MLB's 10 Hottest Offseason Rumors Entering February

Andrew Gould@AndrewGould4X.com LogoFeatured ColumnistJanuary 30, 2015

MLB's 10 Hottest Offseason Rumors Entering February

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    Soon enough, after pitchers and catchers report and spring training commences, MLB's 2015 Opening Day will arrive.

    Before that day comes, several loose ends remain untied. James Shields still doesn't have an employer, and several players continue to appear in trade conversations. Time is running out to solve these conundrums.

    Luckily all 30 teams have two more months to figure everything out. With January winding down, let's take an updated look at the league's hot stove. 

Rockies Preserving Star Bats

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    Ever since the Colorado Rockies nosedived down the National League West standings, hot stoves burned with speculation of them trading star hitters Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.

    Don't count on it. General manager Jeff Bridich told Fox Sports' Jon Morosi that he is "highly, highly unlikely" to move either before Opening Day. So there's still a chance?

    Trading Gonzalez with his value at a nadir makes no sense. After compiling four consecutive 20/20 seasons, the outfielder hit .238/.292/.431 with 11 home runs and three stolen three bases during an injury-plagued season.

    If they're going to trade him, the Rockies will first let him rebuild his stock during the 2015 campaign. Otherwise they should not sell low on such a high-impact performer.

    Tulowitzki is the more intriguing trade candidate. As evident by last year's .340/.432/.603 slash line, there's no better shortstop on the planet when he's healthy. Yet the 30-year-old has played 101 games per season over the past four years, so Colorado would be remiss not to consider an offer that would stack its farm system.

    The most interesting suitor is the New York Mets, who have the need at shortstop and young pitching to grab Colorado's attention. Projected by Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA to fall one game out of a playoff bid at 82-80, a healthy Tulowitzki makes the Mets a real postseason threat.

    Yet an American League West executive told the New York Post's Joel Sherman that it's more than a reluctance to part with top prospect Noah Syndergaard preventing a deal. 

    ”I don’t think they have the financial flexibility to pay for him even if they could get him. I think they’re laying in the weeds waiting for hopeful January free-agent bargains.”

    This additional roadblock should put all whispers on ice for the foreseeable future.

James Shields Remains Available

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    Onlookers tend to scoff at free agents' demands, only to later watch an eager team gleefully meet them. That, however, is so far not the case with James Shields.

    Per USA Today's Bob Nightengale, the veteran starter's lofty asking price is the reason he remains available heading into February. While he wants a five-year, $125 million deal, organizations instead are negotiating in the four-year, $80 million range.

    According to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal, he might not net such a high annual salary regardless of the contract's length.

    "A five-year, $100 million deal for Shields was the original expectation by many in the industry," Rosenthal wrote. "A four-year deal probably is more realistic, and at this point it would be a surprise if Shields received $20 million per year."

    Teams are right to fear such a hefty agreement. The 33-year-old's strikeout rate dipped to 7.14 K/9, and 2013's 7.71 mark represented a steep decline from 2012's 8.82 clip. In addition to pitching 932.2 innings over the past four seasons, he also worked overtime last October during the Kansas City Royals' World Series run.

    Whoever signs Shields will likely snag him at the tail end of his career. Long-term deals rarely pan out for top pitchers in their 30s, and there's no reason to think he'll prove to be an exception to the rule. 

Yoan Moncada Close to Hitting Free Agency

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    Cuba's hottest new arrival will soon incite a bidding war. Yoan Moncada defected last year, and Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan reported that he is on way to receiving MLB free-agent eligibility:

    Star Cuban prospect Yoan Moncada no longer needs a specific unblocking license to play baseball in the United States, paving the way for Major League Baseball teams to pursue him with a contract most expect to shatter bonus records, government and major league sources told Yahoo Sports.

    One of the most exciting international talents imported to the United States, the young infielder could stick at second, shortstop or third base, perhaps even transition into outfield duty. Considered a complete package, he'd instantly jump to the top of most clubs' prospect rankings.

    FanGraphs' Kiley McDaniel raved about the teenage phenom:

    Moncada is 19 and packs a lot of tools into his 6’1/210 frame. He’s a plus-plus runner with above average raw power from both sides of the plate and the tools/skills to stick in the infield, possibly at shortstop. Moncada is the quick-twitch type with big bat speed that clubs covet and his track record of hitting at big tournaments and in Cuba’s professional leagues is excellent considering his age. 

