What the Dow Means and How It Is Calculated

Investors may own a handful of stocks within their investment portfolio in which they track each stock's individual performance. However, the performance of a small portfolio is not indicative of the overall market. Investors also need information about market sentiment, which is where a stock index can be helpful. 

An index can provide a measurable and traceable number that represents the overall market, a selected group of stocks, or a sector. A stock index can also serve as a benchmark for investment comparisons. For example, let's say your individual portfolio of stocks (or your mutual fund) returned 15%, but the market index returned 20% during the same period. As a result, your portfolio's performance (or your fund manager's performance) would be lagging behind the market.

What Is the Dow? 

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is an indicator of how 30 large, U.S.-listed companies have traded during a standard trading session.

A stock market index is a mathematical construct that provides a single number to measure the overall stock market (or a selected portion of it). The index is calculated by tracking prices of selected stocks (e.g., the top 30, as measured by prices of the largest companies, or top 50 oil-sector stocks) and based on pre-defined weighted average criteria, such as price-weighted, market-cap weighted, etc.

The Calculation Behind the Dow 

To better understand how the Dow changes value, let's start at its beginnings. When Dow Jones & Co. first introduced the index in the 1890s, it was a simple average of the prices of all constituents. For example, let's say there were 12 stocks in the Dow index; in that instance, the Dow's value would have been calculated by simply taking the sum of the closing prices of all 12 stocks and dividing it by 12 (the number of companies or constituents of the Dow index). Hence, the Dow started as a simple price average index.

$\begin{aligned} &\text{DJIA Index Value} = \frac{\sum_{i=0}^n{P_i}}{n} \\ &\textbf{where:}\\ &P_i = \text{The price of the } i^{th} \text{ stock}\\ &n = \text{The number of stocks in the index} \end{aligned}$​DJIA Index Value=n∑i=0n​Pi​​where:Pi​=The price of the ith stockn=The number of stocks in the index​

To explain the concept better with other scenarios and twists, let's build our own simple hypothetical index along the lines of the Dow.

To keep it simple, assume that there is a stock market in a country that has only two stocks trading (Ally Inc. and Belly Inc.—A & B). How do we measure the performance of this overall stock market on a daily basis, as the stock prices are changing each moment and with every price tick? Instead of tracking each stock separately, it would be much easier to get and track a single number representing the overall market constituting both stocks. The changes in that single number (let's call it the AB index) will reflect how the overall market is performing.

Let's assume that the exchange constructs a mathematical number represented by AB Index, which is being measured on the performance of the two stocks (A and B). Assume that stock A is trading at $20 per share and stock B is trading at $80 per share on day 1.

Applying the initial concept of Dow to our hypothetical example of AB index:

[1] At the start, AB index =

$\begin{aligned} \frac{\sum_{i=0}^n{P_i}}{n} &= \frac{\left(\$20 + \$80 \right ) }{2}\\ &=50 \end{aligned}$n∑i=0n​Pi​​​=2($20+$80)​=50​

Dow Calculation on Day 2

Now suppose the next day, the price of A moves up from $20 to $25 and that of B moves down from $80 to $75.

[2] The new AB index =

$\begin{aligned} \frac{\sum_{i=0}^n{P_i}}{n} &= \frac{\left(\$25 + \$75 \right ) }{2}\\ &=50 \end{aligned}$n∑i=0n​Pi​​​=2($25+$75)​=50​

This means the positive price movement in one stock has canceled the equal value but the negative price movement of another stock. Therefore, the index value remains unchanged.

Calculation on Day 3

Suppose on the third day, stock A moves to $30, while stock B moves to $85.

[3] The new AB index =

$\begin{aligned} \frac{\sum_{i=0}^n{P_i}}{n} &= \frac{\left(\$30 + \$85 \right ) }{2}\\ &=57.5 \end{aligned}$n∑i=0n​Pi​​​=2($30+$85)​=57.5​

In the case of (2), the net sum price change was 0 (stock A had +5 change, while stock B has -5 change, making the net sum change zero).

In the case of (3), the net sum price change was 15 (+5 for stock A [25 to 30] while +10 for stock B [75 to 85]). This net price sum change of 15 divided by n=2 gives the change as +7.5, taking the new changed index value on day three at 57.5.

