MLB's Early Winners and Losers of 2015 International Free Agency

MLB's 2015-16 international signing period kicked off Thursday, which may mean a lot or a little to you, depending on how much you pay attention to this stuff.

Essentially, beginning July 2, teams can sign international free agents who weren't available in the recent amateur draft.

Each club is awarded a bonus-pool allotment, which is based on its record the previous season. Exceed your bonus pool and you'll incur a penalty, including the inability to sign an international player for more than $300,000 for up to two years.

Got all that?

Don't worry; you don't have to. The gist is that this is the time when teams ink (or don't ink) tantalizing, often teenage, talent from overseas.

A lot of these players won't pan out; even top scouts are taking educated guesses, often based on limited information.

Plus, we're only a few days into the signing period, so it's difficult to assess who has won and lost. The battle is just getting started.

Then again, we've seen enough players sign and have gotten a taste of enough teams' strategies to highlight some early "winners" and "losers," with the quotation marks added to indicate this is a fluid process.

Essentially, teams will be rewarded for getting more talent with a smaller bonus pool and punished for getting less with more. But we'll also factor in the star wattage of certain players (see: Guerrero, Vladimir Jr.).

To further shine a light, we'll be using bonus-pool figures from Ben Badler of Baseball America and signing and ranking information from Badler and MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez, plus takes from other experts and our own analysis, seasoned as ever with a dash of gut feeling.

Bonus Pool: $1,968,600

The Los Angeles Angels have the smallest bonus pool in the game, thanks to their MLB-best 98-64 record in 2014.

They're also bound by the $300,000-per-player restriction, per Baseball America.

Add behind-the-scenes dysfunction between manager Mike Scioscia and general manager Jerry DiPoto that triggered DiPoto's resignation and you've got the ingredients for inaction.

Too bad, considering ESPN's Keith Law ranked the Halos' farm system No. 27 out of 30.

Bonus Pool: $2,130,900

Are we rewarding the San Francisco Giants, in part, because they signed a player who shares a moniker with a Batman character that was played by Morgan Freeman?

OK, maybe a little.

Mostly, though, the Giants get points for nabbing a top-shelf talent.

Yes, Lucius Fox cost the defending champs a $6 million bonus, meaning they'll pay penalties and slide into the restricted-spending category next season.

But he's also, according to MLB.com, the third-best international prospect on the market. Here's a snip from their scouting report:

One of the most intriguing prospects on the market, Fox is an interesting combination of speed, athleticism, a projectable body and age. ...Some consider [him] a five-tool player and the best overall athlete in the class. He's advanced. On defense, Fox is a sure-handed fielder with quick actions, and he has a strong enough arm to keep him at shortstop.

That, and the Morgan Freeman thing.

Bonus Pool: $2,262,800

The New York Yankees splurged on the international market in 2014 and have nudged their minor league ranks back to respectability.

"Their system is a lot better, dramatically better," an unnamed scout told Joel Sherman of the New York Post. "They have come a long way in the last year."

Still, these are the Yankees, the franchise that's always expected to make a splash.

And they showed interest in Cuban-born Eddy Julio Martinez, an outfielder who's drawn Andruw Jones comparisons, but struck out because of price constraints, per MLB.com's Sanchez.

How very un-Yankee.

Bonus Pool: $2,324,100

Again we're falling victim to the allure of a name. This time, though, it's got nothing to do with superheroes.

Not unless you count Vladimir Guerrero as a superhero, which some observers might. Through 16 stellar seasons, "Vlad the Impaler" made nine All-Star teams, won an MVP Award and generally established himself as one of the great free swingers of all time.

Of course, genetics don't equal destiny. Baseball history is littered with sons who failed to live up to their fathers' legacies (or, conversely, sons who far surpassed their progenitors' output).

But Vlad Jr., whom the Jays landed for a $3.9 million bonus, has already flashed eye-opening tools at age 16.

"Since I’ve been doing this, I haven't seen a kid with that power," Blue Jays director of Latin American operations Ismael Cruz told SportsNet.ca's Ben Nicholson-Smith. "This kid is not about the money. He has a lot of money. He plays because he likes it. He wants to be better than his father."

We'd pay to see that.

Bonus Pool: $5,393,900

The Arizona Diamondbacks entered the international free-agent signing period with the biggest bonus pool in baseball. 

Yes, they exceeded their limit in 2014-15, subjecting them to the $300,000-per-player cap.

Still, the D'Backs had an opportunity to make a little noise, yet opted instead to swap slots with the Philadelphia Phillies, who also sent a couple of minor league pitchers, Chris Oliver and Josh Taylor, to Arizona. 

It's impossible to say without the benefit of hindsight, but Philadelphia appears to have won this trade by increasing its bonus pool without coughing up anything of great value.

And losing a trade to the woeful Phils, even by a little, stings a lot.

Bonus Pool: $2,020,300

In the baseball world, blue is the new pinstripe. Which is to say, while the Yankees haven't relinquished their big-spender credentials, the Los Angeles Dodgers are angling for the title of deepest pockets on the block.

Just ask 18-year-old Cuban hurler Yadier Alvarez, who landed a $16 million bonus from the Dodgers on the strength of a live fastball, plus changeup and "surprisingly good" slider, per FanGraphs' Kiley McDaniel.

Add outfielder Starling Heredia, whom Los Angeles signed for a $2.6 million bonus, and the Dodgers inked two of MLB.com's top five international free agents.

Is it a gamble? Of course. Could it backfire and cost them down the road? You bet.

But, to crib from the great Wayne Gretzky: In the big-money, speculative world of international free agency, you miss 100 percent of the shots you don't take.