NFL Predictions Week 9: Expert Consensus Projections

Gary Davenport@@IDPSharksX.com LogoNFL AnalystOctober 30, 2014

NFL Predictions Week 9: Expert Consensus Projections

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    As hard as it seems to believe, by the time Week 9 is in the books, we'll already have hit November.

    The NFL season will also have moved into the second half. Some teams, like the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos, will spend Week 9 locked in titanic struggles that could have a huge impact on the playoff picture.

    Others, such as the Oakland Raiders and New York Jets, are doing little more at this point than jockeying for position in next May's NFL draft.

    Week 9 promises plenty of excitement, whether it's the battle of Hall of Fame quarterbacks in New England or a showdown in Dallas between two of the league's biggest surprises this season.

    With that in mind, we gathered together the National Lead and Division Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report and asked them to offer some insights into the upcoming week's slate.

    Here's what they had to say.

Upset of the Week

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Winner: New England Patriots (+4) over Denver Broncos (6 votes)

    In many respects, it's hard to think of any victory by the New England Patriots as an upset, especially at home. After all, the Patriots are the most successful NFL team of the past decade. Since taking over at quarterback, Tom Brady has guided the team to five Super Bowls, winning three.

    Still, it's a testament to just how dominant Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos have looked in recent weeks that those same Patriots are four-point underdogs in their own stadium Sunday.

    That's unheard of.

    Of course, Sunday also marks the 16th time that Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have met on the football field in the NFL. Brady holds a two-to-one edge in victories so far, but it was Manning and the Broncos who prevailed when last they met in the 2013 AFC Championship Game.

    Brady told Lee Schechter of ESPN he's well-aware the Patriots will have their hands full on Sunday:

    (Manning's) a great player and I think that you just know you are going to get one of the best offenses in the league. So what that means for me is that our offense has to be at our best. You can’t think you are going to go out and score 10 points and win the game.

    I don’t think any of our games have ever really come down to that. It’s really an important week for our team and all of us on our offense have to bring our best because we are playing against one of the best offenses in the league.

    It's sure to be a game filled with scoring, excitement and confusing hyperbole from Phil Simms. Our panel expects Simms to have plenty to babble incoherently about, with six voters predicting a Patriots victory that would shake up the balance of power in the AFC.

    Others receiving votes: Arizona Cardinals (+4) over Dallas Cowboys (4 votes), San Diego Chargers (+1) over Miami Dolphins (2 votes), New York Giants (+3) over Indianapolis Colts (1 vote), New York Jets (+10) over Kansas City Chiefs (1 vote), Houston Texans (+2) over Philadelphia Eagles (1 vote)

Blowout of the Week

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Winner: Seattle Seahawks over Oakland Raiders (8 votes)

    All is not well for the defending Super Bowl champions.

    Since blasting the Green Bay Packers in Week 1, the Seattle Seahawks have looked like a very ordinary football team. The team is 3-3 over that stretch, and as Greg Bishop of The MMQB reports, the Seattle offense has sputtered:

    This is Seattle’s 2014 offense, in a nutshell: They opened the season with an explosive game against the Packers, with receiver Percy Harvin running the jet sweep and Lynch as Beast-Mode-ly as ever. It was followed by several games in which the scheme seemed too intent on forcing the ball to Harvin; offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell appeared to favor a horizontal approach to a vertical one. Then came the shocking trade of Harvin to the Jets before Week 7, a deal that left Seattle with steady but unspectacular Doug Baldwin as a No. 1 receiver. They’re working with a disgruntled running back in Lynch, a rookie speedster in Richardson, and a bunch of guys that had even Seahawks fans flipping through their game programs to identify.

    However, in the eyes of our voters, the Seahawks' problems are about to be solved, at least temporarily.

    The Oakland Raiders have that effect on teams. They are the last winless team in the NFL this year, a dumpster fire of a squad that can't score on offense or stop anyone on defense.

    As ESPN's Bill Williamson points out, even the few bright spots for the Raiders this year have been fleeting:

    The Raiders looked like they were turning the corner in Week 6 when rookie quarterback Derek Carr threw four touchdown passes in a close 31-28 loss. It was by far their best offensive output of the season. However, the Raiders have regressed on offense the past two weeks.

