Ranking the Top Norris Trophy Candidates Early in the 2014-15 NHL Season

Carol Schram@pool88X.com LogoFeatured ColumnistOctober 23, 2014

Ranking the Top Norris Trophy Candidates Early in the 2014-15 NHL Season

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    With an NHL regular season that stretches over six months, there are bound to be plenty of highs and lows around the league before the votes are tabulated for end-of-season awards.

    Year after year, voting for the Norris Trophy for the league's best defenseman tends to hew pretty close to a standard pattern: rewarding big-minute defensemen who play for very good teams and usually rack up some serious points on the power play. 

    Pedigree is also important. Defensemen seem to need to have high name recognition and visibility in order to secure votes from members of the Professional Hockey Writers Association.

    Defensemen like T.J Brodie of the Calgary Flames and Johnny Boychuk of the New York Islanders have had strong starts in the new season, but at this point, the Norris Trophy candidates who look like they'll stand strong at the end of the season are pretty familiar.

    Back in August, I previewed this season's contenders. Here's a look at how the best of the bunch are faring so far this year.

    All stats courtesy of NHL.com.

6. Victor Hedman: Tampa Bay Lightning

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    USA TODAY Sports

    My Preseason Ranking: I ranked Hedman fifth on my list of potential Norris candidates back in August, citing his ever-increasing role on the improving Tampa Bay Lightning.

    His Season So Far: Hedman's first week was dazzling. For a brief moment, he led the entire NHL in scoring after accumulating seven points in the first three games of the season.

    Unfortunately, Hedman's momentum was derailed when he broke his finger after blocking a shot in Vancouver on October 18. The finger required surgery, which will sideline the big Swede for four to six weeks, per The Canadian Press (via NHL.com).

    Projection for 2014-15: My colleague Jonathan Willis wrote a blistering piece earlier this week criticizing the media for overhyping Hedman's Norris Trophy chances before his injury. 

    Willis disapproves of the idea that nominated defensemen are expected to display power-play flash and offensive razzle-dazzle. Last season, Hedman showed that he can offer that element in his game, and he's still improving at just 23 years of age.

    As long as his finger heals without complication, expect to see Hedman's name back in the conversation for the Norris when he returns to action, likely in late November.

5. Drew Doughty: Los Angeles Kings

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    My Preseason Ranking: With the memory of the Los Angeles Kings' outstanding Stanley Cup run still fresh in my mind, I picked Drew Doughty as my top choice for the 2015 Norris Trophy back in August.

    His Season So Far: Doughty has been fine but not as spectacular as some of his rivals. He's playing just over 27 minutes a game—sixth among defensemen—and is a plus-four. But Doughty has just two assists so far and has no points on the power play.

    Though the Kings are known for their ability to coast through the regular season and crank it up come playoff time, Los Angeles is 4-1-1 in the early going this year and keeping pace so far with San Jose and Anaheim.

    Projection for 2014-15: At just 24, Doughty has already amassed a body of work that makes him one of the league's most prominent defensemen. As he matures, he'll learn to control his emotions better on the ice, which will help take his game up another notch.

    The Kings like to tread quietly until April. Expect Doughty to lay back and let other defensemen dominate the Norris Trophy conversation, though he is no less critical to his team's success.

4. Duncan Keith: Chicago Blackhawks

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    USA TODAY Sports

    My Preseason Ranking: After Duncan Keith won the 2014 Norris Trophy, I ranked him fourth among this year's candidates in August. I dropped him in my rankings because I'm concerned about his ongoing ability to play hard defensive minutes.

    His Season So Far: Good defense has been the centerpiece of the Chicago Blackhawks' season thus far. Through five games, they're undefeated and have given up just seven goals.

    Duncan Keith is ranked eighth among NHL defensemen at 26:12 minutes per game. He has posted two goals, two assists, and an even plus-minute rating so far. Like last season, Keith is enjoying most of his team's power-play minutes, and the second pairing of Niklas Hjalmarsson and Johnny Oduya do the heavy lifting shorthanded and at even strength.

    Projection for 2014-15: If Chicago continues to keep pucks out of the net, expect Keith's reputation to remain intact. Hjalmarsson and Oduya may be the Blackhawks' secret defensive weapons, but Keith is a face of the franchise. He'll likely be in Norris contention again in 2015.

3. Ryan Suter: Minnesota Wild

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    USA TODAY Sports

    My Preseason Ranking: I ranked Suter second among Norris prospects for 2014-15, citing his league-leading ice time and the upward trajectory of his Minnesota Wild.

    His Season So Far: Though the Wild boast a 2-2 record, the team has surrendered just four goals so far this season over the course of four games.

    As usual, Suter is leading the NHL in ice time, averaging 28:50 minutes per game. He has a goal and two assists to go along with his plus-three rating through four games.

    Projection for 2014-15: Suter is terrific defensively but has one glaring weakness: power-play production. Last year, he was in the league's top 10 in power-play minutes but generated just 17 points with the man advantage in 82 games. That's well off the pace of league leaders Erik Karlsson and Keith Yandle, who scored 31 points each.

    This season is starting off even worse. Suter ranks second in the NHL with an average of 5:52 in power-play time, but the Wild have yet to score their first power-play goal. If Suter can crack that code and become a dependable scorer with the man advantage, he'll increase his Norris Trophy odds considerably.

2. P.K. Subban: Montreal Canadiens

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    My Preseason Ranking: I ranked P.K. Subban third on my preseason list, figuring the 2013 Norris winner would show the best stuff of his career after signing his eight-year, $72 million contract over the summer.

    His Season So Far: The Canadiens are off to a great start with a 6-1-0 record, and P.K. Subban is ranked 16th among defensemen with 24:32 minutes of ice time per game. He's just a plus-one, but he's scoring highlight-reel goals and playing in the center of the action.

    Projection for 2014-15: The Habs look poised to take the next step this season—winning the Atlantic Division and advancing deep into the playoffs. Subban will be in the spotlight all the way and will receive serious Norris consideration at season's end.

1. Shea Weber: Nashville Predators

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    USA TODAY Sports

    My Preseason Ranking: Concerned about Shea Weber's ability to adapt to a more offensive system under new Nashville Predators coach Peter Laviolette, I ranked the perennial Norris finalist eighth on my preseason list of candidates.

    His Season So Far: Fantastic. Nashville's undefeated through six games with a 4-0-2 record. Weber is tied for the lead among defensemen with three goals—two of which have come at even strength—and boasts a plus-five rating.

    One thing that hasn't changed is Weber's predisposition to playing big minutes. The 29-year-old ranks second in the NHL in the early going behind his old partner Ryan Suter, averaging 28:45 minutes per game.

    Projection for 2014-15: Early in the year, Weber told Ryan Kennedy of The Hockey News that his team needed to improve at both ends of the ice. "We have to be harder to play against," he said. "Everyone talks about offense and we do need to score goals, but we also need to be better defensively."

    So far, captain Weber and his team are accomplishing those objectives. After the Predators dropped to 23rd in the league in goals against in 2013-14, Nashville has surrendered just 10 goals in its first six games this season. 

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