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NBA Conference Finals Prove Postseason Elite Live by the 3, Thrive by the 3

Grant Hughes@@gt_hughesX.com LogoNational NBA Featured ColumnistMay 21, 2015

USA Today

This year's NBA champion will be a jump-shooting team, and that's going to make some people think.

The Golden State Warriors, Houston Rockets, Atlanta Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers devoted a higher percentage of their regular-season offensive possessions to three-point shots than any other teams in the league this year, per NBA.com.

And they're all that's left of a 16-team field.

So much for dying by the three.

One of them will win a title in June, which will fly in the faces of many vocal and otherwise knowledgeable critics—like New York Knicks president Phil Jackson:

Phil Jackson @PhilJackson11

NBA analysts give me some diagnostics on how 3pt oriented teams are faring this playoffs...seriously, how's it goink?

And Los Angeles Lakers head coach Byron Scott, via Baxter Holmes of ESPN.com:

Baxter Holmes @Baxter

I asked Lakers coach Byron Scott about his philosophy on 3-pointers. "I don't believe it wins championships. (It) gets you to the playoffs."

And Charles Barkley, per Rusty Simmons of the San Francisco Chronicle: "[The Warriors have] had a terrific season. But I don’t like jump-shooting teams. I don’t think you can make enough jumpers to win four series in a row. I’ve said that for 25 years, not just now."

The Warriors may or may not be the team that wins four series in a row. But if they don't end up doing it, one of three other like-minded, three-happy clubs will.

To be fair to Jackson, Barkley and the litany of other cliche-ridden tweets and message-board posts denying the value of the three, the appeal of their outdated position is easy to understand.

PHOENIX - JUNE 20:  Charles Barkley #34 of the Phoenix Suns battles for position against Sean Williams #42 of the Chicago Bulls in Game Six of the 1993 NBA Finals on June 20, 1993 at th America West Arena in Phoenix, Arizona.  The Bulls won 99-98.  NOTE T
Andrew D. Bernstein/Getty Images

It's been drummed into our heads for years that the playoffs are somehow different—that there, unlike the regular season, winning and losing hinges on physical power and exertion of will.

In the post. At the rim. Down low. One-on-one. In the thick of battle.

But never beyond the arc.

Infantry win postseason games. Not snipers or strategists.

It's a convenient way of thinking that feeds into the narrative that the playoffs are tests of strength rather than precision or smarts.

Though this season's remaining field makes the inaccuracy of that narrative obvious, there have been indications for a while that it was wrong.

According to Jesse Blancarte of Basketball-Insiders.com: "Seven of the last 10 championship teams increased their per game three-point field goals once they got to the playoffs, showing a heightened dependence and emphasis on three-pointers in postseason play."

That trend is reflective of a league that, as a whole, has increasingly embraced the value of the three-point shot, as this chart with data from Basketball-Reference.com reflects:

The uptick shows how more and more teams are figuring out the importance of three-point shooting. And some of the best offenses are swapping out especially inefficient possession types for those threes.

The four teams still playing right now are the most obvious proof.

Because in addition to using a higher percentage of their possessions to chuck threes than anybody else, they've also largely abandoned post-up plays.

Only the Rockets, who have always had to feed Dwight Howard a steady diet of touches on the block to keep him happy, ranked above the 50th percentile in post-up usage during the regular season.

Percentage of Possessions Devoted to Post-Ups in 2014-15
TeamPercentageLeague Rank
Atlanta Hawks5%30
Cleveland Cavaliers8.4%16
Golden State Warriors5.9%25
Houston Rockets9.3%13
NBA.com

As you can see, the other three teams weren't so keen on dumping the ball into the post.

Anecdotally, the three-pointer has been on conspicuous display in both conference finals series. Stephen Curry buried six treys in a Game 1 win against the Rockets (giving him three consecutive contests with at least six made threes), and J.R. Smith gave his Cavs an early advantage by canning eight threes in a Game 1 victory against the Hawks.

Isolated instances, sure, but we're far more likely to see games like those influence series outcomes from now on than we are to see a dominant post-up player bludgeon his way to 40 points on the block. Mostly because there are no such players left, and even if there were, no sane offense would use its possessions that way.

This recognition of the three-pointer's value is still developing. Jackson's Knicks, Scott's Lakers and a handful of other teams aren't on board yet.

But they'll get there.

And when the entire NBA is firing off treys at historic rates, something strange will happen: The league will get back a piece of its past as it barrels into the future.

The most notable rule changes in NBA history—widening the lane, outlawing goaltending, the elimination of hand-checking, the addition of the offensive foul—were designed to inhibit the biggest, most physically dominant players.

Quietly, the league has always preferred skill, precision and smarts over strength.

Now, a handful of teams are showing that same preference. And one of them is going to win a ring.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter @gt_hughes.