OK, Google: Will Pixel be a hit?

SAN FRANCISCO — When Google's new smartphone goes on sale this week, no one is expecting an iPhone-like hit — at least not right away.

Despite a splashy launch and a "Made by Google" marketing campaign, not to mention some positive reviews, the Pixel is still taking on the likes of the wildly popular iPhone. Samsung's recent spate of troubles may boost Pixel sales with defecting Note and Galaxy owners, but not enough to make a serious dent in the high-end smartphone market, analysts say.

And, say analysts, the new smartphone's price tag — the Pixel comes at an iPhone price, starting at $649 — and lack of availability with major carriers other than Verizon could undermine its debut.

"I'm sure the Pixel will get a deeper look from users, especially those that are Google and Android loyalists. But I would not expect Pixel to gain significant market share as it's still a very competitive market," Gartner analyst Brian Blau said.

Google won't say how many Pixel smartphones it has produced or how many it projects it will sell. An early supply chain-based estimate from Digitimes, a Taiwanese trade publication, suggests Google could ship from 3 million to 4 million Pixel phones in the second half of 2016. Apple sells that many iPhones in a week.

"People are reporting today that there are significant wait times for phones or the phone is out of stock completely. It's really difficult to understand what that implies in terms of the units sold simply because we don't have a sense of what the initial run was," said CFRA analyst Scott Kessler.

In an email, Google said: "We're thrilled to see the excitement for our new Pixel phones and frankly pre-order demand has exceeded our expectations. We're working to restock our inventory as soon as possible."

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Google is moving aggressively into designing and selling its own hardware instead of mostly supplying its Android software to other companies such as Samsung and LG Electronics. With Pixel, Android is powering the first line of phones designed in-house by Google, giving the Internet giant control over the software and the hardware so it can showcase what it's capable of — namely, Google Assistant.

Pixel is the first smartphone with the digital helper that responds to people's requests for information conversationally. Pixel and Google's new speaker device, Home, are preparing "for the next generation of device interaction and engagement as we transition to a hands-free world," said James Cakmak, analyst with Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co.

Still, BCG Partners analyst Colin Gillis says Pixel is a blip for Google investors.

"This is a sign that Google is serious about commanding hardware and software in its initial foray into its own branded device. It's not a core thesis to invest in Google now, but it might become more meaningful down the road," Gillis said.

Shares of Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) hit a high Wednesday of $829.81, part of an upswing in tech stocks following surprisingly strong Netflix earnings.

Getting into manufacturing is risky for Google. Its previous hardware attempts have had limited distribution and have racked up some famous flops, such as its Internet-connected headgear Glass and its music- and video-streaming device Nexus Q. Google's previous generation of Nexus smartphones never posed a significant threat to Apple or Samsung.

And Google's launch strategy has raised eyebrows. The phones are already on back order and will be available through Verizon as the exclusive U.S. carrier, as well as at Best Buy, via Google’s Project Fi or Google’s Play Store. You can buy an unlocked version that will work with any of the other major U.S. carriers. Verizon says the Pixel XL 128 GB model has sold out and won’t be in stores on Thursday.

"It's basically not going to be something that the vast majority of potential phone buyers even consider, because it won't be in the store when they're debating a purchase if they're on AT&T, Sprint or T-Mobile," Jan Dawson, chief analyst with Jackdaw Research, said.

Forrester Research analyst Thomas Husson said he does not have high expectations for Pixel sales at the moment. He noted that Google does not have a sterling track record of selling devices to consumers. Even if consumers flee Samsung, they aren't necessarily going to run into Google's arms, Husson said.

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Four out of 10 Samsung customers say they won't buy another phone from Samsung, according to Branding Brand, a mobile e-commerce platform. Of those switching from Samsung phones, 8% say they plan to buy a Google Pixel, while 30% said they would choose an iPhone and 62% said they would go with another Android phone.

"Google needs to fix its carrier deals and its customer support and to massively train sales people to be successful with Pixel devices," Husson said.

CHECKING THE MAIL

Yan-David Erlich, founder and CEO of a start-up called Parsable, is one of Pixel's boosters. He said he's so excited to get his new phone that he keeps checking his order to see if it will ship sooner than expected.

A former Google employee who builds software for a living, Erlich carries an iPhone 7 Plus and a Nexus 6P. If the Pixel lives up to its billing, Erlich said, he hopes to make it his primary phone.

"It shows promise of being a really amazing device," he said. "But I haven't played with it yet."

Jordan Hall, a senior application developer from Staffordshire in the United Kingdom, also owns a Nexus 6P. Hall said he has no plans in the immediate future to switch to the Pixel.

"I feel, given the style, design and price point of the Pixel, that Google is attempting to target iPhone users and market to that audience more directly. To my knowledge, the Google Pixel does not seem to boast any specific hardware features that would be of benefit to anyone already with a relatively new smartphone," he wrote in an email. "The main improvements hardware-wise appear to be simply improved processing speed and graphical capabilities (screen/GPU), which is common to each new generation of smartphone."

Hall said he does not think he'll be missing out.

"Since Google has claimed they will be supporting the Nexus 6P with system updates up until September 2017, I will not be looking to upgrade until at least that point," he said. "Any features that Google make 'exclusive' to the Google Pixel phone, such as the Google Assistant, will likely be made available to other smartphones."