Way-Too-Early Driver Rankings for the 2016 NASCAR Sprint Cup Season

Three days after the 2015 NASCAR Sprint Cup season ended, I find myself already missing the excitement and drama.

While I wish the 2016 season would start tomorrow, the reality is it won’t for nearly three more months.

But we can get an early start on 2016 by looking ahead to how it might shape up. Given how the 2015 season played out, particularly in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, we have more than enough material to work with.

There’s no question 2016 will be different than 2015 in several ways. Jeff Gordon will be retired and replaced by Chase Elliott. Tony Stewart will begin his final season before his own retirement, and we’ll be missing several longtime sponsors, including GoDaddy and Budweiser.

Let’s take a look at the 10 drivers I believe will start 2016 ready to make some significant noise right from the drop of the first green flag of the season.

Why he’s here

NASCAR’s most popular driver had a good season in 2015, picking up where he left off in 2014. The change to Greg Ives as crew chief this past season not only produced good results, it also brings with it the promise of even better things in 2016.

Key 2015 moments

Earnhardt earned three wins, including the rain-shortened triumph in the penultimate race of the season at Phoenix. He tied single-season career bests with 16 top-fives and 22 top-10s. But perhaps the most noteworthy thing about 2015 was Earnhardt’s per-race finishing average of 11.3, second-best in his career.

What’s next?

It took Earnhardt and Ives probably the better part of the first third of the 2015 season to really start jelling and communicating on the same level. By season’s end, they were among the best driver-crew chief combinations in Sprint Cup racing. That Brad Keselowski won his first Cup championship in 2012, Kevin Harvick did so in 2014 and Kyle Busch in 2015 could potentially inspire Earnhardt to finally get his first elusive Cup crown in 2016.

Why he’s here

Brad Keselowski had a trying season in 2015. Teammate Joey Logano stole the show for Team Penske, while Keselowski just seemed to plod along. Looking at 2016, Keselowski is due for a big rebound. If he and Logano can work together more, they very well could be the best team in Sprint Cup in 2016.

Key 2015 moments

It was very much of a see-saw season for Keselowski once again. Example: When he won his first Sprint Cup championship in 2012, he had five wins, 13 top-fives and 23 top-10 finishes, only to fall back in 2013 to just one win, nine top-fives and 16 top-10s. In 2014, he won a series-high six races, had 17 top-fives and 20 top-10s (plus five poles), but once again reverted in 2015 with just one win, only nine top-fives and 25 top-10s.

What’s next?

Keselowski has to find his way back to Victory Lane much more in 2016. One win is not enough to earn him a second championship. He’s got a great crew chief in Paul Wolfe, but Keselowski needs to ratchet up his driving game. He seemed uncharacteristically tentative and less willing to take chances in 2015 than he had been in previous seasons. We need to see the old Brad back again in 2016.

Why he’s here

Even though he missed the first three races of the 2015 season and had some struggles during the other 23 races of the regular season, Kurt Busch did what he needed to do to make the Chase. And, while he failed to reach the final round, he did have a decent Chase all the same. Given all the changes that already have and will continue to take place at Stewart-Haas Racing for 2016, I can’t help but think some of the most significant improvements at SHR will come from Busch’s No. 41 team.

Key 2015 moments

Busch’s biggest moments were his wins in the spring at both Richmond and Michigan. But he had some very strong showings in the 10-race Chase, with two top-fives and six top-10 finishes. Busch drove with a seriousness and dedication that we haven’t seen since probably his early days with Penske Racing. That’s a good thing that bodes for even better things in 2016.

What’s next?

The elder Busch brother started 2015 with the cloud of a domestic violence case hanging over his head, which led to NASCAR suspending him for the first three races. But when he starts the 2016 season, Busch will be in a much better place in both his personal and professional life. I can easily see the driver of the No. 41 having his best season since his championship-winning campaign in 2004.

Why he’s here

If it hadn’t been for what happened at Talladega, Hamlin likely would have made the final round of the 2015 Chase. Instead, he came into Talladega ranked second in the standings, had a mechanical issue with the roof flaps on his car and ultimately wound up being eliminated from the Chase, all in one race.

