This fantasy hockey column has an interactive element. For a modest subscription fee, I will, at random intervals, text you the following very important piece of hockey-pool advice: “DON’T BE A HOMER.” I may occasionally throw in a hefty curse word on the house, just to make sure the message lands with impact. This is the same advice I regularly lob at my husband for free, either electronically or yelled down the basement stairs—though in that case, it’s provided out of self-preservation, since we co-manage a team in a very expensive keeper pool.
Of course, the reality is that no amount of haranguing can prevent you or anyone else from being a blind-drunk homer when it comes to hockey pools. You will always overvalue the players on your favourite team, chuckling to yourself about your big score as you pluck from the waiver wire some decrepit fourth-line grinder or peach fuzz–lipped AHL call-up whom no one else wants to touch with a 10-foot pole. It’s just human nature. It’s like asking parents to rate how attractive their child really is: Some rose-tinted glasses just cannot be pried off. But you can at least be aware of the problem and try to combat it, while hoping the other people in your pool succumb completely.
There’s almost a mathematical precision to the warped exchange rate of homerism. Whether you’re contemplating a trade or a waiver-wire pick-up, assume that any player on your favourite team will accumulate about half the stats you predict he will during the remainder of the season. He’ll probably perform better than that, but this discount compensates for the fact that you’re still going to talk yourself into believing any of your guys are improbably destined for greatness.
There’s also a spiteful corollary to this: If you’re assessing a player from a rival team you would most like to stuff into a T-shirt cannon and launch into the sun, assume he’s about one-third better than your instincts tell you. And watch for bargains to be had as a result of the homer bias of your competitors. I once picked up just-slightly-past-their-zeniths Daniel Alfredsson and Jason Spezza in the clearance bin of a hockey pool filled with Sens-hating Leafs fans who, frankly, needed to get a grip.
Homerism in fantasy hockey is like buying stock in Crocs and cheap hot dogs. The goal is to mitigate your own baser instincts while profiting from other people’s.
This story originally appeared in Sportsnet magazine. Subscribe here.