    The only time the Raiders were in the red zone in a 23-13 loss at Cleveland on Sunday was during garbage time. The offense had no balance, as the Raiders threw the ball 56 times and ran it just 22 times.

    That is most assuredly not a good sign heading into Sunday's matchup at CenturyLink Field.

    Others receiving votes: Cincinnati Bengals over Jacksonville Jaguars (5 votes), San Francisco 49ers over St. Louis Rams (2 votes)

Biggest Mismatch

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Winner: Seattle Seahawks secondary vs. Oakland Raiders passing game (5 votes)

    Apparently there are a lot of uphill battles being fought in Week 9, as there were nine different nominees for the week's biggest mismatch.

    However, one drew far and away the most interest, and it takes us back to the Pacific Northwest.

    The issues in Seattle aren't confined to just the offense. The defense is still performing at a high level, but it isn't the dominant unit it was a season ago. In fact, after ranking first in the NFL last year against the pass, the Seahawks have dropped to 10th, allowing over 50 more yards per game through the air compared to last year.

    However, once again the Raiders are on the case, ready to cure what ails you.

    Granted, the Raiders' ranking of 22nd in passing offense isn't awful at first glance, but it's also a number that's buoyed by a lot of "garbage time" numbers.

    Add in Seattle's complex scheme, which often "baits" quarterbacks by disguising zone coverages, and you have the recipe for a long day for rookie quarterback Derek Carr.

    Others receiving votes: Pittsburgh Steelers passing game vs. Baltimore Ravens secondary (2 votes), Dez Bryant vs. Arizona Cardinals secondary (2 votes), Jimmy Graham vs. Carolina Panthers' safeties (1 vote), New Orleans Saints vs. playing on Thursday (1 vote), San Francisco 49ers OL/DL vs. St. Louis Rams (1 vote), J.J. Watt vs. Philadelphia Eagles' interior linemen (1 vote), Colin Kaepernick vs. Rams linebackers (1 vote), Cincinnati Bengals secondary vs. Blake Bortles (1 vote)

Sleeper QB Performance

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Winner: Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (4 votes)

    Alex Smith of the Kansas City Chiefs has long held the dreaded term of "game manager," accused by critics of dinking and dunking his way down the field with short passes too often.

    Smith took that to a whole new level in last week's win over the St. Louis Rams. As ESPN's Adam Teicher reports, Smith only threw one pass during the entire game that traveled more than 10 yards downfield. It was the first time since 2012 that a starting quarterback did that and still won the game.

    There's been speculation that Smith's shoulder sprain was partly to blame, but the 30-year-old told Teicher that he was simply taking what the Rams gave him:

    I felt like (the Rams have) an aggressive defense at times and with some of that stuff that we had called, it dictated that it went to the backs and tight ends. I felt like they had two rookie corners that they weren’t going to come up and press and they weren’t going to play aggressive and they were going to help. I felt like they helped the young kid, (cornerback Marcus Roberson), all day today with the safeties over the top. That was hard.

    It kind of felt like that because (cornerback Janoris) Jenkins didn’t play and they had the young kid in that they were going to help him, they were going to play off and just the way that ended up happening, it ended up dictating some of the backs and tight ends.

    Whether it was game plan or gimpiness, Smith got the job done, and our voters expect that to continue in Week 9 against a New York Jets secondary that's been making quarterbacks look good all season long.

    Others receiving votes: Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (3 votes), Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns (3 votes), Michael Vick, New York Jets (2 votes), Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (1 vote), Ryan Fitzpatrick, Houston Texans (1 vote), Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (1 vote)

More Passing Yards: Tom Brady or Peyton Manning

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Winner: Peyton Manning (12 votes)

    Given their stellar careers and longstanding rivalry, it comes as no surprise that there's a great deal of respect between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, whether it's Brady quipping to ESPN's Lee Schechter:

    He’s always been someone I really look up to and study and admire. I mean, he is older than me. He has more playing experience than me. So maybe when I’m his age, I’ll be playing as well as that.

    Peyton has been a phenomenal player, so consistent, so durable over a long period of time. We’ve had a great rivalry in the AFC and this year is no different. It’s a great matchup.

    Or the usually tight-lipped Bill Belichick heaping praise on Manning while speaking with Schechter:

    Not to take anything away from the Montanas, Marinos and Elways or whoever is up there with those guys, but [Manning] is tough. He's good at everything. He's good at everything, I see no weaknesses in his game.

