Big four miners flood Fortescue

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Yes, it’s all iron ore go at the big miners. Anglo-American has joined the party. From Bloomie:

Anglo raised its full-year iron-ore production forecast to a range of 45 million tons to 46 million tons from 44 million tons to 46 million tons, after third-quarter output jumped 37 percent from a year earlier, the London-based company said in a statement today. It plans to start shipping iron ore from the $8.8 billion Minas Rio project by the end of this year.

…“Work on the Minas Rio project continues, with significant progress made to deliver first ore on ship,” Anglo said. “Commissioning and testing activities are ongoing, ore stockpiles are being built at the Port of Acu and first ore loading has begun.”

Anglo’s Kumba Iron Ore Ltd. (KIO) implemented a turnaround plan after falling grades at its Sishen mine in South Africa, the continent’s largest for the steelmaking ingredient, it said.

Kumba output was up 37% on last year but its Minas Rio that’s the game changer with 14mtpa next year and double after that if they like.

Meanwhile, it’s pedal the metal at BHP. From The Australian:

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“We are behaving as a rationale economic enterprise. We have the opportunity to substantially increase our iron ore production through productivity and getting more out of the existing infrastructure.

“In doing that we are winning huge benefits for shareholders.”

BHP is expanding 50 mtpa in the next two years.

It’s pedal to the metal at Rio Tinto with CEO Sam Walsh turned into an emperor. From Reuters:

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Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) gave its chief executive an open-ended job contract on Thursday, in a move seen likely to strengthen the mining group’s defences just weeks after it disclosed a rebuffed takeover approach from rival Glencore Plc (GLEN.L).

The 64-year-old CEO’s strategy at the helm has been a conservative one, focused on internal growth projects in profitable businesses such as iron ore and copper, with an eye on greater ­dividends, rather than ambitious acquisitions.

Rio’s extension of Walsh’s contract ends speculation over his replacement and, analysts said, also makes a Glencore bid approach a tougher proposition. Walsh, an Australian who joined Rio after 20 years in the auto industry, is perceived by the market as unwilling to sell out.

“Certainly Sam Walsh does present a formidable barrier to a potential takeover,” Investec analyst Hunter Hillcoat said.

RIO is expanding 90mtpa in the next three years.

It’s pedal to the metal at Vale. From the WSJ:

Brazilian mining major Vale SA, the world’s biggest iron-ore producer, said Thursday its output of the key steelmaking ingredient rose in the third quarter and is on track to set a record for the year despite plunging prices.

Vale’s production of iron ore rose 3.1% from the third quarter of 2013 to 85.73 million metric tons, thanks to successful ramp-ups of its operations at the Amazonian mining complex of Carajas and elsewhere. Through the first nine months of 2014, the company’s iron-ore output was up 8.1% at 236.24 million tons, the highest ever.

…Vale’s shipments of iron ore declined by 3.6 million tons in the third quarter because of protests at its cargo railroad out of Carajas in September. As a result, the company’s global stocks of the raw material rose by 9.3 million tons in the third quarter.

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Vale is expanding some 90mt in the next three years.

And finally, it’s big trouble at little Fortescue. From The Australian:

Fortescue, which yesterday wrapped up an investor tour across its Pilbara iron ore operations, told investors that it expected to see its net debt increase during the current financial year.

…The delivery of the prepaid tonnes and the tax payments will hit cash flows that are already under pressure from a falling iron ore price that has squeezed margins at the miner.

…One fund manager, who did not want to be named, told The Australian there was “a bit of smoke and mirrors” around Fortescue’s debt position, given the iron ore prepayments and the timing of the tax payment.

Oh dear!

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.