Predicting the 2014 All-Overpaid MLB Free-Agent Team

As the San Francisco Giants continue their charge toward the strangest dynasty in MLB history, we inch closer to the beginning of the offseason.

While teams prepare their offseason budgets, the 2015 class of free agents are salivating for their chance to capitalize on their big 2014 seasons, ready to jump on the biggest offer while the oven is hot. This may be their first chance at big money or, for others, their last, and as teams sign billion-dollar TV deals, the owners have more money than ever to spend on the wrong players. 

This slideshow isn't going to be about the best players on the market—my colleague, Matthew Smith, delved into the top 15 guys here—but rather the players who will get the Josh Hamilton-type contract that teams will regret sooner rather than later. 

I love Russell Martin. He's Yadier Molina 2.0 in terms of what he brings to the Pittsburgh Pirates and his underrated overall value to a baseball team. However, I wouldn't sign him to a long-term deal, and that's what he's going to get.

Martin's relationship with the pitching staff, his role in the clubhouse and his general offensive production are hard to capture by any single statistic. This year, he even took his offensive production to a new level with a career-high .402 on-base percentage, not to mention his highest batting average (.290) and slugging percentage (.430) since 2007.

According to FanGraphs, he was the third-most valuable catcher in terms of WAR (5.3) this season, his highest mark since 2007. Let's also not forget the local Pirates media proclaiming Martin as the team's MVP and manager Clint Hurdle saying he's just as valuable as reigning MVP Andrew McCutchen. 

All of that paints quite a rosy picture, right? Well, it does for Martin's camp. For the owners and other potential interested teams...they should start worrying about the future. 

Martin will be playing next season as a 32-year-old. For a catcher who has already played 1,203 games, regular season plus postseason, that's a lot of mileage on those knees. Martin's BABIP this season was .56 higher than his career average, so we can expect a steep drop-off in his batting average next season and moving forward. 

Earlier this season, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman hinted at two contract comparisons for Martin. The Arizona Diamondbacks signed Miguel Montero to a five-year, $60 million deal, while Brian McCann got $85 million over five years last season with the New York Yankees. Both of those guys were younger than Martin when they signed, but with Heyman reporting the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs may have interest, we could have a bidding war, with Martin the sole beneficiary.

On a short-term deal, Martin would be a great deal for around $12 million-$15 million annually. However, if he gets anywhere near the years or money that McCann got, he'll certainly qualify for the all-overpaid team of 2014.   

Projected Contract: Five years, $75 million

What I'd Give: Three years, $45 million

Michael Cuddyer's overall stat line looks great. Over his last 179 games, he has 106 runs, 30 home runs and 115 RBI. He's hit .331 with a .543 slugging percentage, not to mention earning the 2013 batting title. He's a former first-round pick—ninth overall, all the way back in 1997—who's averaged 19 home runs a season over the past six years.

In a game suddenly deprived of power, those 19 homers have become even more valuable. 

However, the story isn't all so peachy:

1. Over the past four seasons, he's missed an average of 57 games a season. 
2. Before joining the Colorado Rockies for the 2013 season, he never hit higher than .284.
3. His career batting average on the road is .261, 36 points lower than his career average at home. 

Cuddyer's contract demands will likely be similar to the two-year, $16 million contract Marlon Byrd signed with the Philadelphia Phillies last season. If a team can sign him to be a part-time role player on a one-year deal, he'd be a great get, but otherwise, as he's an injury-riddled 35-year-old, a team would be better off spending elsewhere. The New York Mets have interest, per Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, and MLB Trade Rumors predicts he'll ink a $22 million deal over two years.

Projected Contract: Two years, $22 million

What I'd Give: One year, $8 million

The batch of free-agent second basemen is very weak this offseason, so if Ben Zobrist hits the market, teams will be lining up to sign him. The Tampa Bay Rays hold a $7.5 milion team option, and while it is likely they re-sign him, you never know with the cost-conscious Rays.

Since 2011, Zobrist's WAR has dropped from 6.3 to 5.7. In 2011 and 2012, he hit 40 homers. Over the past two seasons, he has just 22, with his slugging percentage dropping from .470 to a pedestrian .398.

The defensive versatility is still there, as he played all over the diamond last year: 79 games at second base, 38 games in left field, 31 games at shortstop, 19 games in right field and even seven games in center field. However, his defensive metrics declined last year as well, according to FanGraphs' defensive adjustment stat.

