday night!

NFL Analyst: Nick, you LOVE gambling on Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers. In fact, it's your favorite pastime, along with getting rejected in spectacular fashion at least once every time you set foot in a bar. And the Packers are on a roll! Rodgers is killing it, Green Bay looks like it could win the Super Bowl, and the Saints have been brutal! I know you picked the Saints to win it all before the year (moron), but it's time to jump off that bandwagon. In your football heart of hearts, there's no way you can justify taking the Saints!

Grizzled Gambler: OK, he makes good points. And hell, I love it when you bet on Rodgers, too. But this is a home game for the Saints, and they crush it at home more than Zach Mettenberger did on Instagram this week. Running back Mark Ingram is back and ready to roll, the crowd is going to be fired up, and last I checked, they still have a guy named Drew Brees. Quite frankly, that's all they need! And did I mention the Saints are playing at home?

OK, grizzled gambler. You had me at Zach Mettenberger.

The Pick: New Orleans -1.5

The Line: Washington at Dallas (-9.5)

The Washington Redskins are starting Colt McCoy at quarterback in this game.

I repeat, the Washington Redskins are starting Colt McCoy at quarterback in this game.

Gamble on McCoy and the Redskins at your own risk. I'll roll with the 6-1 Cowboys at home, thank you very much.

The Pick: Dallas -9.5

Best Bets of the Week ATS

1.) New Orleans (-1.5 vs. Green Bay)

2.) Detroit (-3.5 at Atlanta, in London)

3.) Jacksonville (+6.5 vs. Miami)

4.) Cincinnati (+1 vs. Baltimore)

5.) Pittsburgh (+3.5 vs. Indianapolis)

Best "Under" Bets of the Week

1.) Green Bay at New Orleans (under 55 points)

2.) Detroit at Atlanta (under 47 points)

Best "Over" Bets of the Week

1.) Chicago at New England (over 51 points)

2.) Buffalo at NY Jets (over 40.5 points)

Survivor Pick of the Week

Dallas over Washington

Love the picks? Hate them? Tweet Nick here and let him know!