Mairs & Power Small Cap Fund 4th Quarter Investor Letter

Commentary on economy and holdings

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Feb 04, 2016
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Investors facing growing uncertainty in the sixth year of a bull market finally saw the long anticipated correction in the third quarter, with a ten-plus percentage point drop unfolding in one tumultuous week in late August. Though the market recovered in Q4, the last day of trading for the year pushed both the Dow and S&P 500 into slightly negative territory before dividends, the first down market since 2008. (The indices’ total returns for Q4 were positive, including dividends).

In 2015, oil prices fell to their lowest level in more than a decade, the dollar continued to strengthen against other currencies, Europe remained weak and economic growth in China slowed. These factors resulted in persistent underperformance in the Industrial,

Energy and Materials sectors. The collapse in oil prices led to a sell off in high yield energy debt, putting fixed income markets on edge. Even in the face of this pressure, the U.S. economy continued its steady improvement with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth inching above two percent. Nominal unemployment fell to near pre-recession levels, buoying consumer confidence and spending which drove solid performance in the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors as well as the Information Technology and Telecom sectors. We exited 2015 with signs of a modest recovery in Europe, unprecedented negative interest rates in several industrialized countries and continuing concerns about the impact of slowing growth in China on the global economy. Late in the year, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) increased rates for the first time in a decade, reversing a six year run of near zero interest rates.

Future Outlook

The New Year has started off badly for the stock market. While the Fed communicated the likelihood of a series of rate increases in 2016, that doesn’t seem quite as likely now given concerns over global economic conditions. The U.S. markets have reflected this uncertainty early this year.

The dividend yield is back above the yield on 10 year treasuries, favoring income stocks as an attractive asset class. Small cap stocks are trading in line with large caps on an earnings basis, essentially erasing the historical premium that faster growing small caps typically have enjoyed. This positions them to potentially perform well relative to large caps as they regain that premium. In another historical perspective, Industrials start working when things look most grim for the sector and well ahead of any evidence of improvement. We don’t pretend to know when that turn will happen but, in our pinion, investors get paid for being patient.

2015 was a year of two markets engaged in a tug-of-war, where consumer-facing companies did well while energy, commodities and export-oriented manufacturing companies struggled. The big question for U.S. investors in 2016 is: Who wins this tug-of-war? Will the pressure felt by the industrial sectors overwhelm the economy and push us into a slowdown or will strong job growth, low interest rates and persistently low oil prices buoy consumer confidence and spending, extending the current cycle? We remain positive, viewing the latter as more likely, with potential upside if some of the current headwinds begin to abate.

Small Cap Fund Performance Review

The Mairs & Power Small Cap Fund rallied in the fourth quarter of the year, gaining 4.75%, ahead of both the S&P 600 Total Return (TR) Index and the peer group as measured by the Lipper Small-Cap Core Funds Index which were up 3.72% and 2.80% respectively. For the year the Fund finished down 4.68%, versus the index and peer group which were down 1.97% and 4.23% respectively.

Overall, allocation played a small role in relative performance for the year. The Fund was underweight in the Energy sector compared to the benchmark S&P 600 TR Index. With the small cap Energy sector down over 40% in 2015, our underweight posture added to relative performance. Somewhat offsetting this, the Fund carried an overweight position in the Materials sector, which was the second worst performing sector, hurting performance on a relative basis.

Importantly, stock selection was again the primary driver of relative performance for the year. Unfortunately, strong performance from certain stocks in the fourth quarter of the year wasn’t quite enough to offset selection related performance earlier in the year.

Cray (CRAY, Financial) was a significant outperformer for the Fund in the fourth quarter. For over a year, management has been indicating that IBM’s re-positioning within the high performance computing space would create opportunities for Cray to take share. Given significant upside surprises to total revenue the last couple quarters, it appears this scenario is starting to play out. In addition, after a few fits and starts, it appears Cray is gaining traction in the rapidly evolving big data space with a couple of new high performance computer offerings. A strong competitive position, coupled with solid growth prospects and a very reasonable valuation support our large holding in Cray.

