Sullivan | As LCFC grows, Humana deal looms

Bob Valvano is a believer. The discerning talk-show host has seen the response to Louisville City FC, and the professionalism of its people, and he imagines Louisville going big-league in soccer.

"If you look at the MLS map, there's a hole right here," said Valvano, a reformed goalkeeper who provides internet play-by-play for the new USL team. "The MLS is looking to fill holes. This would be a perfect place."

Here's hoping he's right, but there's trouble in river city. I see headlines about Humana being sold, and imagine the big-league dream dying. I see Humana's name on the front of Louisville City's jerseys and imagine that sponsorship space for rent.

If there's a market for major-league sports in Louisville, then it had better be resilient. Humana placed 58th in the most recent Fortune 500 rankings of America's largest companies – No. 1 in Kentucky – and its sale could have serious consequences for professional perspiration as well as for local employment and real estate.

It's hard to replace that much discretionary income in a city of this size. It's hard to handle that big a blow to the tax base. Consequently, it's hard to see how sports leagues contemplating expansion could look at the 'Ville as vibrant and growing if a Humana sale or merger led to dramatic downsizing of a 57,000-person labor force.

"Would be a devastating blow," said Jonathan Blue, a local venture capitalist who specializes in sports. "... Despite the fact that it is difficult enough to secure a pro team anywhere, a Humana sale and exit from the market would reduce the base of corporate sponsors and therefore decrease the chances of landing a big-league team."

Happily, Wayne Estopinal is not easily discouraged. While walking around Louisville Slugger Field on Saturday night during his team's 6-2 victory over Oklahoma City, Louisville City's principal owner said three of his partners asked him how soon the team would start building a stadium of its own. Estopinal can see the bigger picture and remains undaunted.

"I started at Humana," he said. "I started as a cub architect at Humana. It would be a huge blow to this community (if the company is sold). But there are a lot of other corporations in our community. Quite truthfully, the experience in Orlando, seeing what happened there, it really wasn't a corporation that got behind Orlando City. It was truly a group of people who saw the potential for soccer.

"If Humana does leave this city, I don't think it's a death blow to MLS soccer in this community. The price point is achievable. Having Humana here would certainly help. (But) if they do leave, I don't think it ends the discussion at all."

Estopinal's optimism was justified by an announced crowd of 6,646 on the same night Churchill Downs closed its spring meet, and that crowd was as engaged, as enthusiastic and as entertaining as any first-year franchise has the right to expect.

Late in the second half, with the home team leading by three goals, hundreds of the hard-core fans known as the Louisville Coopers were still standing, still chanting and still responding to drumbeat cues as if the outcome were still in doubt.

"You are allowed to sit," Coopers spokesman Jason Ence explained, "but you will be chastised."

If you like atmosphere, this was a terrific place to be. Louisville City raised its average home attendance to 6,002 Saturday night, second-best in the 24-team United Soccer League, and far in excess of the 3,500 average that can trigger discussions of a stand-alone stadium with the city. With Major League Soccer committed to an aggressive expansion strategy, Louisville City's startup success is a legitimate basis for a serious look.

"We know next year will be better," Estopinal said. "We will have had some time to figure this out and we can engage the community in the discussion and show them what this is. This time last year, we were selling an abstract. ... They're not just imagining this now. It's no longer an abstract. It's real."

Humana's future is still speculative. And worrisome.

Tim Sullivan can be reached at (502) 582-4650,tsullivan@courier-journal.com or at @TimSullivan714.