2015 Sprint Cup Stock Watch: Week 7

Joe Menzer@@OneMenzX.com LogoFeatured ColumnistMarch 30, 2015

2015 Sprint Cup Stock Watch: Week 7

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    Denny Hamlin ran circles around the competition at Martinsville Speedway.
    Denny Hamlin ran circles around the competition at Martinsville Speedway.Don Petersen/Associated Press

    At the end of a trying week in what already has been a tumultuous season for Joe Gibbs Racing, Denny Hamlin gave the organization a much-needed lift by winning the STP 500 at Virginia's Martinsville Speedway last Sunday.

    It was the first win for Hamlin and for the JGR group since Hamlin won at Talladega last May, a stretch of nearly a full year and 31 Sprint Cup races. It also came just days after JGR announced that team president J.D. Gibbs, one of the most respected executives in NASCAR, would be undergoing medical treatment for symptoms impacting areas of brain function.

    Winning at Martinsville made the ending of a difficult week in a trying season for more palatable (keep in mind that one of JGR's other top drivers, Kyle Busch, has yet to run a Cup race this season after suffering leg and foot injuries in the season-opening Xfinity Series race at Daytona). 

    "This sport is a humbling sport. It shows you how hard it is. We work hard, extremely hard, and yeah, it's been a long time since we've won a race," team owner Joe Gibbs, J.D's father and the former NFL coach, said via FoxSports.com. "Each one of these things, when you win one, it's a humbling experience that you really want to enjoy, and we're going to do that this week."

    Hamlin's stock, then, is on the rise. But not everyone's is.

    Based not only on who's been racking up the wins lately, but also chemistry and communication with crew chiefs and pit crews, momentum and, at least in one case, positive reviews of a supposedly new-and-improved product, read on to see whose stock should be bought, held or sold in the coming weeks.

Matt DiBenedetto

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    Anyone with the guts to call out Tony Stewart deserves to see his stock go up.
    Anyone with the guts to call out Tony Stewart deserves to see his stock go up.Daniel Shirey/Getty Images

    Never heard of DiBenedetto? That's OK.

    Most people hadn't until he called three-time Sprint Cup champion Tony Stewart "an arrogant p---k" following an incident in Sprint Cup practice at Martinsville, according to FoxSports.com.

    Hey, anyone with the guts to call Stewart out deserves a little love. 

    "When I got to (Turn) 3 I didn't want to hold him up, so I just pulled up high and let him go by," DiBenedetto said, via Fox. "I got completely out of his way, but that wasn't enough. He tried to wreck me a few times, brake-checking me and flipping me off around the whole track."

    The 23-year-old rookie driver for BK Racing had a right to be upset. Had Stewart wrecked him, DiBenedetto had no backup car to go to with his small-budget team. 

    The fact is Stewart hasn't been in a good mood most of this season. He's not running well (currently 32nd in the points standings) and recently has sniped at others, most notably Martin Truex Jr., for alleged offenses on the track and at NASCAR itself for forcing him to drive a car he hates under a rules package he apparently despises.

    Maybe DiBenedetto could have said it better, but Smoke needs to lighten up.

    Verdict: Buy

Kyle Larson

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    Kyle Larson should be fine, but first he needs to make sure his health is fine.
    Kyle Larson should be fine, but first he needs to make sure his health is fine.Daniel Shirey/Getty Images

    Probably no one is happier to take the upcoming Easter weekend off from racing than driver Kyle Larson and his Felix Sabates-backed Chip Ganassi Racing team.

    Larson missed last Sunday's event at Martinsville after fainting during an autograph session at the track on Saturday and spent the night under observation at a Charlotte, North Carolina, hospital. The 2014 Sprint Cup Rookie of the Year underwent neurological and even cardiology tests, according to NBA Sports.com's Dustin Long.

    All indications Monday were that Larson is going to be fine and back behind the wheel of the No. 42 car for the next Sprint Cup race at Texas on April 11. But the incident at Martinsville was quite an eye-opening scare, and obviously all eyes in Texas will be upon the young driver if he's cleared by physicians, team officials and NASCAR to get back to work.

    Verdict: Hold

Chase Elliott

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    Chase Elliott's time will come in Sprint Cup, but it's not here yet.
    Chase Elliott's time will come in Sprint Cup, but it's not here yet.Matt Sullivan/Getty Images

    The talented Elliott almost certainly will be a superstar in Sprint Cup some day soon but wasn't during his Sprint Cup debut at Martinsville last Sunday.

