BJP feels Sena may provoke but will not leave the coalition

NEW DELHI: The BJP's already-frayed relations with its oldest ally, the Shiv Sena, are deteriorating, setting the stage for a longish, ugly divorce saga, even as the latter ups the ante and looks to embarrass its alienated partner at every turn.
The Shiv Sena will just not play second fiddle in the coalition government in Maharashtra. The assessment in BJP circles is that the Sena might lash out but not leave the coalition government in Maharashtra, because the party has little to gain by quitting ministerial positions to become the assembly’s leader of the opposition.
It is more likely, feel BJP leaders, that the Sena will continue to provoke and challenge chief minister Devendra Fadnavis's authority, and will continue to opportunistically ally with other parties in Parliament, like it did on the land acquisition bill.
The BJP's dilemma is that it does not want to be the one to initiate a break. One fewer ally does not help its cause and the party sees no merit in becoming dependent on the Nationalist Congress Party, a group that’s seen to be singularly transactional about its politics.
The challenge for the Maharashtra government is in acting against Shiv Sainiks, who were feted as heroes by Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, for throwing black paint on Sudheendra Kulkarni, a former aide of L K Advani.
That will not be easy to do, even though Fadnavis had categorically said the attack on Kulkarni has lowered Mumbai's prestige. Kulkarni was attacked by Shiv Sainiks for organizing a book release function for former Pakistan foreign minister Khurshid Mehmud Kasuri.
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The Sena has thrown down the gauntlet, but Fadnavis and the BJP are unlikely to respond in a hurry as that might precipitate a crisis at a time when the saffron party is in the midst of crucial elections in Bihar.
The BJP can allow the Sena to carry on with its intimidation only at the risk of its government in Maharashtra losing credibility. If that happens, it can impact efforts to woo domestic and foreign investment.
The BJP's relations with the Sena have had their tense moments, most famously when the late Balasaheb Thackeray was briefly arrested and let off on bail in 2000 over a case of alleged inflammatory writing. The alliance survived that moment until it broke before the 2014 assembly elections.
The BJP’s leaders have pointed out that even if the Sena had accepted the final offer of seats for the assembly polls, it would have had its chief minister. Now, it must put up with Fadnavis while also having to contend with the breakaway MNS led by Raj Thackeray.
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