    Because of the lofty hype, Moncada will cost a significant amount in spending bonuses. Passan mentioned the top contenders, none of whom will come as much of a surprise: 

    The New York YankeesBoston Red SoxLos Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs remain the favorites for Moncada, major league sources said, particularly because the team that signs him will need to pay nearly a dollar-for-dollar penalty on his bonus. For every dollar a team spends over its allotted international bonus pool between July 2, 2014, and June 15, 2015, it is taxed an equal amount.

    All are potentially terrifying destinations. With money to spend and a desperate need to make a youthful splash, the Yankees are especially a logical fit.

Who Wants Jonathan Papelbon?

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    A last-place team that could deteriorate even more in 2015, the Philadelphia Phillies have little use for Jonathan Papelbon. Entering the final year of a lavish contract, the 34-year-old closer is prime trade bait for a rebuilding organization.

    While his velocity and strikeout rates have steadily declined since leaving Boston, he has submitted a sub-3.00 ERA in all three seasons with Philadelphia, producing a 2.04 clip last year. He has at least one more solid year left in him, which is all a potential suitor requires.

    Rumors have surfaced and dried out involving the Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays, both of whom lost their former closers to free agency. Despite murmurs of talks dying down, MLB.com's Todd Zolecki said the Phillies continue to discuss a deal with both squads:

    Two sources said on Tuesday evening that the talks are alive, although the seriousness of those discussions is unclear. Yahoo! Sports first reported Friday that the Phils and Brewers were in serious negotiations. FOXSports.com mentioned the Blue Jays' interest. 

    In the days since, reports surfaced that a deal with either team is unlikely. But that has not stopped them from continuing to talk about Papelbon.

    Unlike Philadelphia, Toronto and Milwaukee are pushing for the playoffs, and feeble bullpens could cause their undoing. One of the game's most reliable relievers would spark either unit, and he shouldn't cost more than a low- or mid-level prospect. 

    Even if Papelbon remains with the Phillies on Opening Day, expect him to get moved before the season concludes. As for the two suitors, they are each eyeing an alternative on the open market.

Blue Jays, Brewers in Hunt for Francisco Rodriguez

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    Asserted into a permanent closing gig for the first time since 2011, Francisco Rodriguez returned to the spotlight with 44 saves and a 9.66 K/9 rate. Even though a .216 BABIP concealed some struggles, the 33-year-old free agent still possesses a lively arm.

    Following months of inactivity, K-Rod might end up staying with the Brewers. According to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, "Agent Scott Boras, who has a good relationship with Mark Attanasio and represents free-agent closer Francisco Rodriguez, has been trying to convince the Brewers owner that K-Rod Part IV would be a good thing for the team." 

    Haudricourt suggested the veteran endeared himself enough during his recent stay to orchestrate a reunion.

    "Manager Ron Roenicke likes Rodriguez and the Brewers certainly know what they have in him, so if the money can be figured out, it would not be a shock to see him back in a Milwaukee uniform."

    The Brewers aren't the only ones looking his way. Morosi tweeted about Toronto's interest in Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano. The Blue Jays are digging for bullpen help with Casey Janssen joining the Washington Nationals.

Angels, Huston Street Talk Extension

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    Huston Street made a strong impression with his new club, notching a 1.76 ERA in 26.1 innings with the Los Angeles Angels. While the 31-year-old reliever seemed to serve as a short-term rental, the Angels want to retain last year's midseason acquisition beyond 2015.

    MLB.com's Alden Gonzalez has the scoop:

    The Angels plan to start negotiating an extension with closer Huston Street during Spring Training and have already broached the subject with Street himself, a source said. The Angels exercised their $7 million club option on Street early in the offseason and would like to lock the 31-year-old right-hander up before he hits free agency next winter.

    Although he finished the season with a stellar 1.37 ERA, Street benefited from some unsustainable good fortune. Courtesy of FanGraphs, he yielded a microscopic .247 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) while stranding 93.3 percent of baserunners. His 2.80 fielding independent pitching (FIP) forebodes some regression.

    With that in mind, the Angels should not rush extension talks. Street wields all the negotiating power now, but a few shaky outings will regress his value.

    Besides, a veteran reliever should not top anyone's task list. Look at Papelbon, who continues to pitch well despite some natural decline. Although hardly a cautionary tale, he's still someone the Phillies are trying to unload.

    That's because a highly paid reliever is a luxury few teams can afford, and few late-inning arms deserve top dollar given their limited work schedules.