    Elliott was involved in an accident on Lap 73 of the 500-lap event, suffering considerable damage to both the front and the rear of his No. 25 Chevrolet in the process. The damage required him to take his car to the garage for lengthy repairs, and by the time he returned to the track he was destined for a poor finish (38th, 73 laps behind the leaders).

    Next year Elliott will take over full-time for Jeff Gordon in the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy. This was the first of five races he and Hendrick have scheduled for this year to help ease the transition, which illustrates that there is a considerable learning curve even for someone as talented as Elliott.

    The next race for the defending Xfinity Series champion is slated for Richmond in April. Let's see how he does on that short track before picking his Cup stock back up.

    Verdict: Sell (but only for now)

Team Penske Drivers

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    Team Penske teammates Brad Keselowski (left) and Joey Logano are starting to pick up where they left off last season.
    Team Penske teammates Brad Keselowski (left) and Joey Logano are starting to pick up where they left off last season.Jerry Markland/Getty Images

    Yes, Joey Logano won the season-opening Daytona 500.

    But Brad Keselowski, Logano's teammate, seemed to be a little off at the beginning of the season. Some wondered if the Team Penske tandem might struggle to match their dual success last year as this season progressed and they continued to wage competitive battle with bigger Chevrolet and Toyota organizations.

    Six races into the season, questions regarding that possibility have become muted, as both Logano and BK appear to be building momentum.

    Keselowski won his first race of the season two weeks ago at Auto Club Speedway and nearly made it two in a row at Martinsville, where he finished second. He's up to fourth in the points, while Logano is second after starting from the pole and finishing a strong third at Martinsville to give him three top-five and six top-10 finishes in as many races on the season.

    Keselowski acknowledges that the Stewart-Haas Racing Chevys have been faster overall than his and Logano's Fords thus far.

    "We've all got some work to do to catch up to them," Keselowski told FoxSports.com of SHR. "But there's, what, seven months until then? Or six months at least? And when that time comes, you know, that's when you need to be fast. A lot of time to keep developing and pushing to get better, and everybody will."

    Verdict: Buy

Dale Earnhardt Jr.

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    Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been up-and-down of late but should snap out of it.
    Dale Earnhardt Jr. has been up-and-down of late but should snap out of it.Steve Helber/Associated Press/Associated Press

    Earnhardt Jr. began the season by finishing fourth or better in each of his first three races.

    But in the last three he's been like a yo-yo, finishing 43rd after crashing at Phoenix, sixth at Fontana and 36th after wrecking again in Martinsville.

    Is it bad luck? At least partially, yes.

    The key now will be how the driver and his No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy team respond to a little adversity under the guidance of new crew chief Greg Ives. The next time it might require a timely gamble on pit road for a shot at victory, will Ives make the right call without hesitation? Will Earnhardt Jr. be on board with it, even if it doesn't work out?

    All signs point to "yes." But the prudent call here is that they're so new together, so let's wait and see.

    Verdict: Hold

AJ Allmendinger

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    As driver of a single-car team at JTG Daugherty Racing, AJ Allmendinger sometimes gets that lonely feeling.
    As driver of a single-car team at JTG Daugherty Racing, AJ Allmendinger sometimes gets that lonely feeling.Jerry Markland/Getty Images

    Allmendinger began the season on a hot streak that seemed unlikely to continue, if only because he's the driver on a single-car team at JTG Daugherty Racing.

    And now it appears reality is catching up to him and the No. 47 Chevy team despite a technical alliance with Richard Childress Racing.

    After rising to as high as fifth in the points after the first three races and remaining there despite a so-so 17th-place finish at Phoenix, Allmendinger struggled to a 34th-place finish at Fontana and finished last in the 43-car field at Martinsville when an oil leak forced him to retire for the day after completing only 177 of 500 scheduled laps.

    The back-to-back tough finishes have dropped Allmendinger like a rock in the standings to 20th.

    Verdict: Sell

Martinsville Hot Dogs

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    It was a big deal when Martinsville Speedway decided to mess with its hot dogs.
    It was a big deal when Martinsville Speedway decided to mess with its hot dogs.Tyler Barrick/Getty Images

    Controversy was afoot at Martinsville Speedway last weekend, and this time it didn't have anything to do with Tony Stewart or anything happening on the track (well, except for Stewart's dust-up with the little-known DiBenedetto).

    Nope. We're talking hot dogs here.

    If you've ever been to Martinsville, then surely you've had one of their famous $2 hot dogs smothered in chili, onions, cole slaw and whatever else they put on it. Simply put, they're delicious AND affordable, a combination that always sits well with race fans (and if you've been to Martinsville and haven't tried one, shame on you).

    So when the track announced that they were switching from Jesse Jones Southern Style hot dogs, which had been staples at the facility's concession stands since the place opened in 1947, to Valleydale dogs from Smithfield Foods, there was a bit of an uproar.

