American Way: Republicans beware, midterms are not always a sign of things to come

Whatever happens on November 4 could have huge ramifications, even if they aren't obvious at first blush

 U.S. President Barack Obama, who is in New York City for the 69th Session of the United Nations General Assembly, speaks at the Clinton Global Initiative on September 23, 2014 in New York City. World leaders, activists and protesters have converged on New York City for the annual UN event that brings together the global leaders for a week of meetings and conferences. This year 's General Assembly has highlighted the problem of global warming and how countries need to strive to  reduce greenhouse gas emissions. American Way: Don't let anybody tell you these midterm elections are meaningless
Obamanomics has been rejected in Florida, Maryland, Arkansas, even the President's home state of Illinois. Credit: Photo: GETTY

The midterm elections being held a week from Tuesday will be the most important elections in the history of America, right?

We say that every two years, and they can't all be the most important. Still, the truth is that what happens on November 4 could have huge ramifications, even if they aren't obvious at first blush.

That’s what President Obama thinks. The president is insisting – to the consternation of vulnerable Democrats currently trying to distance themselves from him – that this election is a referendum on his presidency and the achievements he claims. "Make no mistake, he recently averred, "these policies are on the ballot. Every single one of them."

The cynical political observer will point out that President Obama is a lame duck, and that it is highly unlikely Congress will pass anything substantive these next two years no matter who wins.

That's not exactly the case. It’s true that as long as he's in office, Obama can veto almost any Republican attempt to roll back his agenda – and as long as Democrats don't get completely swamped, they will still be able to filibuster legislation (though employing these methods of gridlock too frequently could cast Democrats as obstructionists).

But if Republicans do take the senate, it is possible they could pass a few modest things, such as the Keystone XL oil pipeline, by wooing enough Democrats to support it. They could also launch themselves into procedural manoeuvres and high-stakes confrontations. They could, for example, join their House colleagues in investigations into controversial matters like the killing of the US ambassador to Libya, Christopher Stevens, in Benghazi.

They could also block the confirmation of executive-branch appointees and non-Supreme Court Justices. And if a Supreme Court vacancy should occur, they could block that, too. (These are lifetime appointments, and there is arguably no more important or lasting legacy a president can leave than his Supreme Court appointments.)

Ironically, too, winning in 2014 for the Republicans could also come with a potential downside, with a much longer-lasting effect – especially if Republicans misread the victory as evidence of a mandate. To the extent Democrats appear poised to lose, this has much more to do with voters voicing their rejection of Obama's policies than with their embracing Republican ideas.

A victory a week from Tuesday might give Republicans a false sense of security heading into the 2016 cycle – possibly emboldening them to postpone tackling some serious, if painful, policy conundrums – such as what to do about immigration reform. After all, they might reason, "we won, and if it ain't broke, don't fix it."

The trouble is that midterm elections are not necessarily a harbinger of things to come. For one thing, the electorate is entirely different from a presidential year. Midterms have a much lower turnout, and the people who bother to show up at the polls tend to be older and whiter.

As an analysis by the New York Times' The Upshot demonstrated, “Republicans would probably hold the House — and still have a real chance to retake the Senate — if they lost every single Hispanic voter in the country.” That obviously wouldn't be true in a presidential election, where turnout is higher, and where winning states like Florida and Nevada is contingent on attracting at least some Hispanic votes.

There's one last thing that we should all keep an eye on, and that is the possibility that one of the strongest potential Republican presidential candidates in the emerging 2016 primary field could have his presidential aspirations strangled in the crib, should he lose his re-election. As I pen this, the latest poll shows the Republican governor of Wisconsin, Scott Walker, holding just a one-point lead over his Democratic challenger, Mary Burke. With a nation that has grown tired of Washington dysfunction, a governor like Walker might be just what the doctor ordered. He could be somebody – a contender! But only if he can survive next Tuesday.

Don't let anybody tell you these elections are meaningless.

Matt K. Lewis is a senior contributor at The Daily Caller website in Washington, DC