If the option is declined, a 33-year-old Zobrist could help a contender. However, with so few good options at second this offseason, Zobrist's price could far outweigh his actual value over the long term.

Projected Contract: Three years, $39 million

What I'd Give: Two years, $22 million

Just in case the Rays exercise Zobrist's option and he doesn't become a free agent, I didn't want to shortchange you. 

Despite having two All-Star appearances on his resume, Asdrubal Cabrera has long been a name I thought was overrated. Back in 2009, he hit .308 over 131 games. He hasn't topped .276 since, hitting a combined .242 with the Cleveland Indians and Washington Nationals this season. 

In 2011, he hit 25 home runs with the Indians in 151 games. In 425 games since, he's hit 44 home runs, with just 14 this season, along with a .387 slugging percentage, his lowest since 2009. 

Despite all of his web gems—and trust me, he's made some jaw-dropping plays—according to FanGraphs, Cabrera has been a below-average defensive player in seven out of his eight full seasons in the big leagues. 

Cabrera wants to stay with the Nationals, per Dan Kolko of MASN Sports, but considering the lack of overall talent up the middle this offseason, he should get plenty of offers sent his way, and that will only drive the price up. MLB Trade Rumors predicts he's going to get a three-year, $27 million deal. I find that hard to believe, but with at least four teams interested (New York Yankees, New York Mets, Oakland A's, Washington Nationals), anything is possible.

Projected Contract: Three years, $22 million

What I'd Give: Two years, $14 million

Every game the Giants win, the cash register in Panda's head keeps adding zeroes.

Pablo Sandoval is making a name for himself again this October, hitting .346 this postseason with countless defensive gems. Through Game 2 of the World Series, he's played in 34 playoff games and his career postseason average is .333 with a .556 slugging percentage, so he's proven himself as a big-game performer. 

In the regular season, he's been a model of consistency. He's a two-time All-Star, a career .294 hitter, has averaged 17 home runs over six seasons and finished tied for the sixth-best defensive rating among third basemen this season, according to FanGraphs. However, he still finished outside the top 10 in WAR among third basemen this season. His weight remains a slight concern, but more importantly, his OPS has declined four straight seasons, from .909 in 2011 to .739 last season.

The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo had some interesting notes on what Sandoval could command and where he may end up, writing, "Most major league executives we’ve talked to believe Sandoval will wind up with a five-year deal worth about $100 million. That could be with the Red Sox, Yankees, or Dodgers."

Sandoval is a great role player on a great team. Playing big when the games are on the line for the potential World Series champions is no small feat, especially considering the teams Cafardo mentions, which determine success by postseason wins. However, to give Panda anything more than $15 million a year would be a large overpay, especially over the long term. 

Projected Contract: Five years, $90 million

What I'd Give: Four years, $60 million

A year ago, Hanley Ramirez, a top-five player when healthy, would have had teams lining up to give him $100 million.

Today? Totally different story.

In 86 games last season, Ramirez was a 5.0 WAR player with 20 homers, a .345 batting average and an astounding 1.040 OPS. He has six seasons with 20 or more homers, five seasons with a batting average higher than .300 and seven seasons with 20 or more steals.

However, the most important number, which landed him on this list, is games played.

Over the past four seasons, Ramirez has missed an average of 47 games. His injuries: thumb, hamstring, back and ribs last year; thumb, calf, shoulder and oblique this year.

This is a player who has already asked for more than $100 million in a long-term deal—a hefty sum to commit to a guy who can't stay on the field. He put up the amazing stat line mentioned above in 2013, but it's starting to look like the outlier. In 2011, 2012 and 2014, Ramirez never hit higher than .283, stole more than 21 bases or posted a slugging percentage higher than .450.

In addition, his defense has been below average in four of the past five seasons, so he may need to consider moving to third base if he wants the money he is looking for.

He turns 31 in December, and the Los Angeles Dodgers could extend a qualifying offer, which means that if he were to decline and sign with a new club, there would be a first- or second-round pick attached, raising his price even more.

Projected Contract: Four years, $76 million (as shortstop)

What I'd Give: Three years, $48 million (as third baseman)

After winning the award for best contract of the 2013 offseason, Nelson Cruz is a leading candidate to follow that up with the award for the worst contract of the 2014 offseason. 