Key 2015 moments

Hamlin’s best single-race performances were his wins in the spring at Martinsville and his victory in the Chase opener at Chicagoland. But overall, one thing especially stood out: his consistency. His 14 top-fives and 20 top-10s were among the best single-season showings he’s had in his entire career. Plus, he drove for a significant part of the season with a torn ACL in his knee, but refused to let the injury slow him down or affect his overall performance.

What’s next?

Hamlin continues to be a member in NASCAR’s most dreaded club: Drivers who still have not won a Sprint Cup championship in their careers. It’s not a club he wants to belong to. He’d much rather join the three drivers who left that club when they won their respective championships in 2012 (Brad Keselowski), 2014 (Kevin Harvick) and 2015 (Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch). Will 2016 finally be Denny’s year? It looks good at this point, for sure.

Why he’s here

I’m predicting an even bigger and better season than what Kenseth enjoyed in 2015, when he earned five wins, 12 top-fives and 20 top-10s. Of course, he threw the season away when he wrecked Joey Logano at Martinsville in the Chase. I’m betting Kenseth is going to have an even better year in 2016. Frankly, I would not be surprised to see him go out and win 10 races next season. He has the talent and the team—and the incentive to show up NASCAR for how it dealt with him in the whole Logano affair.

Key 2015 moments

Obviously, the key moments for Kenseth were his five wins in 2015 (Bristol, Pocono, Michigan, Richmond and Loudon). That’s obviously the good side of things. But his overall very good season will forever be colored by the embarrassing two-race suspension he received from NASCAR for slamming Joey Logano into the wall at Martinsville in the fall Chase race. That little move also cost Kenseth’s spot as the driver with the most consecutive starts (565) behind the retiring Jeff Gordon.

What’s next?

Kenseth is known for his laid-back personality. But I predict we’ll see a much more aggressive driver in 2016, someone who will drive with a decided chip on his shoulder, and someone who will make it very clear to other drivers from the time the first green flag drops at Daytona to stay out of his way, because the Kenseth Express will be coming through—especially Joey Logano.

Why he’s here

Carl Edwards had a strong debut season with Joe Gibbs Racing in 2015 after spending the previous 11 seasons at Roush Fenway Racing. But here’s a stat that few noted: He had almost the same overall record in 2015 (two wins, seven top-fives and 15 top-10s) as he did in his final season at RFR in 2014 (two wins, seven top-fives and 14 top-10s). Edwards showed some significant promise of even better things to come, particularly in the Chase.

Key 2015 moments

Edwards’ wins at Charlotte and Darlington were classics, coming in the longest race of the season (Coca-Cola 600) and arguably the toughest track on the Sprint Cup circuit. He also had a very strong Chase. Had it not been for the rain-shortened race at Phoenix, which eliminated Edwards from advancing to the championship round by a mere five points, he could have been a strong contender to win the championship. Don’t think he won’t forget that in 2016; that could very well serve as his main source of inspiration and motivation.

What’s next?

Edwards enters his sophomore season at Joe Gibbs Racing having watched teammate Kyle Busch win the Sprint Cup championship in 2015. This will likely serve as a big source of incentive for Edwards, who still appears as if he hasn’t gotten over coming so close to winning the championship in 2011, only to lose out to Tony Stewart in the tie-breaker. Edwards has to go out and win more races in 2016 (four at the very least), and also has to manage things a bit better in the Chase and not allow himself to get behind like he did in 2015.

Why he’s here

Harvick came oh, so close, to defending his 2014 Sprint Cup championship in 2015. He had arguably the best car all season, but he had a definite issue in sealing the deal, with 13 runner-up finishes, the most since Bobby Allison in 1970. Had he just turned a few of those runner-up finishes into wins, particularly in the Chase, it could have been the difference between winning a second title or, alas, finishing runner-up in the championship battle, as well.

Key 2015 moments

Harvick earned three wins (back-to-back at Las Vegas and Phoenix, as well as his Chase win at Dover), the fewest he’s had in the last three seasons. But that was somewhat tempered by the aforementioned number of runner-up finishes.

