Wikibon analysts Steve Chambers and Stu Miniman lobbed a grenade into the so-far polite debate over whether software containers are a complement or a threat to server virtualization. Containers could not only supplant virtual machines within enterprises on a grand scale, but they may transform the software industry and redefine the way companies build and deploy technology, they suggest.

Up to this point, container technology has been synonymous with Docker, the open-source project that burst forth from platform-as-a-service provide dotCloud, Inc. a little more than two years ago. Docker provided a simpler alternative to virtual machines serving up just the essential services applications need to operate. As a result, “Docker makes the spin-up and spin-down of instances move from minutes/seconds to milliseconds,” the analysts write in a new Wikibon research brief.

Docker isn’t the only container out there (Microsoft recently announced a similar Windows-only technology), but it’s the one that caught fire. A long list of blue-chip companies are supporting it, including Microsoft, Red Hat, Inc., Amazon Web Services, Pivotal Software, Inc. and VMware, Inc. “Red Hat was so committed to Docker that it delayed the release of its Red Hat Enterprise Linux 7 platform to make sure Docker containers could be fully supported,” the analysts write.

Docker visualization of container technology

VMware’s endorsement is particularly interesting, since some people see containers as a threat to the company’s flagship virtualization engine. VMware has said the two technologies are complementary, but the Wikibon analysts beg to differ.

“Containers could usurp VMs as the unit of deployment, which means that hypervisor demand could decrease, which will impact revenues of those vendors,” they write, without naming VMware specifically. “The whole hypervisor ecosystem could weaken as the focus on software-defined data center moves away from the hypervisor and to the application.”

Developer love

One critical factor in this equation is that Docker is capturing the hearts and minds of software developers, who appreciate its speed and simplicity. Containers also give developers more control over the application execution environment, which fuels the burgeoning DevOps movement. “Containers and their management systems are creating glue between developers and operators,” they write.

The big question is whether enterprises will go along. Virtualization technology is now a decade old, and many enterprises have already made substantial investments in VMware and other products. But containers have unique appeal.

For one thing, they are application- rather than machine-centric and applications are ultimately what IT delivers. Another appeal is that applications built on containers can run almost anywhere the container can.

“The Docker tagline of ‘Build, Ship and Run Any App, Anywhere’ is becoming a reality for containerized applications, and for the enterprise this is the ultimate lock-in killer,” Chambers and Miniman write. “Enterprises might wonder: Why bother with all that VM stuff when what you really want to do is applications?”

Infrastructure-as-a-service providers are on the horns of a dilemma. Containers provide a better delivery vehicle for applications, which is what users ultimately buy, but many of these companies are heavily invested in virtual machine-based platforms. The flexibility and portability of containers also makes it easier for customers to switch service providers, which limits visibility.

Ultimately, however, customers will rule the day, and “2015 is likely to see an exponential take-up in containers across the industry compared to 2014,” the analysts predict. Containers will bring about a change to enterprises in areas like skills, operations and workflows. That may be disruptive in the short-term, but the long-term promise of containers is “to remove processes, infrastructure complexity, cloud lock-in and speed up innovation.”