Even though stock A had a higher percentage price change of 20% ($30 from $25), and stock B had a lower percentage change of 13.33% ($85 from $75), the impact of stock B's $10 change contributed to a bigger change in the overall index value. This indicates that price-weighted indices (like Dow Jones and Nikkei 225) depend on the absolute values of prices rather than relative percentage changes. This has also been one of the criticizing factors of price-weighted indexes, as they don't take into account the industry size or market capitalization value of the constituents.

Dow Calculation on Day 4

Now assume that another company C lists on the stock exchange at the price of $10 per share on the fourth day. AB index wants to expand and increase the number of constituents from two to three, to include the newly listed C company stock in addition to the existing A and B stocks.

From the perspective of the AB index, a new stock's coming onboard should not lead to a sudden jump or drop in its value. If it continues with its usual formula, then:

[4—Incorrect] The new AB index =

$\begin{aligned} \frac{\sum_{i=0}^n{P_i}}{n} &= \frac{\left(\$30 + \$85 + \$10 \right ) }{3}\\ &=41.67 \end{aligned}$n∑i=0n​Pi​​​=3($30+$85+$10)​=41.67​

This is a sudden dip in index value from the previous 57.5 to 41.67, just because a new constituent is getting added to it. Assuming that stocks A and B maintain their earlier day prices of $30 and $85. This would not be a very useful reflection of the overall health of the market.

To overcome this calculation anomaly problem, the concept of a divisor is introduced.

The divisor allows the index values to maintain uniformity and continuity, without sudden high-value fluctuations. The basic concept of a divisor is as follows. Simply because a new constituent is getting added, this should not justify high-value variations in the index. Hence just before the new constituent is introduced, a new calculated divisor value should be introduced. It should be such that the following condition should hold true:

$\begin{aligned} &\text{Index Value} = \frac{\sum_{i=0}^{n_{old}}{P_i}}{n_{old}}\\ &\;= \frac{\sum_{i=0}^{n_{new}}{P_i}}{n_{new}}\end{aligned}$​Index Value=nold​∑i=0nold​​Pi​​=nnew​∑i=0nnew​​Pi​​​,

That is, assuming the stock prices from the old index are held constant, the addition of a new stock price should not affect the index.

$\begin{aligned} &\text{New Index Value} = \frac{\sum_{i=0}^{n_{new}}{P_i}}{D} \\ &\textbf{where:}\\ &P_i = \text{The price of the } i^{th} \text{ stock}\\ &n_{new} = \text{The updated number of stocks in the index}\\ &D = \frac{\sum_{i=0}^{n_{new}}{P_i}}{\text{The previous index value}} \end{aligned}$​New Index Value=D∑i=0nnew​​Pi​​where:Pi​=The price of the ith stocknnew​=The updated number of stocks in the indexD=The previous index value∑i=0nnew​​Pi​​​

New Price summation = $125 (3 stocks)

Last known good value of index = 57.5 (based on 2 stocks), which leads to a divisor of 125/57.5 = 2.1739

This new value becomes the new divisor of the AB index.

So on the day when stock C is included in the AB index, its correct (and continuous value) becomes:

[4—Correct] The new AB index =

$\begin{aligned} &\frac{\sum_{i=0}^{n_{new}}{P_i}}{D}\\ &=\frac{\$30+\$85+\$10}{2.1739} = 57.5 \end{aligned}$​D∑i=0nnew​​Pi​​=2.1739$30+$85+$10​=57.5​

This same value on the fourth day makes sense because we are assuming that the stock prices of A and B have not changed compared to the third day, and just because the new, third stock is added, this should not lead to any variations.

Calculation on Day 5

On the fifth day, suppose the prices of stocks A, B, and C are respectively $32, $90, and $9, then:

[5] The new AB index =

$\begin{aligned} &\frac{\sum_{i=0}^{n_{new}}{P_i}}{D}\\ &=\frac{\$32+\$90+\$9}{2.1739} = 60.26 \end{aligned}$​D∑i=0nnew​​Pi​​=2.1739$32+$90+$9​=60.26​

Going forward, this new value of 2.1739 would continue to be the divisor (instead of the whole number of constituents). It will change only in the case of new constituents getting added (or deleted) or any corporate actions taking place in the constituents (example below).

Dow Calculation on Day 6

Let's continue further with calculation variations. Suppose that stock B takes a corporate action that changes the stock's price without changing the company valuation. Say it is trading at $90, and the company undertakes a 3-for-1 stock split, tripling the number of available shares and reducing the price by a factor of three, i.e., from $90 to $30.