Yes, Cruz has legitimate power. He led the league in home runs this season with 40 blasts. 

Yes, he's seventh among all players with 175 homers since 2009, his first full season in the MLB.

Yes, Cruz has proved himself as a postseason stud, passing some Babe Ruth fella with his 16th playoff homer. 

Despite getting the Giants' "Yes, Yes, Yes" stamp of approval, there are other things to worry about. He was suspended 50 games for performance-enhancing drug use just last season. He's also played more than 130 games only twice in six full years in the bigs. My biggest concern, however, is that he's played his entire career in hitters' parks, and his stats are inflated. 

Here are his splits:

That .467 slugging percentage would have finished tied for 27th in the league this season. In addition, after hitting 28 home runs before the All-Star break, Cruz hit just 12 in the second half and saw a 38-point dip in his batting average.

Coming off an $8 million deal, Cruz will be looking to cash in this offseason. According to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, the Baltimore Orioles are expected to extend Cruz a qualifying offer, but he will likely decline as, he's likely to receive a "big multi-year deal."

Cruz deserves a multiyear deal, and he wants to stay with Baltimore, per Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports. But to sign a 34-year-old who has dealt with a myriad of injuries and who is a confirmed PED user in the past, with a first-round pick added to the price of a hefty contract? No, thank you. 

Projected Contract: Four years, $90 million plus first-round pick

What I'd Give: Two years, $45 million

Trust. 

Not only was Melky Cabrera suspended 50 games for PEDs in 2012, but he reportedly created a website featuring a fake product to try and cover up his PED use. Does that sound like someone you want in your clubhouse? 

Yeah, me neither. 

Don't get me wrong, Cabrera has a couple of All-Star-caliber seasons under his belt. And from 2011 through 2014, his slash line is .309/.351/.458. However, in his first six seasons, his slash line was .267/.328/.379.

Cabrera wants to stay with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Toronto Star's Brendan Kennedy polled agents and here is a brief bit of their analysis: 

The consensus among the agents polled by the Star is that Cabrera will land a contract somewhere in the neighbourhood of three years and between $36 million and $45 million, or roughly $12 to $15 million per season. One agent said it’s possible Cabrera could get four years at $15 million a season — “kind of like (Curtis) Granderson,” who signed a four-year, $60 million deal with the New York Mets last off-season — but most teams will be reluctant to go four years, he said. Another agent thought he’d get something more in line with the three-year, $39 million deal Shane Victorino signed with Boston before the 2013 season.

All the agents said Cabrera’s past PED use and last year’s tumour will scare off some teams.

MLB Trade Rumors took it one step further and predicted Cabrera would get a five-year, $66.25 million deal due to his "relatively young age" and his ability to hit for extra bases. 

Just two years removed from him creating a fake website to try and hide his use of PEDs, giving Cabrera millions of dollars will be the biggest mistake of the offseason. 

Projected Contract: Four years, $48 million

What I'd Give: Zero years, $0

Ever since he was a first-round pick in 2005, Colby Rasmus' potential has had general managers salivating over what could be. 

Rasmus has played six seasons in the MLB, and in each of those seasons, he's hit 11 or more home runs, eclipsing the 20-homer plateau three times. In 2010 and 2013, he hit .276 with a .498 and .501 slugging percentage, respectively, showing off that potential that interested teams hope will become the consistent production heading into his age-28 season. 

Last season, Rasmus' ISO (power) was .223, which was better than the likes of two-time reigning MVP Miguel Cabrera, among others. His line-drive rate has increased in three straight seasons, showing the growth and potential (sound familiar) he's shown is legitimate.

While those are strong positives in his favor, his injury-riddled past and negative defensive metrics outweigh his potential cost on the free-agent market. Over the past two seasons, Rasmus has averaged 111 games played. I've heard comparisons to B.J. Upton, and that sends chills down my spine, as he's been atrocious after signing a five-year, $75 million deal with the Atlanta Braves based on his potential. 

In addition, Rasmus' splits are great cause for concern. Rasmus is clearly not an everyday player, with a career slash line of .213/.287/.361 versus left-handed pitching.  

When the St. Louis Cardinals and their collective genius get rid of you, that can't be a very good sign. When you consider they dealt him for Edwin Jackson, it puts things into perspective. He's had only one season with a WAR above 1.0 over the past four, and a team giving him a multiyear contract would be an overpay. 

