India Today-Cicero Poll: Modi-led BJP projected to form next govt in Jharkhand
The party is projected to win 43-51 seats, while JMM is likely to bag 14-18 seats and the Congress 7-11 seats.
A resurgent BJP is predicted to bag the most number of seats in the Jharkhand Assembly and could form the next government in the eastern state where a JMM-Congress alliance was in power, says an India Today Group-Cicero Exit and Post Poll survey.
The Narendra Modi-led BJP and its allies are likely to win 43-51 (47) seats of the 81-member state Assembly. The Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), led by Hemant Soren, is projected to bag 14-18 (16) seats.
The Congress and its allies could get just 7-11 (9) seats, says the survey.
Other parties, including independents, are projected to win 7-11 (9) seats.
This is a big swing for the BJP, which won 23 seats in the last Assembly elections in 2009, and a big loss for the Congress that won 21 seats.
The JMM seems to have neither won nor lost any ground. The party won 18 seats in 2009.
The projections are based on the four phases of the polling in the state. The fifth phase of polling ended at 3 pm on Saturday.
The results will be declared on December 23.
Vote share
Despite the massive jump in the number of seats, the BJP is projected to secure a mere 5.9 per cent increase in vote share - from 30.1 per cent in 2009 to 37 per cent this year.
The big jump in vote share could be for the JMM - up from 11.7 per cent to 21 per cent.
The Congress' vote share seems headed for a fall, from 21.6 per cent to 16 per cent.
The vote share of others is also projected to fall- from 36.8 per cent to 26 per cent.
Sample
The total sample size of the post poll was 4,192 voters, from 187 polling stations in 41 Assembly constituencies (barring the ones that went to the polls on December 20).
Seat projections:
BJP+: 43-51 (47) seats
JMM: 14-18 (16) seats
Congress+: 7-11 (9) seats
Others: 7-11 (9) seats
Vote share:
BJP+: 37 per cent
JMM: 21 per cent
Congress+: 16 per cent
Others: 26 per cent