Inverse Drumbeat for Yield and Gold

Jack Steiman, On Dismal Day for Bulls (SwingTradeOnline.com)

The market looked powerful prior to Monday's open. However, about an hour before the open, the futures started falling fast, allowing for a flat bell ring. It didn't go well from there for the bulls as the market began to fall harder and harder as the day went along. Lots of little rallies along the way, but in the end a pretty dismal day for the bulls.

The good news is that for the moment the bulls were able to hold the bottom of the second gap up but a few pennies. If that goes away there's the first gap to deal with, but for now, you still can't get bearish as there's no major break of key support. So we're not totally bearish, but there's nothing to get excited about on the long side of the ledger. The market is simply unplayable for the most part. Cash the best position out there for the moment.

Still, you can't be happy if you're bullish at this moment in time. The weekly and monthly-index charts are poor. The daily charts are showing weak oscillators. Froth has been off the charts for a very long time. Bears are in deep hibernation. Yes, there were two strong gap up days last week that ran higher all day, but let's just say those could end up being a huge head fake.

Once again the bearish stocks of the past few months, after seemingly putting in bottoming sticks last week, under performed on Monday. The technology stocks we're used to seeing only moving north are spending a great deal of time heading south. From Google Inc. (GOOG) to Priceline.com (PCLN) and from Netflix Inc. (NFLX) to Tesla Inc. (TSLA) and Amazon Inc. (AMZN), the group is getting hit almost daily with solid losses. In the real world that makes perfect sense based on their valuations, but this game isn't real so it's worrisome to see these stocks unable to bid even after clear bottoming candles.

Same deal with the financials. Two recent breakouts have led to almost instant reversals back below those breakout levels. You can't count on anything bullish holding these days, and in my opinion it's due mostly to the problem of froth, which has been with us far too long. To be blunt, this is the number one reason I'm so cautious. Commodities stocks are now being joined by other areas of the market in finding it difficult to bid. Fewer and fewer areas in the market that are bidding well. Not great for the bulls. The number of stocks to throw the darts at are diminishing.

Listen folks, there's no way to know what we can expect from here. The environment is complicated since we haven't broken the 50-day exponential moving averages quite yet with force, and so we haven't had the classic back test and failure which would usher in a much larger selling episode. Until this occurs it's really not prudent to get too bearish. Nonetheless, clear upside sustainability is more troublesome for the bulls for here. In times like this we go to the third position, which is cash. It can be your best friend until more clarity is upon us. This would be what I believe is best for everyone, but, of course, you may have different thoughts and ideas, so play as you wish, but recognize the risk for both sides here as the market works out what it wants to do short to medium term.

Difficult is the best word I can find to use for where we are in this cycle. Keeping it light.

Mike Paulenoff, On Inverse Drumbeat for Yield and Gold (MPTrader.com)

A combination of factors -- oil & copper prices, sluggish wage growth, weakness in equities today -- are pressuring 10-year Yield, which is now at 1.93%, or 10 bps below Friday's Jobs Report recovery high.

Only a sharp rally above 2.03% will argue technically that Yield has put in a meaningful bottom in and around the 1.90% area.

Conversely, Gold, it is acting extremely well, given the constant headwind of a rising US Dollar (DXY) and otherwise growing deflationary perceptions.

Something is going on in the Gold market that is grinding it higher in an impressive display of relative strength.

My next optimal target zone is $1240-$1244. Key near-term support rests at $1218.00.

Harry Boxer, On 4 Charts to Watch for Tuesday (TheTechTrader.com)

The stock market sure looked ugly on Monday, but some of our stocks looked really good. It's almost like we're in a different world. It's nice to trade winners, but you'll see a lot of stocks that are long in the tooth, especially some of the biotech stocks -- so be very careful.

Agenus Inc. (AGEN) is an example of a stock that exploded and is breaking away. It had two consecutive gaps and two big volume days. Almost 56 million shares traded in two days. On Monday, it was up 88 cents to 6.17, or nearly 17%, on 27 million shares. Looking at the long-term chart, you'll see that there is resistance up around the 7.00 range. That should be the short-term target in the next day or two.

Hutchinson Technology Inc. (HTCH) had a good day on Monday, up 55 cents to 4.25, or almost 15%, on 1.1 million shares. It had a gap, and then a run up to resistance. A little bit of additional resistance occurs around 4.85. That could be the next move, but the overall structure shows a massive head-and-shoulders pattern, which could put the next move into the high single digits.

Juno Therapeutics Inc. (JUNO), a fairly new IPO, had an excellent day on Monday, up 7.24 to 61.51 or 13%, on 2.6 million shares. Looking at the 15-minute chart, you can see that after the run-up and consolidation, it broke out on Monday. Look for this one to head up towards the 70-72 zone.

Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSRI) is one of several silver stocks that broke out on Monday, up 52 cents to 6.29, or 9%, on 3.8 million shares. The key is that the base is broken and the volume is picking up. The next target could be a test of 6.71 early on, and then the 7-7 1/4 range. The secondary target is set at 7 3/4-8.

Other stocks on Harry's Charts of the Day are Advaxis, Inc. (ADXS), Agenus Inc. (AGEN), BioTelemetry, Inc. (BEAT), Cempra, (CEMP), DepoMed Inc. (DEPO), FireEye, Inc. (FEYE), Frontline Shippers (FRO), Halozyme Therapeutics, Inc. (HALO), Hologic Inc. (HOLX), Hutchinson Technology Inc. (HTCH), Idera Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (IDRA), Direxion Daily Jr Gld Mnrs Bull 3X Shrs (JNUG), Juno Therapeutics Inc. (JUNO), Kite Pharma, Inc. (KITE), Novavax, Inc. (NVAX), Opko Health, Inc. (OPK), ProShares UltraShort DJ-UBS Crude Oil (SCO), Silver Wheaton Corp. (SLW), Silver Standard Resources Inc. (SSRI), Teekay Tankers Ltd. (TNK), Unilife Corporation (UNIS).