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NFL Teams Shouldn't Let Salary-Cap Concerns Stop Them from Re-Signing Superstars

Ty Schalter@tyschalterX.com LogoNFL National Lead WriterJuly 1, 2015

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson answers questions during a press conference following an NFL football minicamp Thursday, June 18, 2015, in Renton, Wash. (AP Photo/Joe Nicholson)
Joe Nicholson/Associated Press

Salary Cap Hell: It's the nightmare of every NFL general manager, coach, player and fan. Beloved franchise stars put out front with For Sale signs on them. Valuable role players and trustworthy backups released outright. Doleful parents in suddenly outdated jerseys forced to console children crying at the departure of their favorite players.

This worst-case scenario is what holds every owner's pen, keeps fans from cheering big free-agent signings and has everyone up in arms over whether a 26-year-old quarterback with two Pro Bowl appearances, two conference championships and a Super Bowl ring is worth a market-setting contract.

It's why an owner who happily sets records for opulence on and off the field has been publicly gun-shy about paying the best wideout in the game anywhere near what he's worth.

It's why there's hemming and hawing and hand-wringing galore about keeping a nucleus together and getting the right player at the right price.

This tight-stringed approach ignores two absolute truths about the NFL: 1) It's a star-driven league, and 2) Cap Hell isn't real.

That's right: Cap Hell is now a myth, a legend from back when teams had no idea how to structure contracts and revenues were largely flat. In today's NFL, even the most egregious albatrosses are shed in a year or two—and even if not, revenues are growing so fast it doesn't matter.

Think about it: When was the last time a contending franchise truly had to dismantle itself for cap reasons?

In 2012, the Baltimore Ravens won the Super Bowl, yielded to quarterback Joe Flacco's unprecedented leverage and let several key contributors walk. But they barely missed the playoffs in 2013; last season they won 10 games in the hardest division in the NFL and almost upset the eventual Super Bowl champions in the playoffs.

Going into 2014, the Ravens have one of the best, deepest rosters in the NFL. ESPN Insider's Sam Monson graded their roster third-best in the NFL, and Sports Illustrated's Peter King power-ranked them No. 1. In hindsight, losing Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Anquan Boldin, Dannell Ellerbee and Paul Kruger in one swift blow didn't hurt the franchise at all.

The last time a contending team was truly forced into a fire sale was 2005, when the Tennessee Titans entered the offseason $27 million over the cap and had to release three Pro Bowlers (defensive tackle Kevin Carter, cornerback Samari Rolle and receiver Derrick Mason) outright, as well as other veterans.

But today, even teams that go wildly over the cap (See: Saints, New Orleans) don't have to do much trimming to fit, because the cap keeps going up:

Credit: Ty Schalter/Bleacher Report

The relatively smooth curve up from 2002-2009 reflects the steady growth of NFL revenues over that stretch. The uncapped year of 2010, the shrinkage of the cap and near-zero growth from 2011-2013 reflects, well, the owners eating the players' lunch in the 2011 CBA negotiations.

Getting a smaller slice of a bigger pie sounded OK on paper—but after growing by 80 percent from 2002 to 2009, the cap was just six percent larger in 2013 than it was in 2008.

As Bleacher Report's Jason Cole pointed out in 2012 to Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio, this may have included some back-room dealings between the NFL and NFLPA, borrowing against cap gains in 2013 to avoid more apparent cap shrinkage in 2011 and 2012.

Regardless of the reason, the cap's steady state is a thing of the past—and so are the egregious rookie contracts that partially brought on the lockout. The revenues of the NFL's latest TV deals are kicking into the equations, and the cap has made jumps of roughly $10 million in each of the last two seasons. With the new CBS Thursday Night Football simulcast package bringing in $300 million in new cash, Florio reports the 2016 cap could be as high as 160 million.

To put it in perspective: The $25 million per year number Wilson casually floated in a recent interview with ESPN, again per Florio, could simply be added on to the 2014 cap number and still fit under the 2016 cap. In the real world, per OvertheCap.com, the Seahawks currently have $110 million in 2016 cap commitments.

Are the Seahawks better off trying to squeeze re-signings and additions into a mere $25 million, or rolling around in $50 million of filthy lucre but having no quarterback?

This is the other side of the coin: The NFL is a star-driven league. Difference-makers are difference-makers.

As Stu Woo wrote for the Wall Street Journal after the 2013 season, the most successful teams have been those getting great quarterback play from young (cheap) players and splashing most of their cash on two or three big stars elsewhere. Most surprisingly, dead money from failed contracts wasn't a hindrance—2013 playoffs teams, on average, carried more dead money than non-playoff teams.

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

"If you're competing for a championship," Polian told Woo, signing stars to massive deals you know they won't play through the end of is "a thing to do," a price you pay, for having the kind of talent that wins games. Those bold moves, though, came with a price. In the flat-cap era of the last five years, signing a player to a big contract and not getting great production didn't just mean you missed out on a title, but you missed out on other, better players.

The downside of Flacco's enormous contract was obvious—but in hindsight, the downside of letting Flacco walk was much worse.

In this new bull market, the risk has flipped. Instead of league-wide austerity, where teams are trying to wring as much production as they can out of cheap players, every team will have more cap room than they know what do do with and few players to spend it on. Instead of seeing each new contract as a risky gamble of precious free-agent dollars, teams should be much more afraid of losing a franchise-anchoring star and having no way to replace him.

If the Cowboys lose Bryant after this season, one of the league's best offenses suddenly consists of an offensive line, an aging Tony Romo, an ancient Jason Witten and a bunch of spare parts. If Wilson walks, he'll be the first great young quarterback to hit the market in years—and the last for a very, very long time. 

NFL teams need to get wise to the new economic reality of the NFL, or risk getting stuck with millions of dollars that can't buy a win.