BackManaging India’s strategic calculus
Narendra Modi has an instinctive feel for India's foreign policy challenges
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Narendra Modi has surprised many with his enthusiasm for foreign affairs. The Indian prime minister seems to have taken direct charge of our main strategic relationships. His diary in September was dominated by discussions with leaders of three very important countries: Japan, China and the US. The fourth key strategic relationship is with Russia.
The meeting with Shinzo Abe was clearly a success. Japan is clearly keen on deepening its ties with India given the common concerns about China. The hopes of a new understanding with China after the visit of Xi Jinping seem to have been belied. The fact that the value of business deals signed were merely a fifth of what had been claimed as well as the adventurism of the Chinese army on the border suggest that something went wrong at that meeting. Modi seems to have met with some success in getting the relationship with the US back on track despite the fact that the Barack Obama administration has lost its overall foreign policy moorings in recent years.
Managing the strategic calculus is a complicated task. The confluence of interests is perhaps the clearest when it comes to Japan. The thorniest relationship is with China despite growing bilateral trade as well as attempts to cooperate in new regional institutions such as the Brics Bank. The US continues to see India through the prism of its China policy which also means that it may lose its recent enthusiasm in case it manages to strike a sustainable strategic deal with Beijing. And then there is Russia. That country is now something of a pariah after its land grab in Crimea but it has historically been a friend; Russia is also an important source of defence equipment, so it is strategically important to India.
These shifting sands are inevitable in a complex world. The real task of the Modi government will be to increase Indian leverage in each of its key relationships. The key here will be faster economic growth. A stronger Indian economy will offer several strategic advantages: greater internal stability, the resources for technological modernization, a bigger contribution in global trade, tax revenues to build military capabilities and a greater say in global institutions, for example.
In a speech he gave in February 2013 in memory of the strategic thinker K. Subrahmanyam, then finance minister P. Chidambaram succinctly framed the challenge: “Today, we have a choice. We have a choice between becoming the third largest economy of the world and a middle income country or becoming one of the largest economies of the world that muddles along with the bulk of its people trapped in a life of low income, poor quality, high morbidity and great inequality. Needless to say, the two models of India will have very different consequences for national security. The first model will make India a secure nation, capable of defending itself, and a force of peace in the neighbourhood and elsewhere. The second model will leave the country exposed to every kind of threat to which will be added internal conflicts, and India will be viewed as a strife-torn country that is a threat to the peace and progress of the world and, in particular, Asia. A nation that was the cradle of civilization five thousand years ago must choose wisely and, once the choice is made, it must have the resolve and the power to stay the course."
Modi seems to have an instinctive feel for these challenges. The centrality of economic engagement in his discussions with Japan, China and the US suggest that he understands the importance of economic progress in national security when it is broadly defined. India needs at least two decades of strong economic growth if it has to develop the global heft that is needed to secure our national interest.
Is slow growth affecting India’s ability to manage its strategic affairs well? Tell us at views@livemint.com
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