Levin Report

Russian Stocks Surge as Comrade Trump Eases Relations with Vlad

Talk of lifting sanctions tend to have that effect.
Image may contain Vladimir Putin Tie Accessories Accessory Suit Coat Clothing Overcoat Apparel Human and Person
By Alexei Druzhinin/TASS/Getty Images.

You may have heard that some people are concerned about Donald Trump being, at best, enamored with Russian president Vladimir Putin and, at worst, Putin’s puppet. Wherever the truth may lie, the announcement from the U.S. Treasury today that it will “allow for some companies to do limited business with Russia’s Federal Security Service” (i.e., a modification of Russian sanctions put in place by the Obama administration) can only do wonders for the transatlantic bromance. Oh, and the Russian stock market liked it, too! Per Marketwatch:

The Russian ruble and its stock market jumped on Thursday after media reports that the Treasury Department would ease sanctions on Russia's intelligence agency. The dollar fell more than 2% against the ruble after the initial reports, but soon recovered some of that decline after President Donald Trump’s press secretary Sean Spicer denied that sanctions had been lifted. Still, the greenback was off 1.5% at 59.18 rubles, on track for its second-worst daily performance of the year. Russian stocks also soared on the news. The iShares MSCI Russian Capped ETF rose 1% to $34.22. Trump has repeatedly praised Russian President Vladimir Putin while also criticizing the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Russia E.T.F.s have been on a tear since Trump’s election in November, given his long history of comments about easing economic sanctions on Russia and the large number of Russia-affiliated advisers in his orbit. Vaneck Vectors Russia E.T.F. is up more than 15 percent since Election Day, while Direxion’s Daily Russia Bull & Bear 3x Shares fund is up about 60 percent. iShares MSCI Russia Capped jumped about 50 percent on November 9 alone.

Another billionaire tires of Trump

In October 2015, billionaire real-estate investor Sam Zell told CNBC that while Donny Trump was a “very accomplished person,” he doubted the guy had “the temperament and the personality to be the president of the United States.” A week after Trump was elected, Zell, like so many business leaders, shrugged off the fact that a 70-year-old man with the temperament of a person one-tenth that age is was now in charge of the country—thanks in no small part to the alleged positive influence he would have on the economy. Now, following the events of the past weekend, Zell’s not feeling super great about the fellow real-estate billionaire being in power.

“The United States has been the leader in the world for 200 years because it’s had a very aggressive immigration policy,” Zell told attendees of annual Tiger 21 conference on Thursday, according to Bloomberg. “I think that this current period of anti-immigration is very dangerous to the future of our country.”

You were saying?

One of the ways Trump got elected, in addition to appealing to his base by promising to keep immigrants out of the country, was by vowing to enact big, terrific tax reform to boost growth and create jobs. The corporate-tax rate was going to go from 35 percent to 15 percent, Trump promised the business community. Sadly for those people, it appears building a fence around America and gutting the Affordable Care Act will take precedence. Per CNBC:

House Speaker Paul Ryan said Thursday that Republican lawmakers will try to push through tax reform and infrastructure bills—two key policies for investors—in the spring after focusing on health care. “It's just the way the budget works that we won't be able to get the ability to write our tax reform bill until our spring budget passes, and then we write that through the summer,” Ryan said.

Let’s hope for Ryan’s sake that, this time, he won’t be disappointed.

Dan Loeb expects good times for hedge funds under Trump

“While America may or may not be made great again, there is no question that the rules are literally being rewritten,” the Third Point founder wrote in a letter to clients obtained by Reuters. “We do not plan to trade the tweets but we expect an increasing number of real and, even better, fake dislocations to create some extremely rewarding investing opportunities.”

This is how you Make America Great Again

In between banning people from entering the country, ripping into Australia (that’s right, Australia), and threatening to punish companies that manufacture outside the U.S., Donald Trump took some time today to attend the annual National Prayer Breakfast, following the tradition started by President Dwight Eisenhower. Here’s a real excerpt of his remarks:

“We had tremendous success on The Apprentice, and when I ran for president, I had to leave the show. That’s when I knew for sure I was doing it. And they hired a big, big movie star, Arnold Schwarzenegger, to take my place, and we know how that turned out. The ratings went right down the tubes. It’s been a total disaster, and [executive producer] Mark [Burnett] will never, ever bet against Trump again, and I just want to pray for Arnold if we can—for those ratings.”

That actually happened.

Who could have predicted this?

Despite campaigning on the claim that he’s a business genius, management experts say a first-year M.B.A. student could do a better job running the West Wing than Donald Trump. Here’s the Times:

The unanimous verdict: Thus far, the Trump administration is a textbook case of how not to run a complex organization like the executive branch.

“This is so basic, it’s covered in the introduction to the M.B.A. program that all our students take,” said Lindred Greer, an assistant professor of organizational behavior at the Stanford Graduate School of Business. By all outward indications, Mr. Trump “desperately needs to take the course,” she said.

Jeffrey Pfeffer, professor of organizational behavior at Stanford and the author of “Power: Why Some People Have It and Others Don’t,” said Mr. Trump’s executive actions as president “are so far from any responsible management approach” that they all but defy analysis.

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Elsewhere!

The White House dumps Trump’s biggest fan (V.F. Hive)

Trump berates Australia, threatens Mexico in series of bizarre calls (but “don’t worry about it,” he says) (V.F. Hive)

Deutsche Bank is sorry for its long list of f*ck-ups, like allowing billions of dollars to be laundered out of Russia (Dealbook)

“Private-equity executive Feinberg in talks to join Trump administration” (Reuters)

Goldman Sachs president turned Trump econ guy Gary Cohn nixes Larry Kudlow from Council of Economic Advisers (Politico)

Matt Levine: “Stability Is Good for Business. Trump’s Whims Threaten It” (Bloomberg)

Former Treasury secretary Larry Summers thinks C.E.O.s should stand up to Trump (Harvard Business Review)

Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-NC) accuses the Federal Reserve of “unfairly penaliz[ing] the American financial system.” (FT Alphaville)

Avocado advocates have bought ad time during Sunday’s Super Bowl (CNBC)