I've noticed an image travelling around whenever we talk about game streaming, whether it's with Project xCloud, Google Stadia, or whatever unnamed services we have yet to see. You see it in presentations, and it was the main way that Microsoft was showing off Project xCloud at its showcase at E3: a full controller with a stand attached to it, playing a AAA game on a phone. We see this a lot because it creates some dissonance: look at this! It seems to say. Halo on a phone, who would have thought? You see similar images floating around with a tablet or maybe a laptop in place of the phone, all of which seem to be making the same point: streaming lets you play the games you want wherever you are.
I'm not sure this is the point that streaming proponents should be making.
The problem here is that this just doesn't seem like a good value proposition for streaming here in 2019. Attaching a full controller to a tiny screen to play a AAA game just isn't a very good way of playing AAA games, on any level. There's a reason people play mobile games on mobile devices, and it's not just because of technology. Mobile games are geared towards playing on the go: you see this even with Nintendo's AAA Switch titles like Super Mario Odyssey and The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, both of which are carefully engineered to be as functional in short play sessions as they are in long ones. Most AAA games are just going to be unpleasant to play like that, even if you don't consider that this scenario likely involves using a mobile connection that may be far short of ideal. Even with a stable wi-fi connection, you still wouldn't be playing the ideal version of the game.
This makes sense for Microsoft, because it's not all that eager to show off the ability to play games on the couch without an Xbox when it's still pretty concerned with selling you an Xbox, and would rather show you how xCloud can enhance that experience. It makes less sense for Stadia, however, or for anyone else that's looking to move into the gaming market on the backs of their data centers.
When streaming starts up in earnest, some players like me will likely be logging on to Stadia on their phones to go visit Xur in Destiny 2 on the road, or things like that. Some people will no doubt be excited to play Assassin's Creed on a laptop. But that's not the main market here. The main market for streaming in the next few years will be people playing on their TVs like they're used to doing, just without local computing.
I've heard a lot of people wonder who, exactly, wants to play AAA games but doesn't want to buy a console, and I feel like these conversations are missing a huge part of the marketplace. I know a ton of people who like games and have played games in the past, but aren't at a place in their lives where they can justify either the economic or psychological investment of buying a full console. It becomes a major stumbling block and barrier to entry: my friend who loved Fallout 3 might easily be persuaded to try out Fallout 4, but they might not ever get themselves to the place where they're going to actually make the leap and buy a piece of hardware to put under their TV.
Streaming removes that barrier to entry for a huge portion of what you might consider lapsed console gamers--seems like a niche group, but it encompasses the majority of people I know around my age, particularly men. These aren't people who I imagine are going to spend a lot of time playing AAA games on their phones, for all those earlier reasons. But these are definitely people that would be willing to pay $60 to check out what their favorite franchises are up to, or to hop on the bandwagon when something like Red Dead Redemption 2 creates a cultural moment. They like games, but just aren't going to make the leap towards buying a console.
This is streaming's market, and I don't think that any marketing campaigns geared towards the idea that you can play Halo on your phone are going to be particularly successful. What will be successful will be to sell to people who remember playing Halo in college and might want to hop back on their couch and try it again. If streaming is going to actually make an impact in its early days, it's obviously not going to do it with people who already own consoles.
The most interesting part of this fight will happen in 2020, when Microsoft and Sony pull out new consoles. Enthusiasts like myself will buy them, and launch sales will be strong. But what happens in 2021, when people are deciding between putting up for new hardware and just buying games on a streaming service? If the streaming services are in a place where they can provide genuine competition at that point, we might see console manufacturers having a harder time justifying the local expense. If it's not, we'll kick the can again.