However, one thing stood out about Harvick in the Chase, especially: He always seemed to be battling from behind rather than being out ahead of everyone. For example: He had to win the Dover Chase race, otherwise he likely wouldn’t have advanced to Round 2. Plus, he had to have a strong showing at Phoenix in the Chase to stave off elimination from the championship round.

What’s next?

Harvick needs to come out of the gate in 2016 stronger than he ever has. He has to show he and his car are indeed better than new champ Kyle Busch. He also has to prove that his 2014 title was not a one-and-done fluke. For a guy who had the best car in most of the races in 2015, Harvick fell far too short when it came to wins. As is true for Matt Kenseth, Harvick needs to go out and win a lot more in 2016, maybe six or more.

Why he’s here

Joey Logano had a breakout season in 2015, earning a series-high six wins—starting with a triumph in the season-opening Daytona 500—and advancing all the way to the third round of the Chase. Had it not been for his problems in the playoffs with Matt Kenseth, Logano likely would have advanced to the championship round.

Key 2015 moments

Granted, the win at Daytona was the biggest victory of Logano’s career. Plus, coupled with his five wins in 2014, he amassed 11 total wins in 2014 and 2015, the most of any driver in the Sprint Cup Series. That says a lot for the 25-year-old Connecticut driver. But his hard edge, particularly with Kenseth in the Chase, did not earn Logano any friends. If anything, it likely cost him respect from fellow drivers and fans alike. Unless he matures and becomes more of a fair driver, instead of trying to be a tough guy, it’s going to continue to work against him.

What’s next?

I predict Logano will win at least four races in 2016. But at the same time, with the incidents he had with Kenseth, I’m not going to be surprised to see Logano lose some of his drafting partners, particularly at Daytona and Talladega. Hopefully, he’ll eventually sit down and hash things out with Kenseth—and they both can come away with a better perspective and feel for each other.

Why he’s here

Even though he was eliminated after the first round, Jimmie Johnson had some strong races in the 2015 Chase, including a win at Texas. That particular race was vintage J.J., prompting me to think that he’s going to come back even stronger in 2016. While he fell short of his goal of tying NASCAR Hall of Famers Richard Petty and the late Dale Earnhardt for most career championships (seven apiece) in 2015, I predict you’ll see Johnson as motivated as he’s ever been to win that elusive seventh title in 2016.

Key 2015 moments

Johnson had the second-most Sprint Cup wins (five, tied with Matt Kenseth) in 2015. But even with so many visits to Victory Lane, Johnson just didn’t seem to have the personality or results that he’s come to be known for in seasons past, particularly in his six championship campaigns. Of all five of his wins, the victory at Texas stood out as the most important, as it proved if anyone thought Johnson had lost a step or two, he definitely found it in Fort Worth.

What’s next?

In 2016, Johnson will be a man on a mission to not only pick up where he left off in 2015, but also to earn that elusive seventh Sprint Cup championship. With the retirement of teammate Jeff Gordon, Johnson won’t have his close friend and co-owner of his car to lean upon. It could be interesting to see just how much Gordon’s retirement ultimately affects Johnson’s own performance—if at all.

Why he’s here

Why wouldn’t Busch be here? After all, he’s the defending champion, isn’t he? He earns the top spot by default. But I also believe that after winning his first Sprint Cup championship, Busch is going to win at least two or three more in his career. He’s only 30 years old and, with the momentum he has coming out of 2015, could take his career to a whole new level from here.

Key 2015 moments

Obviously, Busch’s championship tops the list. But how he won it, with four wins and finishing the 26-race regular season in the top 30to qualify for the Chase is also right up there. And let’s not forget Busch did all this while having missed the first 11 races recovering from a broken leg and foot. Busch didn’t just win the championship; he earned it under some very difficult circumstances. He deserves all the kudos and accolades he gets. He did an outstanding job.

What’s next?

There’s an old adage in sports that the first championship is always the hardest. If that’s the case, Busch may have an easier time of it as he pursues his second consecutive Sprint Cup championship in 2016.

Follow me on Twitter @JerryBonkowski