Everth Cabrera Still Unsigned

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    At this time last year, nobody would have anticipated Everth Cabrera getting dumped by the San Diego Padres and toiling away in free agency.

    A season removed from amassing a .355 on-base percentage and 37 steals, the speedy shortstop saw his on-base percentage plummet to .272. Frequent time on the disabled list also egged the Padres to unceremoniously jettison him.

    Nevertheless, the 28-year-old now exists as an intriguing low-risk, high-reward gamble, the kind general managers typically love securing to short-term deals. Someone will eventually bite.

    Last week, CBS Sports' Jon Heyman listed the Blue Jays as a potential buyer. Jose Reyes has shortstop covered, but a giant hole at second base soils an otherwise stacked infield. 

    Falling shy of the playoffs at 83-79, Toronto reloaded by adding Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson to an already potent offense. This year could be its best chance to capture a wide-open AL East. After swinging for the fences with power upgrades, it now can make another dent with a swift middle infielder.

Mets 'Not Close on Trading Dillon Gee'

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    Despite their established need for another bat, the Mets are flushed with starting pitching. With Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jacob deGrom, Jon Niese and Bartolo Colon all due rotation spots as Syndergaard waits his turn, Dillon Gee is currently the odd man out.

    The club has shopped the 28-year-old righty for months, but he remains a Met shortly before pitchers and catchers report to camp. According to MLB.com's Anthony DiComo, the Mets are "not close" to changing that fact.

    After filing a 4.00 ERA last season, Gee is expendable enough for New York, but decent enough to round out someone else's rotation. Linked to him during the winter meetings, the Rockies and Texas Rangers could use him to patch bleak rotations.

    Then again, a contact pitcher with a 3.36 career ERA at home and 4.56 ERA away from cushy Citi Field wouldn't project well in either confined ballpark. Those splits will frighten teams chasing a pitcher, even one who shouldn't cost much to attain.

Dayan Viciedo Designated for Assignment

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    A frequent prop in trade discussions, Dayan Viciedo will see his tenure with the Chicago White Sox expire soon.

    After inking second baseman Gordon Beckham to a one-year deal, the club designated Viciedo for assignment on Wednesday, giving the White Sox eight more days to trade or release the 25-year-old outfielder.

    “It got to the point where Dayan didn’t very likely fit on this club in a meaningful way for 2015,” general manager Rick Hahn told CSNChicago.com's Dan Hayes. “The thought with designating him was flesh out any interest over the next 10 days or so and find him a better home going into the next season.”

    Despite clubbing 61 home runs over the past three seasons, Viciedo's .298 career on-base percentage extradited him for Chicago's good graces. Since joining the team in 2010, he has accrued a minus-0.1 WAR, per FanGraphs

    Although the Seattle Mariners are often cited as a trade candidate, Fox Sports' Jon Morosi wrote about them no longer serving as a viable trading partner:

    The Mariners have pursued Viciedo off and on for months, if not years. So, we know the interest is there. But Seattle doesn’t have the roster space for Viciedo that it once did, after adding Nelson Cruz, Seth Smith and Justin Ruggiano in outfield or designated hitter roles this winter. About the only way the Mariners can acquire Viciedo now is if they are comfortable marginalizing — or even trading — incumbent left fielder Dustin Ackley, which seems unlikely. 

    It now appears Hahn must either trade Viciedo for pennies or outright let him go.

Twins Not Interested in Rickie Weeks

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    Once an exciting contributor in his brief glimpses of health, Rickie Weeks can't get anyone to rescue him from free agency.

    While the Minnesota Twins surfaced as a possible destination, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN shot down any interest. With Brian Dozier manning second base, Weeks would have amounted to no more than organizational depth anyway.

    Once a potent power and speed punch, the 32-year-old's career has fizzled with a combined 18 homers and 10 steals through the past two years combined. Yet he offered a promising .809 OPS through 286 plate appearances last year for the Brewers, largely handling opposing southpaws.

    Over his career, Weeks is a .261/.385/.447 hitter against lefties. He's best served as a platoon player at this stage, but teams aren't shackled to employing him in that role. Last year, he managed a .294 average against right-handers.

    The stagnant market could signify teams wising up. A quick look at his FanGraphs page reveals a .355 BABIP, well below his .305 career rate and unsustainable with his inflated 56.7 ground-ball percentage. He's no longer a spry runner who can constantly beat out infield hits, and his 25.5 strikeout percentage also supports significant regression for his .274 batting average. 

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