It is first real test for govt’s 'tough on terror' posture

NEW DELHI: The Gurdaspur fidayeen attack poses the first major political challenge to the Modi government’s tough-on-terror posture, particularly if the trail leads to anti-India jihadi groups that operate from Pakistan in cahoots with its military and intelligence wings.
The Punjab attacks broke the lull in terrorist strikes outside Jammu and Kashmir since the NDA assumed office and will test the government’s claim that terrorism or trans-border aggression will invite prompt and exemplary retaliation.
The relative downturn in terrorism was in part attributed to unambiguous and disproportionate reprisals to Pakistan’s violation of ceasefire along the Line of Control and the international border in Jammu and Kashmir.
Heavy shelling of Pakistani positions was a more straightforward matter as the aggressor was easily identified. Tracking terrorists with possible cross-border links is harder to establish given Pakistan’s record in the art of denial despite a history of sponsoring terrorism against India.
Delaying or suspending proposed talks with Pakistan will be a standard response, one that will raise a yawn in Islamabad. If investigations do indeed point due west, lack of convincing action can seriously erode the government’s credentials on terrorism.
Domestically, the Modi government needs to counter jibes from political rivals that it is underperforming on many fronts as election-time promise of “acche din” is proving hard to fulfill. The successful operations against Naga militants in Myanmar has set the bar high, and the government will find itself under pressure to be decisive.
The challenge is significant, not the least because Punjab was the setting. Though Monday’s strikes had jihadi markings, the spectre of a revival of Khalistani activity lurks in the background. In fact, the threats are linked as both Lashkar and Babbar Khalsa are sheltered and patronized by Pakistan.
The Gurdaspur incident is intended to convey the determination of terrorists and India’s vulnerability, even in a state that has been removed from such violence for several years now. Not responding to the taunt may not be an option for the Modi government.
Congress has never let BJP forget the Kandahar hostage swap and the current crop of saffron leaders, several of who were ministers in the Vajpayee government, would keenly remember how much mishandling of the IC814 hijack cost the BJP.
India’s success in ensuring a focus on terrorism at the recent meeting between Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif at Ufa will now be put to a stern test. The attacks, though deadly, are not on a scale that warrants cross-border retaliation. But the military sponsors of anti-India jihadi groups in Pakistan may well be testing the new government’s resolve.
If the government does not move much beyond set piece responses in case a Pakistani hand is established, it can convince the military and a large section of public opinion in Pakistan that not much has changed: there is no serious price to be paid for deaths of Indian civilians and unformed personnel in a terror attack.
Former US ambassador to India Robert Blackwill and academic Stephen Cohen at a seminar in February had offered the view that Pakistan will find Modi a different kettle of fish to deal with. Both felt that Modi was more likely to use military force than his predecessors if a terrorist attack was traced to Pakistan. The task of framing a response that does not go so far but is nonetheless effective is even more demanding.