In essence, the company has not created (or reduced) any of its valuations because of this stock-split corporate action. This is justified by the number of shares tripling and the price coming down to a third of the original. However, our index is solely price-weighted and does not account for share volume change. Taking the new $30 price into calculation will lead to another significant variation as follows:

[6—Incorrect] The new AB index =

$\frac{\$32+\$30+\$9}{2.1739} = 32.66$2.1739$32+$30+$9​=32.66

This is way below the earlier index value of 60.26 (at step 5).

Here again, the divisor needs to change to accommodate for this change, using the same condition to hold true:

$\begin{aligned} &\text{Index Value} = \frac{\sum_{i=0}^{n_{old}}{P_i}}{n_{old}}\\ &\;= \frac{\sum_{i=0}^{n_{new}}{P_i}}{n_{new}}\\ \end{aligned}$​Index Value=nold​∑i=0nold​​Pi​​=nnew​∑i=0nnew​​Pi​​​

New Price summation = $71 (3 stocks).

Last known good value of index = 60.26 (step 5 above), which leads to n-new or divisor value = 71/60.26 = 1.17822.

Using this new divisor value:

[6—Correct] The new AB index:

$\frac{\$32+\$30+\$9}{1.17822} = 60.26$1.17822$32+$30+$9​=60.26

Assuming that stocks A and C maintain their earlier day prices of $32 and $9.

Arriving at the same previous day value validates the correctness of our calculations. This new 1.17822 will become the new divisor going forward. The same calculation would apply to any corporate action affecting the stock price of any of the constituents.

One Last Example

Suppose stock A is delisted and needs to be removed from the AB index, leaving only stocks B and C.

[7]

$\begin{aligned} &\text{New price summation} = \$30 + \$9 = \$39\\ &\text{Previous index value} = 60.26\\ &\text{New} D = 39 \div 60.26 = 0.64719\\ &\text{New index value} = 39 \div 0.64719 = 60.26 \end{aligned}$​New price summation=$30+$9=$39Previous index value=60.26NewD=39÷60.26=0.64719New index value=39÷0.64719=60.26​

Divisor Value

Dow calculations and value changes work in a similar way. The above cases cover many possible scenarios for changes for price-weighted indexes like the Dow or the Nikkei. The Dow divisor is adjusted to ensure events such as stock splits don't change the numerical value of the DJIA. Over the years, the Dow divisor has been modified to keep pace with changing market conditions.

The divisor for DJIA is 0.15172752595384 as of January 2022. However, each Dow Jones index has a divisor of its own, such as the Dow Jones 15 Utilities (1.27924906167720) and Dow Jones 20 Transport (0.16343894576034).

The divisor value has its own significance. For every $ change in the price of underlying constituent stocks, the index value moves by an inverse value. For example, if the stock price of VISA increases by $10, then it will lead to a 10 x (1 ÷ 0.15172752595384) = 65.907619182 change in the value of DJIA.

Until there is any change in the number of constituents or any corporate actions affecting the prices, the existing divisor value will hold.

Assessing the Dow Jones Methodology

No mathematical model is perfect—each comes with its merits and demerits. Price weighting with regular divisor adjustments does enable the Dow to reflect the market sentiments at a broader level, but it does come with a few criticisms. Sudden price increments or reductions in individual stocks can lead to big jumps or drops in DJIA. For a real-life example, an AIG stock price dip from around $292 to $45 within a month’s time led to a fall of almost 3,000 points in the Dow in 2008.

Certain corporate actions, like dividend going ex (i.e., becoming an ex-dividend, wherein the dividend goes to the seller rather than to the buyer), can lead to a sudden drop in DJIA on the ex-date. High correlation among multiple constituents also led to higher price swings in the index. As illustrated above, this index calculation may get complicated on adjustments and divisor calculations.

Despite being one of the most widely recognized and most followed, critics of the price-weighted DJIA index advocate using float-adjusted market-value weighted S&P 500 or the Wilshire 5000 index, although they too come with their own mathematical dependencies.

The Bottom Line

The Dow Jones index has been around since 1896, despite all of its known challenges and mathematical dependencies, the DJIA remains the most followed and recognized index globally. Investors and traders looking at using DJIA as the benchmark should consider the mathematical dependencies. Additionally, indices based on other methodologies should also consider efficient index-based investments.