We didn’t hold Stratasys (SSYS, Financial) for the entire year so it doesn’t appear in the one-year table of top and bottom contributors. But when examining full year performance, it was clearly the one stock in the portfolio with the greatest negative impact on performance. Stratasys is in the additive manufacturing or 3D printing space. With their systems, companies have the ability to rapidly build prototypes to aid in designing new products or create fixtures to quickly adjust manufacturing lines for new products. While we believe in the long-term opportunity in the additive manufacturing space, the industry is going through an unforeseen period of slower growth caused by a lot of free press and headlines in 2013 and 2014. The excitement over 3D printing spurred a lot of buying of systems (and the stocks of these companies) ahead of end-user capacity needs. After a period of digestion, we believe growth will accelerate as the industry starts to make headway into end-use parts and finished products.

United Fire (UFCS, Financial), a property, casualty and life insurance company based in Cedar Falls, Iowa, was a top contributor to performance for the year. Solid execution in building the book value of the company, accompanied by an improving valuation as the stock went from trading at a discount to book value to a slight premium, has driven performance. We like the company’s long-term focus on driving value for shareholders, customers and employees.

Gentherm (THRM, Financial) also was a top contributor to performance for the year. Gentherm supplies major automobile manufacturers with personal comfort modules for heating and cooling seats, steering wheels and cup holders. Through volume growth led by new platform wins, Gentherm was able to grow top line revenues at double digits while increasing the bottom line in the mid-teens as margin improvement took hold in 2015. This led to a nice increase in the stock price for the year. We believe the outlook remains positive for these products and for Gentherm’s business going into 2016.

Two stocks were added to the portfolio in the fourth quarter; Oasis Petroleum (OAS, Financial) and Workiva (WK, Financial). Oasis is a stock we exited earlier in the energy market downturn and have now just started to revisit as oil prices have dropped even further, providing an opportunity to pick up the stock at depressed levels. Workiva is a software as a service or “cloud-based” software company, based in Ames, Iowa. They are in the business of providing software to public companies to create and audit information contained in regulatory filings.

On a fundamental basis, the outlook for small cap stocks appears fairly positive as the more domestic focus of small companies relative to large has helped insulate their financial performance from a slowing global economy and a strengthening dollar. However, it has not insulated them from what appears to be a flight to safety by investors. This has resulted in a valuation compression across the S&P 600 causing the index to trade nearly in line with the S&P 500 on an earnings basis. As small cap stocks have historically grown faster than larger companies, it has been rare that small cap stocks have not carried a premium valuation to large. With less international headwind and reduced relative valuations, we feel small caps are positioned to perform well.

Andrew R. Adams

Lead Manager

Allen D. Steinkopf

Co-Manager

The Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. The summary prospectus or full prospectus contains this and other important information about the Fund, and they may be obtained by calling Shareholder Services at (800) 304-7404 or visiting www.mairsandpower.com. Read the summary prospectus or full prospectus carefully before investing.

The stocks mentioned herein represent the following percentages of the total net assets of the Mairs & Power Small Cap Fund as of December 31, 2015: Actuant Corp 2.64%, Agree Realty Corp. 3.60%, Bemis Co. 3.14%, Buffalo Wild Wings, Inc. 2.18%, Cardiovascular Systems, Inc. 1.85%, Casey’s General Stores, Inc. 2.83%, Cray Inc. 3.34%, Donaldson Inc. 2.41%, Gentherm Inc. 2.55%, Generac Holdings 2.04%, Hawkins, Inc. 2.92%, Hub Group, Inc. 2.20%, International Business Machines (IBM) 0.00%, MDU Resources Group, Inc. 2.98%, Oasis Petroleum 0.68%, PrivateBancorp, Inc. 3.26%, Stratasys 1.52%, United Fire Group 3.67%, VASCO Data Security International, Inc. 2.17%, Vascular Solutions, Inc. 1.22%, Wintrust Financial Corporation 3.17%, Workiva 0.74%.

Book Value is the net asset value of a company, calculated by total assets minus intangible assets.

All holdings in the portfolio are subject to change without notice and may or may not represent current or future portfolio composition. The mention of specific securities is not intended as a recommendation or an offer of a particular security, nor is it intended to be a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.