Projected Contract: Two years, $24 million

What I'd Give: One year, $10 million (in platoon role)

Victor Martinez just had the best season of his career as a 35-year-old, with a career-high 32 home runs, .409 OBP, .565 slugging percentage, 188 hits and 70 walks compared to only 42 strikeouts. His BABIP was right in line with his career averages, and his line-drive percentage actually dropped off from his 2011 mark of 24.2. 

Buster Olney of ESPN reports (subscription required) that he also carries a reputation for being a great teammate and an excellent mentor, helping J.D. Martinez in his breakout campaign. Olney lists the teams that will show interest in the designated hitter, such as the Chicago White Sox, Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros, Cleveland Indians, Minnesota Twins and Detroit Tigers, who will do "whatever it takes" to bring him back.

Similar to Russell Martin, whom I raved about earlier, I think Victor Martinez will be a great sign...for the short term. I can see V-Mart getting a three-year deal, and for a full-time DH who hit 26 home runs combined in 2011 and 2013 (he missed 2012 due to a knee injury), paying $20 million a year is too much for me. 

Projected Contract: Three years, $54 million

What I'd Give: Two years, $36 million

Postseason ERA: 5.74
Postseason WHIP: 1.54

James Shields got the nickname "Big Game James" in high school, and I think it's time we find him a new one. 

Since joining the Rays rotation in 2007, nobody has thrown more regular-season innings innings than Shields has. Over that same time period, Shields' WAR ranks 12th among all pitchers, and he has eight straight seasons of 11 or more wins. 

Those are great stats, but at what point do these innings start to take a toll on his arm? Justin Verlander led the MLB in innings pitched in 2009, 2011 and 2012 before signing a mega-extension that made him the highest-paid pitcher in history. He was heading into his age-30 season, and his ERA jumped from 2.64 in 2012 to 3.46 and then 4.54 each of the last two years. 

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported on the type of deal Shields could get:

One competing AL GM suggested he believes Shields should match the deals of Anibal Sanchez and C.J. Wilson, who received $80 million and $77.5 million, respectively, on five-year free-agent deals in recent seasons. That may be a bit of wishful management thinking, as Shields, a clear ace, could easily be a $20-million-a-year pitcher. Shields is already the highest paid Royal at $13 million, but has been a bargain for the team, making $22 million over his two-year stay.

To pay an aging 32-year-old pitcher $20 million is one thing, but to do it for five years, especially with the mileage already on Shields' arm, is another story.

Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald agrees Shields will get some five-year offers on the market, a scary proposition not only for the Kansas City Royals if they hope to keep their right-hander, but for other teams as well, especially teams with World Series hopes that think he can get them over the top. 

Projected Contract: Five years, $100 million

What I'd Give: Three years, $60 million

Funky delivery? Check.

Great 2014? Check.

Flash in the pan? Discount Double Check. 

OK, sorry for the terrible pun, but Pat Neshek is the guy to avoid this offseason in a talented pool of relievers. The journeyman right-hander wasn't able to sign an MLB offer this spring, signing with the Cardinals in February in what was called "depth signing" by many.

Coming into 2014, Neshek had a career 4.18 FIP (3.07 ERA) with 216 strikeouts in 214.1 innings pitched over seven seasons. However, he averaged only 32 games each season, which shows he was just used as a matchup guy, as opposed to someone who can get outs consistently. 

That's what makes his 2014 season so interesting.

Neshek threw the most innings (67.1) and games (71) since 2007. He also posted his lowest WHIP (0.79) since his debut back in 2006, along with a sparkling 1.87 ERA, to earn his first All-Star Game selection.

Part of the reason for his success was the uptick in velocity on his fastball, which jumped up to over 90 mph. He also drastically increased how often he threw the pitch—to over 50 percent of the time after throwing 84 percent sliders as recently as 2012.

Could this be the start of a new career for Neshek? Or will the 34-year-old right-hander turn out to be a one-year wonder? Neshek wants to stay in St. Louis, but Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com hints it's possible the Cards won't re-sign any of their pending free agents.

I could see him landing a Joe Smith-type offer, considering their similar pitching styles, and I don't think that's a good value to hand out to a reliever with such a short track record.

Projected Contract: Three years, $15 million

What I'd Give: One year, $5 million