Assault numbers: What should you believe?

The number was shocking - 20 percent. Wow, that's a lot. But it was the figure from an official study, one that the Obama administration has quoted, so, it's got to be true, doesn't it?

The National Institute of Justice reported in 2007 that 1 in 5 women - 20 percent - who attended a residential college in the last four years has been sexually assaulted. As parents send their daughters off to college over the last few weeks, are they sending them to institutions of higher learning or to hang out with members of Islamic State?

Young female students at risk gets added spotlight not only because it's the start of a school year, but also for two recent developments on separate campuses. The one at Baylor is the most notorious.

Football transfer Sam Ukwuachu, who was at the time not on the team, was convicted on Aug. 21 of sexual assault of a Baylor soccer player. It was the second such conviction surrounding the football team in the last 19 months.

There's two parallel stories here - whether head coach Art Briles knew of Ukwuachu's history while at Boise State, and how Baylor has failed this Jane Doe at almost every level.

The laughable 180-day sentence is not on Baylor, but the joke of the school's initial investigation, and the shoddy treatment, from not removing Ukwuachu from her same class to a reduction in scholarship, is.

Suffice to say, should Jane Doe and her family opt for a civil lawsuit - and it appears they are - someone connected with Baylor is going to be writing a substantial check.

Less egregious, but one that angered Old Dominion University administrators in Virginia, were large banners on bedsheets hanging from the Sigma Nu fraternity house during rush last week: "Rowdy and Fun, Hope Your Baby Girl Is Ready For A Good Time," "Freshman Daughter Drop Off," and "Go Ahead And Drop Mom Off, Too."

What kind of bubbling cauldron of danger are young freshmen girls entering?

"I think statistically college girls are at a higher risk of being the victim of a crime that high school girls, but, of course, that can vary significantly from campus to campus," said Monte Wells, whose youngest daughter, Claire, is a freshman at Texas Tech.

"But my concern level is relatively low. First, I don't think Tech is an especially dangerous campus. Secondly, there are some commonsense safeguards that can be implemented and we (wife Roseann) have tried to make her aware of them."

And, thirdly, the 20 percent claim, as Wells pointed out, turns out to likely be exaggerated. Think about it: If that's true, 900 female students would claim sexual assault at West Texas A&M over the next four years, and 3,200 at Tech. At Texas? 5,000. Come on.

A Washington Post fact checker revealed the report was a Web-based survey of two large anonymous public universities where participants were given a $10 amazon.com card. Hardly reflective of a nation.

A 2014 Bureau of Justice report on sexual assault of all females from ages 18 to 24 is more believable, though not necessarily ironclad. It found the rate of sexual assaults on non-students was 1.2 times higher (7.6 per 1,000) than for students (6.1 per 1,000).

That's 0.6 percent, less than 1 percent, and not 20 percent. That would mean 27 over a four-year period at WT, and 96 at Tech. That's still 27 and 96 too many, but it's not 900 and 3,200, and does not paint a picture of campuses under siege.

And this is telling. For both students and non-students, 80 percent of the victims knew the attacker.

"Maybe it's in the back of my mind a little bit, but it's not something I stay awake at night thinking about," said Denise Simpson, whose youngest daughter, Meredith, is a freshman at Alabama. An older daughter is a senior at Oklahoma.

"Be with people who make good choices. If there's a strange situation, find your way out. I guess we

raised them even in Amarillo to communicate with us if there's an issue or problem.

"You hear about people putting things in drinks, so if she's carrying a water bottle, put a lid on it, don't sit it down. Honestly, it's not something I worry about any more than her driving and getting hit."

Most universities are proactive with safety. Alabama, like many schools, has rides available for any woman who's uncomfortable about walking alone on campus. The University of Texas announced a $1.7 million study of sexual assault on its campus.

I never had daughters, but if I did, given these more believable numbers, my biggest college worry wouldn't be physical safety, but how I'm going to pay for all of this.

Jon Mark Beilue is an AGN Media columnist. He can be reached at jon.beilue@amarillo.com or 806-345-3318. His "Out of the Beilue" video series appears on amarillo.com. Follow him on Twitter: @jonmarkbeilue.