The burger giants are back.
For the first time in years, the Big Three fast-food burger chains — McDonald’s, Burger King and Wendy’s — are all on track to post same-store sales growth of at least 3 percent this quarter. What’s more, that growth is coming at the expense of other big chains like Denny’s, IHOP and Cracker Barrel.
“It’s the return of the burger joints,” said Nomura restaurant analyst, Mark Kalinowski, who has been tracking sales trends in October and November.
While McDonald’s chief executive, Steve Easterbrook, told investors earlier this month that the breakfast menu is boosting sales in the fourth quarter, he warned “don’t read too much into that.”
Kalinowski and others disagree.
He is forecasting a 3 percent bump in same-store sales for McDonald’s — up from 0.9 percent in the third quarter — as demand for its all-day breakfast menu soars.
The much-maligned three are also competing better on price. “The fast food restaurants are drawing people away from fast-casual restaurants by shifting their pricing downwards,” said Richard Adams, founder of Franchise Equity Group and a former McDonald’s franchisee.
Burger King is luring customers with its popular chicken fries — reintroduced earlier this year — and with a new promotion, 10 chicken nuggets for $1.49.
Wendy’s 4 for $4 deal, which bundles a junior bacon cheeseburger, four chicken nuggets, small fries and a beverage, is driving customer traffic, while McDonald’s just launched “McPick 2” which includes items for $2: a McDouble, a McChicken, small fries, and mozzarella sticks.
McDonald’s improving fortunes are also eating into growth at other restaurants. Buffalo Wild Wings, Jack in the Box, Papa John’s Pizza, Sonic and Outback Steakhouse, which all posted same-store sales increases of 5 percent or more in the first quarter, will likely grow more slowly this quarter, Kalinowski said.
“McDonald’s was down 2.6 percent in that same quarter, but now that McDonald’s is doing better it’s going to be more difficult for those others to do that much better,” he said.