Pre-poll surveys give mixed signals from Bihar: Nitish will win, says one; neck and neck race predicts another

NEW DELHI: Less than a week before Bihar votes in the first phase of assembly elections on October 12, the signals from the state are mixed, according to pre-poll surveys.
While one survey says its neck and neck between the BJP-led NDA and Nitish Kumar-led Grand Alliance, another survey says the Nitish-Lalu combine will win a simple majority in the 243-member assembly.
The India TV-CVoter pre-poll survey projects 119 seats for BJP-led NDA. This is three short of the magic mark of 122. The survey gives 116 seats to the Grand Alliance.
However, a CNN IBN/IBN7-Axis survey says the "Grand Alliance" of the JD(U), RJD and the Congress is set to win simple majority with 46 per cent of he votes and 137 seats.
Here's the big picture that has emerged from the two surveys.
The India TV-CVoter survey
C-Voter said the projections were based on a methodology based on random stratified sample of 9,916 interviews covering all 243 segments in Bihar from the last week of September till the first week of October.
Here are the highlights of the India TV-CVoter survey:
* The BJP-led NDA is projected to win 119 seats with 43 per cent vote share, three short of the magic mark of 122.
* The Grand Alliance will win 116 seats with 41 per cent vote share.
* Eight seats in the 243-member assembly may go to 'Others'
* The biggest issue for the voters: 17.9 per cent said unemployment, 12.7 per cent said power cuts, while 25 per cent said "can't say".
* Which party can solve these problems better: 44.7 per cent opted for NDA while 38.6 per cent favoured the RJD-JD(U)-Congress alliance. Another 16.6 per cent respondents said 'others'.
* In the caste-wise social groupings, 44 per cent Dalits, 41 per cent Mahadalits, 50 per cent MBC (most backward castes), 29 per cent OBC and a whopping 70 per cent upper castes favoured the NDA.
* 28 per cent dalits, 33 per cent Mahadalits, 31 per cent MBC, 59 per cent OBC and 15 per cent upper caste respondents favoured the Grand Alliance.
* A whopping 73.3 per cent said there should be a nationwide ban on sale of beef while 25.9 per cent opposed it.
* 73.3 per cent respondents blamed the rhetoric of politicians to be the reason behind heating up the beef issue, while 17.7 per cent blamed news channels.
The CNN IBN/IBN7-Axis survey
The results of another pre-poll survey released on Thursday, however, paints a different picture.
The CNN IBN/IBN7-Axis predicts a Nitish win in the state.
The survey, conducted between September 3 and October 4, involved over 24,000 respondents and covered all the 38 districts and 243 constituencies of Bihar.
Here are the highlights of the CNN IBN/IBN7-Axis survey:
* The Grand Alliance of the Janata Dal-United (JD-U), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress expected to win 137 seats with 46 per cent vote share.
* The BJP-led coalition will win 95 seats, garnering 38 per cent vote share.
* The BJP projected to win 82 seats. LJP of Ram Vilas Paswan may get only two seats. Former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi's HAM is expected to bag eight seats and the RLSP of Upendra Kushwaha three seats.
* The JD(U) led by Nitish Kumar is expected to win 69 seats, followed by Lalu Prasad's RJD (48 seats) and the Congress (20 seats).
* 33 per cent of Yadavs and 28 per cent of Muslims seemed to be deserting the RJD and the JD(U) in favour of the NDA or others.
* The Grand Alliance was likely to get more votes from the youth (18-35 age group) than the NDA alliance.
* Over 40 per cent feel Nitish Kumar will benefit electorally because of the alliance with Lalu Prasad.
* Development would be the main election issue. Other issues are inflation and "bijli-paani-sadak", ranking second with 13 per cent each.
* As many as 45 per cent of the respondents felt the Nitish government had performed as per expectations while 17 per cent said it exceeded their expectations.
* With reference to areas of failure, 45 per cent said there was no control over corruption during Nitish Kumar's rule.
* Nitish Kumar's development model got a thumbs-up from 52 per cent of the respondents. In contrast, the development model of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the central government got 48 per cent support.
(With inputs from IANS)