Fact or Fiction on All of MLB's Hottest Free-Agency, Trade Rumors

With the MLB world focused squarely on an unexpected World Series matchup between the Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants, rumors regarding free agency and potential trade targets can get overlooked.

It's just the nature of the machine.

And while the last week has brought us some of the usual fare, there is a name that is new to the rumors conversation. There is also an unexpected team that could be making a high-powered move to improve its 25-man roster.

So let's play a game of fact or fiction with some of the recent rumors around MLB, starting with an old one that suddenly has new legs.

From all accounts, B.J. Upton may have played his last game as a member of the Atlanta Braves. It’s been a long time coming.

Prior to the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, there was a lot of discourse on a possible swap between the Chicago Cubs and the Braves involving Upton and right-hander Edwin Jackson.

As David O’Brien from The Atlanta Journal-Constitution noted in late August, “the principles of the deal that was discussed before the July 31 trade deadline would’ve involved the Braves and Cubs swapping terrible contracts and hoping a change of scenery would help the players involved.”

At the time, O’Brien added that he thought “it’s just about a fait accompli that” Upton is no longer a member of the Braves by the time spring training kicks off. Then things went dark.

Well, on Tuesday, O’Brien once again mentioned the Jackson-for-Upton trade, saying that it “could resurface.” Now, if you think O’Brien is alone in his belief, you’re mistaken, as Scott Miller from Bleacher Report shared that he also thinks there is legitimacy to the idea.

So, will the Braves and Cubs get this thing done?

Verdict: Fact.

There are multiple levels to any deal involving these two players, including salary compensation for the Cubs, as Upton is owed more money than Jackson is. That, or another player needs to be included, but perhaps a change of scenery would be good for each of them.

And who knows, perhaps Jackson can turn into a top-flight reliever and Upton can end up being the best fourth outfielder in MLB. Either way, the money is going to be spent. Why not roll the dice on this one?

Would the Boston Red Sox consider trading Yoenis Cespedes?

Apparently, they already are, according to Nick Cafardo from The Boston Globe:

Word is spreading that the Red Sox could make Cespedes available. He will earn $10.2 million in the final year of his deal. Cespedes said late in the season that he wasn’t sure whether he’d engage in long-term talks with the Red Sox. Couple that with his desire not to play right field or work on his defense, and that could make him a trade candidate as the Red Sox try to pare their outfield depth and possibly make room for Mookie Betts or add a lefthanded hitter.

At first blush, such a move seems shortsighted. After all, wasn’t Cespedes supposed to be a key cog in the machine that got the Red Sox back to the postseason?

Digging a bit deeper, however, this could make sense. After all, if the Red Sox are going to sign a couple of free agents this offseason, it stands to reason that general manager Ben Cherington does not want to have to fill another hole with a high-priced acquisition next winter.

Yet that is what he would have to do if Cespedes walks after the 2015 season. It may be best to be proactive with a situation that could impede the organization’s progress moving forward.

And as Dayn Perry from CBS Sports noted after Cafardo’s piece went live, “the Red Sox may be thinking that his perceived value outstrips his actual value—hence their reported willingness to move Cespedes.”

One final thing. Cespedes recently signed on with Roc Nation to be his representation. While the impact that will have is entirely unknown, it's safe to assume that Cespedes may be pricing himself out of the Red Sox's future.

Moving the power-hitter would be a gutsy move, but will the Red Sox pull it off?

Verdict: Fact.

Cherington is as shrewd as they come. Leave it to him to re-sign Jon Lester this offseason as a free agent and trade Cespedes for another arm and an outfielder. In other words, he could double down on his biggest move in advance of the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

The Minnesota Twins are apparently in on Yasmany Tomas, according to a tweet last week from 1500 ESPN Twin Cities’ Darren Wolfson.

Wolfson then noted five days later that the talks between the two sides were “brief ones” before adding that the Twins had not scheduled a private workout with the Cuban slugger.

But considering the state of the Twins, general manager Terry Ryan may have to step up on this one.

Consider: The Twins ranked 22nd in MLB in combined WAR from the collection of outfielders then-manager Ron Gardenhire trotted out on a daily basis, per FanGraphs. And that includes the contributions of Danny Santana (.319/.353/.472, 7 HR, 40 RBI, 70 R), who is a shortstop by trade.

Adding a guy like Tomas, whom Kiley McDaniel from FanGraphs pegged with an upside of 25-30 home runs and a .275/.350/.480 slash line, would go a long way toward solidifying the group. It wouldn’t do anything about Santana playing out of position, mind you, but that is a situation the club will have to live with for the time being.

Verdict: Too early to tell.

While it sounds nice, the Twins will have to come hard at Tomas, starting with a show of legitimate interest in the form of a private workout.

If that happens, Ryan may take his cue from Rick Hahn and the Chicago White Sox and put the best bid on the table. And if he does that, there is no reason why the Twins wouldn’t be the club that Tomas decides to go with.

What would an article about rumors be without an obligatory spot on Baltimore Orioles slugger Nelson Cruz?

The question at hand is whether or not Cruz will be with the club next season. We know that he will be extended a qualifying offer, per CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman. We also know that Cruz is happy where he is, courtesy of MLB.com’s Brittany Ghiroli.

Because of the mutual admiration, there are those who think that Cruz will remain with the Orioles.

Bleacher Report’s Jason Catania, for example, recently posited that “because Cruz would like to come back,” there’s every reason to believe “it's possible the two sides will agree on some sort of deal to make both sides happy—less per-year salary for the Orioles but more years for Cruz.”

To be sure, it is a sound thought process.

That said, Peter Schmuck from The Baltimore Sun writes that the Orioles need to come at Cruz with a solid offer off the bat:

Cruz isn't going to come cheap. He has been there and done that for the Orioles, leading the major leagues in home runs on a one-year, $8 million contract that was the baseball equivalent of buying him at a swap meet.

...

If it comes down to whether Cruz is willing to stay for less, that could be problematic, since he has to feel the Orioles already got plenty of added value on the way to their first American League East title since 1997.

Now, Schmuck added that “the Orioles prefer to offer him a two-year deal with an option worth about $30 million guaranteed.” That may not be enough.

Verdict: Fiction.

Cruz will decline the qualifying offer and hit the open market. And it is then that another club, likely the Texas Rangers, will offer him three years straight up for more than $30 million guaranteed.

Seeing as how this is likely Cruz’s last big payday, coupled with the fact that he took a self-inflicted pay cut in 2014, he will jump at the money.

Unless otherwise noted, all traditional, team and historical statistics are courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Transaction, injury and game information are courtesy of MLB.com.

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