When hedge fund manager "titans" think alike, investors are wise to pay attention. At Holdings Channel, we have reviewed 3,733 13F filings for the 06/30/2014 reporting period, and noticed that Assured Guaranty Ltd (NYSE: AGO) was held by 8 of the particular managers we have flagged as "titans" most widely followed by investors. It is not every day we see this many notable hedge fund managers thinking alike, so we wanted to take a closer look.
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Before we continue, it is important to point out that 13F filings do not tell the whole story, because these funds are only required to disclose their long positions with the SEC, but are not required to disclose their short positions. A fund making a bearish bet against a stock by shorting calls, for example, might also be long some amount of stock as they trade around their overall bearish position. This long component could show up in a 13F filing and everyone might assume the fund is bullish, but this tells only part of the story because the bearish/short side of the position is not seen.
Having given that caveat, we believe that looking at groups of 13F filings can be revealing, especially when comparing one holding period to another. Below, let's take a look at the change in AGO positions for each of the titans that reported holding some amount of AGO at 06/30/2014:
| Fund Manager | New Position? | Change In Share Count | Change In Market Value ($ in 1000's) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Bacon (Moore Capital Management) | Existing | -1,275,942 | -$35,273 |
| Leon Cooperman (Omega Advisors) | Existing | -320,100 | -$9,690 |
| Ray Dalio (Bridgewater) | NEW | +18,999 | +$465 |
| Joel Greenblatt (Gotham Asset Management) | Existing | -1,800 | -$53 |
| Ken Griffin (Citadel) | Existing | +531,854 | +$12,847 |
| Jim Simons (Renaissance Tech) | Existing | -403,328 | -$10,916 |
| George Soros (Soros Fund Management) | Existing | +128,000 | +$2,388 |
| Brian Taylor (Pine River) | NEW | +2,511 | +$62 |
| Aggregate Change: | -1,319,806 | -$40,170 | |
In terms of shares owned, we count 2 of the identified titans above having increased existing AGO positions from 03/31/2014 to 06/30/2014, with 4 having decreased their positions and 2 new positions. Worth noting is that Wilbur Ross (Invesco) — also deemed to have "titan" status — exited AGO common stock as of 06/30/2014.
Looking beyond these particular hedge funds of interest, we tallied up the AGO share count in the aggregate among all of the funds which held AGO at the 06/30/2014 reporting period (out of the 3,733 we looked at). We then compared that number to the sum total of AGO shares those same funds held back at the 03/31/2014 period, to see how the aggregate share count held by hedge funds has moved for AGO. We found that between these two periods, hedge funds reduced their holdings by 6,321,832 shares in the aggregate, from 167,655,682 down to 161,333,850 for a share count decline of approximately -3.77%. The overall top three hedge funds holding AGO on 06/30/2014 were:
| Fund | Shares of AGO Held | |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | Wellington Management Co. LLP | 12,988,028 |
| 2. | Vanguard Group Inc. | 9,036,812 |
| 3. | Putnam Investments LLC | 8,395,072 |
| 4-10 | Find out the full Top 10 Hedge Funds Holding AGO |
We'll keep following the latest 13F filings by hedge fund managers and bring you interesting stories derived from a look at the aggregate information across groups of managers between filing periods. While looking at individual 13F filings can sometimes be misleading due to the long-only nature of the information, the sum total across groups of funds from one reporting period to another can be a lot more revealing and relevant, providing interesting stock ideas that merit further research, like Assured Guaranty Ltd (NYSE: AGO).
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