    Alas, it didn't take long for the likes of Earnhardt Jr. and others to quiet the crowd by declaring the new dogs to taste nearly identical to the old ones.

    Verdict: Buy

Danica Patrick

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    Danica Patrick made a little history last Sunday at Martinsville Speedway.
    Danica Patrick made a little history last Sunday at Martinsville Speedway.Alex Goodlett/Getty Images

    There has been plenty of Danica-bashing going on in NASCAR since she came over to stock cars from open-wheel racing.

    And quite honestly, much of it has been justified. She seemingly hasn't accomplished a whole lot since being rushed onto the Sprint Cup circuit full-time in 2013.

    But she ran very well at Martinsville, finishing seventh on a tricky track known for making competitors rough each other up and frequently lose their tempers. That was only one spot off her career-best finish of sixth last year at Atlanta and gave her five top-10 finishes in 88 career starts, tying her with Janet Guthrie for most top-10 finishes by a female in NASCAR history (although Guthrie did it in 33 career starts).

    Patrick is a respectable 16th in the current points standings, which represents by far her best start in any of her three full-time Cup seasons. That and the most recent run at Martinsville is enough to warrant keeping an eye on Patrick's possible progress in the coming weeks.

    Verdict: Hold

Roush Fenway Racing Drivers

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    You can't blame Ricky Stenhouse Jr. for having a panicked look on his face.
    You can't blame Ricky Stenhouse Jr. for having a panicked look on his face.Rainier Ehrhardt/Getty Images

    Remember when Roush Fenway Racing was not only relevant but respected as one of the top organizations in the Sprint Cup garage?

    It wasn't that long ago, but that time appears to have passed.

    Six races into this season, all three Roush drivers are outside the top 20 in points, with Greg Biffle 21st, Trevor Bayne 26th and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 28th. Stenhouse wrecked so many times at Martinsville that veteran FoxSport.com writer Tom Jensen tweeted he "hit everything but the pace car and the Virginia lottery."

    The bad news is that the bad news isn't likely to cease anytime soon for the Roush Fenway boys, whose cars just can't come close to matching the speed of the top competitors in the Cup these days despite supposed improvements last offseason to the company's engineering team.

    "Every week we all hope to see some improvement, but it just never materializes," former championship crew chief Jeff Hammond wrote for Fox Sports. "Even RFR's veteran driver, Greg Biffle, said last week that it's like a slow death over there. I think it is really surprising because after a very dismal 2014 season compounded by losing marquee driver Carl Edwards to Joe Gibbs Racing, the Roush bunch made a bunch of changes in the offseason, but so far it looks to (be to) no avail."

    Verdict: Sell

Denny Hamlin and Crew Chief Dave Rogers

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    Denny Hamlin and his new crew chief Dave Rogers gave Joe Gibbs Racing a huge lift at Martinsville.
    Denny Hamlin and his new crew chief Dave Rogers gave Joe Gibbs Racing a huge lift at Martinsville.Steve Helber/Associated Press

    Hamlin won at Martinsville after complaining about his car and his pit crew, but that's how the sport is sometimes.

    Each time Hamlin seemed about to lose it, his new crew chief, Dave Rogers, helped reel Hamlin's emotions back in and keep him focused (Rogers used to be Kyle Busch's crew chief, so he's had lots of practice at that).

    In the end, they all pulled together to give themselves in particular and the entire Joe Gibbs Racing organization in general a huge victory, easing the pain of a difficult start to the season. The victory also ensures that Hamlin and the No. 11 Toyota team will be part of the Chase for the Sprint Cup that determines the season's champion.

    "Yeah, it's a big deal," Rogers told Fox Sports. "We get the monkey off our back early, build some confidence with this race team. We've got a lot of new faces on the team... "

    Hamlin added: 

    You know, even though it doesn't cure things, it makes things better, and what this does for our race team in particular is that we've got some kinks in our team right now, but like Dave says, this allows you -- this buys you months of time to get everything worked out and get all the kinks worked out because we know we can go on a championship run.

    Hamlin should know. Despite registering only one win at Talladega last year, which came when the field was frozen during a last-lap caution, he made it all the way to the Championship 4, in which the top four drivers left in the Chase raced for the title in the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway.

    Now he's guaranteed to be in the Chase and get another run at it again with his new crew chief.

    Verdict: Buy

    Joe Menzer has written six books, including two about NASCAR, and now writes about it and other sports for Bleacher Report as well as covering NASCAR as a writer and editor for FoxSports.com. Follow him on Twitter @OneMenz.

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