    Yeah, yeah, yeah, we get it. Manning's good.

    AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz put his chips on the Golden Boy in this clash of the titans:

    It seems like everyone has conveniently forgotten that the Patriots have the No. 1-ranked pass defense in the NFL. Manning checked to the run time after time when these two teams met in the regular season last year, and it resulted in Knowshon Moreno going off for 224 rushing yards. The Patriots are once again one of the league's worst run defenses, so look for Manning to take advantage of the Patriots' biggest weakness—which will ultimately result in fewer passing yards for the league's most prolific passer.

    Frenz may be among a number of our experts who believe that the Patriots will win the war on Sunday afternoon, but so far, as the statistical battle through the air is concerned, the vote wasn't close.

    Omaha!

Sleeper RB Performance

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    Winner: Charles Sims, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4 votes)

    It's been a very unsettled year at the running back position across the NFL, as evidenced by the fact that eight ball-carriers received at least one vote for this week's breakout performance.

    In many respects, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been a microcosm of that madness. Doug Martin has been mostly awful, averaging less than three yards a carry. Bobby Rainey has been better, but the third-year pro has also lost four fumbles.

    That's opened the door for rookie Charles Sims to be a big part of the ground game in Tampa—if he can get on the field, that is.

    The rookie from West Virginia, who began the year on short-term injured reserve after breaking his ankle in August, is back at practice, and Ross Jones of Fox Sports reports that the team already has plans for the youngster:

    'There's a role for him,' a Buccaneers team source told FOXSports.com. 'While he might not get No. 1 carries right away, he's definitely a third-down back and could possibly be a factor in the screen game. He's a player that has that game-breaking ability.'

    Heading into a matchup with a Cleveland Browns defense that enters Week 9 ranked 30th in the NFL against the run, that's good enough for us.

    Besides, if it was obvious Sims wouldn't be a "sleeper," now would he?

    Others receiving votes: Ahmad Bradshaw, Indianapolis Colts (3 votes), DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers (2 votes), Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals (2 votes), Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote), Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 vote), Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings (1 vote), Denard Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (1 vote)

More Total Yards: Andre Ellington or DeMarco Murray

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Winner: DeMarco Murray (11 votes)

    UPDATE: Sunday, November 2 at 8:59 a.m.

    Tony Romo is expected to sit for Sunday's game against the Cardinals. 

    The rest of the NFL may be having issues at the running back spot, but part of the reason the Arizona Cardinals and Dallas Cowboys enter their Week 9 matchup a combined 12-3 is that they've had no such problems.

    Both Andre Ellington and DeMarco Murray rank among the top-12 backs in the league in terms of both rushing yards and total yards. Murray has already set a record with eight straight 100-yard games to begin the season, and he's on a pace that would threaten Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record.

    The Cowboys have been leaning heavily in Murray this season, and Rainer Sabin of The Dallas Morning News expects that to continue regardless of whether Tony Romo's balky back will allow him to play Sunday.

    "The injury the quarterback suffered," Sabin wrote, "allowed for a symbolic transfer of power between Romo and Murray that has really played out on a larger scale over the first eight weeks."

    It would appear our voters concur, with over two-thirds forecasting Murray to outgain Ellington despite a much less favorable matchup with the Cardinals' third-ranked run defense.

Sleeper WR Performance

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Winner: Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys (4 votes)

    If Tony Romo, DeMarco Murray and Dez Bryant are the new Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith and Michael Irvin, then Dallas Cowboys wideout Terrance Williams is this incarnation's Alvin Harper.

    As Rainer Sabin of The Dallas Morning News reported a few weeks ago, that's not necessarily a bad thing:

    Williams is the Alvin Harper to Dez Bryant’s Michael Irvin. Williams has produced at least 70 receiving yards in his each of his last three games while making some head-turning plays. The latest one came on third-and-20 in the fourth quarter of the Cowboys’ 30-23 victory over Seattle. Williams’ acrobatic 23-yard catch, with a Baryshnikov-like toe drag near the right sideline, helped preserve a drive that produced the game-winning touchdown. When called upon lately, Williams has made some major contributions.

    Williams hasn't slowed down since. Simply put, there's a lot to be said for finding one's self in single coverage all day.

