What Exxon Mobil, Chevron say about coming quarters will be key

A huge week of earnings releases — filled with lowlights (Apple and Twitter) and highlights (Facebook and Amazon.com) — finishes up Friday with first-quarter results from oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron.

Wall Street, of course, is not expecting a lot. The price of U.S.-produced crude fell to a 13-year low of less than $27 per barrel in mid-February before rallying back above $46 through Thursday’s close. The jump in crude prices came amid talk of a production freeze among major oil producers and weakness in the U.S. dollar.

The rebound in oil prices, however, is not expected to rescue the energy sector from a massive earnings miss. According to earnings tracker Thomson Reuters, earnings in the energy sector are seen contracting 111% in the first quarter of 2016.

As is often said on Wall Street, it’s all about the guidance, or forward-looking commentary from CEOs.  And investors will be watching to see what the CEOs of both oil companies say about the business outlook for coming quarters and whether the recent stabilization in oil prices is sustainable.

To say the bar is set low for Chevron and Exxon Mobil is an understatement. Analysts forecast a 117.4% drop in earnings for Chevron from a year ago, with a loss of 13 cents a share compared to a gain of 76 cents a year ago.

Expectations for Exxon Mobil are just as gruesome, with analysts expecting profit to plunge more than 72% to 33 cents a share, down from $1.17 a year ago.

Both stocks have rallied in 2016 along with crude, and Wall Street is hoping that trend continues post earnings.