Despite Modi-Sharif meeting at COP21, India-Pakistan talks will be non-starter if not thought out clearly

By Seema Guha

Much is being read into the short meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Pakistan counterpart Nawaz Sharif in Paris. The brief meeting led to speculations about a more structured dialogue later. But the Ministry of Foreign Affairs were at pains to describe the meeting as one-off unplanned tête-à-tête. The point however is that the two leaders can meet or direct their officials to talk, but unless Modi has a clearly charted-out direction for India’s Pakistan policy, nothing can move forward.

Sharif fired the first salvo, ahead of the Paris climate change meet, by saying he is willing to talk to India without pre-conditions. Both Modi and Sharif are being nudged along to begin peace parleys by the international community. Paris provides an opening to rescue talks that have been hanging in limbo since Modi took office.

Pakistan Policy Must Have Direction

There have been several attempts which has fizzled out. The same thing will happen again unless Modi and his close aides have a clear idea of how they want to deal with Pakistan. That call has not yet been taken. While the prime minister’s foreign policy has generally moved in the right direction in most areas (with the notable exception of Nepal), there seems to be no clear cut policy on Pakistan. So far it has remained both whimsical and directionless. Modi began well, by inviting Nawaz Sharif for his swearing-in last May. But the foreign secretary-level talks that were to follow were called off because the Pakistani High Commissioner in India, met with the leaders of the Hurriyat Conference.

Delhi insisted that no talks were possible if the Kashmiri separatist groups were consulted. Not only were the talks cancelled but the separatists who were losing ground in the Kashmir Valley, suddenly found themselves at the centre of an India-Pakistan spat. This gave the Hurriyat more importance than they deserved and a fresh lease of political life. The Kashmiri separatists were not going to decide the outcome of the talks, so what was all the noise about?

PM becoming a prisoner of his party’s fiery rhetoric on Pakistan

Drawing the red line over the Hurriyat was possibly an attempt to make a break from the past. In an effort perhaps to be different from the Manmohan Singh regime — which the BJP criticised as weak-kneed on Pakistan — New Delhi proceeded to change the rules of engagement. It may have pleased the hard-liners within the BJP to dictate terms to Pakistan, but this seemed more of a knee jerk reaction, considering the previous NDA government with Atal Bihari Vajpayee at the helm, had decided to overlook it as an issue of no consequence.

It is now up to the Prime Minister to decide what he wants to do about Pakistan. Admitted that Pakistan, more so its military and its spy agency the ISI has been using terror groups to inflict a thousand cuts on India. That is not acceptable. At the same time continuing the current narrative of hate is equally unproductive. India and Pakistan share a complex relationship mired in historical baggage of blood and gore. The task will not be easy, but a start must be made. Modi, with the stature he enjoys, is best placed to change the India-Pakistan narrative and be remembered as a statesman.

Can Modi afford to ignore Pakistan as many of his hardline supporters want him to? Not if India wants to project itself on the international stage as a rising player in world affairs. Any nation hoping to make a mark in the high table of international diplomacy must first be in a position to manage its own neighbourhood. This means it also has to live in peace with its neighbours. India and Pakistan have been unable to do so since Independence in 1947. The prime minister himself realises he cannot, considering he has made several attempts to engage with Pakistan.

Knowing there is too much public scrutiny and noise on both sides of the border when it comes to India and Pakistan talks, Track II channels have been left open. Humanitarian issues are also progressing well. Recently Geeta, the young Indian woman in Pakistan, has come home and foreign minister Sushma Swaraj is taking a personal interest in getting a Pakistani boy back home to his family. The India-Pakistan cricket series has already been okayed by Islamabad. It is up to India now to take a decision.

All eyes are now on whether New Delhi accepts Islamabad’s invitation to Swaraj for a Heart of Asia group meeting in Islamabad in December. The meeting to discuss stabilising Afghanistan — started by Afghanistan and Turkey in November 2011 — provides a platform to discuss regional issues and, to face common threats, encourage security, political and economic cooperation among Afghanistan, its neighbours and regional partners. Swaraj travelling to Pakistan would be a real ice-breaker.

However none of this will be meaningful unless Modi has a clear idea of the road ahead with Pakistan.