    And that's exactly where Williams will be in Week 9 against an Arizona Cardinals squad that's shorthanded at cornerback.

    Others receiving votes: Odell Beckham, New York Giants (3 votes), Jermaine Kearse, Seattle Seahawks (2 votes), Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks (2 votes), Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote), Miles Austin, Cleveland Browns (1 vote), Andrew Hawkins, Cleveland Browns (1 vote), Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins (1 vote)

Over/Under: 125 Receiving Yards for Antonio Brown

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Winner: Over (10 votes)

    With both Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions and A.J. Green of the Cincinnati Bengals battling injuries in 2014, the door has been opened for some new blood to lay claim to the title of the NFL's best wide receiver.

    Antonio Brown of the Pittsburgh Steelers has availed himself of that opportunity.

    Brown's 852 receiving yards through eight weeks trails only T.Y. Hilton of the Indianapolis Colts. His 60 catches lead the league.

    After gashing the Indianapolis Colts for 10 catches, 133 yards and two scores in last week's win over Indy, head coach Mike Tomlin gushed about the fifth-year veteran while talking to Scott Brown of ESPN:

    Antonio is playing at that type of level at wide receiver, a J.J. Watt-type of level. He's one of the best in the world at what he does and he's mentally and physically on top of his game. He's a known issue [for opponents] but he still performs. We can say similar things about guys like J.J. Watt. We knew what he was capable [of] when we were getting ready to play him but it still doesn't stop the storm from coming.

    This week the Steelers play their archrivals from Baltimore in a key AFC North showdown, and with the Ravens without top cover corner Jimmy Smith, our writers look for Brown to keep on showing the Steelers what he can do for them.

Sleeper TE Performance

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    USA TODAY Sports

    Winner: Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (5 votes)

    If you want to get a feel for individual performances across the National Football League, one need look no farther than fantasy football. The NFL is all about the final score, but fantasy football is all about each player's stat line.

    In that regard, Brad Evans of Yahoo Sports sees a big week in store for Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce:

    Kelce is a swinging pendulum personified. Thanks to Andy Reid's insistence on limiting him to 50-60 percent of team snaps, the tight end has been wildly inconsistent. On fire from Weeks 3-5, he racked the fifth-best line at the position, catching 13 passes for 144 yards and three touchdowns. Since then, however, he's grabbed just eight balls for 78 yards and no scores. But this week presents a unique opportunity. The one-win Jets are lousy in all facets of the game, particularly containing plus-sized targets. Linebackers DeMario Davis and David Harris have allowed 40 receptions on 51 targets (78.4 catch percentage). And no defense has surrendered more TDs (9) to the position over the past six weeks. Alex Smith is sure to play it conservative, but of his roughly 25-30 pass attempts, 7-8 will be thrown No. 87's way. This is the week Special K once again cracks the TE top-10.

    Evans will get no argument from this panel, although given how much we've spotlighted the Jets and Raiders in this piece, I'm starting to feel guilty.

    After all, it's dirty pool to pick on the weak kids on the playground.

    Others receiving votes: Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins (4 votes), Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (2 votes), Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes), Jace Amaro, New York Jets (1 vote), Jim Dray, Cleveland Browns (1 vote)

Best Defensive Performance

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    Eric Gay/Associated Press

    Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (10 points)

    You do not want to make J.J. Watt angry.

    Rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger of the Tennessee Titans found that out the hard way in Week 8. Mettenberger apparently drew Watt's ire by posting selfies of himself from the locker room leading up to the game.

    Watt then mocked the activity during the game, pantomiming a selfie after sacking Mettenberger. As the Houston Chronicle reports, Watt also had some choice words for Mettenberger after the game:

    It (sack and fake selfie) was kind of a reminder that this is the NFL, not high school. This is the National Football League. Welcome to the show. I take this game seriously. If I were a rookie being named a starter for the first time, I’d be a little more focused. But we won the game. That’s all that matters.

    Now get off his lawn.

    Nine in a row. Watt's going to be paying property taxes on this spot by December.

    Others receiving votes: Bruce Irvin, DE/OLB, Seattle Seahawks (2 votes), DeMarcus Ware, DE, Denver Broncos (1 vote), Junior Galette, OLB, New Orleans Saints (1 vote), Larry Foote, ILB, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote)

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