Race for the red line: who will seal the remaining MLS playoff spots?

With only one fixture this weekend amid the international break, Major League Soccer takes a collective breath before most of its teams will make one final, push for a post-season berth. Today we look at those teams that have yet to qualify for/be eliminated from post-season contention to weigh their prospects as the 2015 season winds down.

Eastern Conference

New England Revolution

Though they are almost certainly a lock for playoff qualification, Jay Heaps’ New England haven’t made life easy for their fans. Despite facing three clubs below them in the standings in their last three fixtures, the Revs only managed a single point in that stretch—a 1-1 home draw with the Philadelphia Union. Trickier still, the Revs’ two remaining fixtures are against Eastern Conference teams that will potentially be in desperate need of a win, the Montreal Impact and New York City FC. A successful run however could see the Revs avoid the one-and-done playoff knockout match.

Columbus Crew

Like the Revs, the Columbus Crew have stumbled their way to the finish line. While thrilling for neutrals, their two most recent results – losses against the New York Red Bulls and the Portland Timbers – mean that the Crew must get a point in their final two remaining fixtures to make the post-season. While that’s pretty much a certainty, their next match is at BMO Field against a Toronto FC team that, depending on how other fixtures go, may either be still in the playoff hunt or pushing for a spot in the Conference semi-finals.

Toronto FC

Though Orlando City’s 2-1 home win over the Montreal Impact postponed TFC’s playoff party, the team is in the driver’s seat in the Eastern Conference with three remaining fixtures. After three consecutive wins they are, according some analysts, the odds on favourite to finish second in the Eastern Conference. There are one or two caveats, however. The team will host the very in-form New York Red Bulls this Wednesday without the services of their leading goalscorer and creator Sebastian Giovinco, on international duty with Italy. They may also be without Jozy Altidore and Michael Bradley as well. Still, barring a catastrophic finish (not beyond the realm of possibility for this club), Toronto will qualify for playoffs for the first time in team history.

Montreal Impact

Where did this team come from? Having flown under the radar for so long as their multiple games in hand disguised their decent form, the Didier Drogba signing and Frank Klopas sacking have helped the East’s also-rans become a bona fide MLS Cup dark horse. Nevertheless, their two most recent results, losses to playoff rivals Orlando City and the Supporters’ Shield-chasing New York Red Bulls, have slowed their momentum a little. Now the club are a point and a game-in-hand ahead of Orlando City. A visit to the already eliminated Colorado Rapids this weekend may have come just in time.

Orlando City SC

Orlando refuse to go gently into that good night. Though they are outsiders in the race for the final playoff spot, luck has gone their way recently as the Montreal Impact have stumbled in recent fixtures. Orlando meanwhile have won four straight and – better yet – face two beatable teams in New York City FC and the lame duck Philadelphia Union to close out the year. Even so, Adrian Heath’s best hope for a post-season berth in their inaugural MLS season is for the Montreal Impact to keep dropping points. Though the Impact are good for a win this weekend, they must also face New England and Toronto before the season finishes … all the Lions can do is watch and pray.

New York City FC

As the time of writing, the stats site American Soccer Analysis gives New York City FC a 0.5% chance of making the post-season, which … may be optimistic. Not only must the club win their two remaining games against the Orlando City and the New England Revolution, but they require both Orlando and Montreal to tank for the rest of the season. A dignified finish with some effort from its high-priced DPs is about all City can hope for.

Western Conference

Sporting Kansas City

The good news is that after a difficult 0-1 victory over Western Conference playoff rivals Portland, Sporting KC are in need of three points from their remaining three fixtures to guarantee a post-season berth. Their best bet to get them, should San Jose make the most of home field advantage next Friday, is a fixture against the eliminated Rapids at home the following midweek. The bad news is that Sporting have been anything but consistent over September, and will have to hope several players on international duty this week don’t meet with any misfortune. Despite the doom and gloom, however, Peter Vermes’ side are considered a playoff lock.

Seattle Sounders FC

Despite a summer stretch that could only be described as an unqualified disaster with the team going 1-0-9 at one point, the Seattle Sounders need only a win to clinch their seventh consecutive playoff berth. Though Sigi Schmid’s side have undoubtedly improved since then, the team is still not at their 2014 best, with three draws and a win in their last four matches. That run effectively prevented them from defending the Supporters’ Shield title; now, with two matches left in the season, they will face the very vulnerable playoff no-hopers Houston Dynamo and Real Salt Lake.

San Jose Earthquakes

Though the San Jose Earthquakes will likely look back at 2015 with regret that they were unable to make more of home field advantage in the last stretch of the season – the team managed a so-so 2-3-2 record in their last seven games, six of which were at Avaya Stadium – they still control their own destiny. That said, they will almost certainly need to win their last two fixtures to stay in contention, first playing Sporting KC at home and then travelling to an already-qualified FC Dallas on the final game of the season. No doubt the still-scoring Chris Wondolowski – on international duty this week with USA – will play a major role in deciding the club’s post-season future.

Portland Timbers

On paper, the Timbers look like playoff outsiders, yet Caleb Porter’s team is still clinging to a game-in-hand. Despite that, their 0-1 home loss to Sporting Kansas City last Saturday may eventually go down as the moment their playoff hopes ended. Portland will likely need at the very least to win 2 and draw 1 of their remaining games to stay in contention, and that will require successful away trips to both Real Salt Lake and the LA Galaxy. Worse still, several of their key players, including the two Diegos, Chara and Valeri, are a yellow card away from a one-game suspension. The Timbers will need to tread lightly to keep their 2015 season alive.

Houston Dynamo

A 4-1 loss to Texas rivals FC Dallas last Sunday effectively ended the Dynamo’s bid for a playoff spot, as the club trails the Timbers on by three points and has one fewer game to play. Odds site Sports Club Stats gives Houston at best an 22% chance at the final playoff spot if, and only if, they win their two remaining fixtures against the Cascadia powerhouses Seattle and Vancouver. In an inauspicious debut season for Owen Coyle as manager, the Dynamo can only hope to not go out with a whimper.

Real Salt Lake

Though second to last place in the Western Conference standings, in true MLS fashion Real Salt Lake are in a relatively decent position to make a run at the final playoff spot. A big win against regional rivals the Colorado Rapids last weekend, courtesy of some gorgeous goals from Luke Mulholland and Joao Plata, means RSL have three games upon which to pin their post-season hopes, including a potential belter against the Portland Timbers this Wednesday. Better still for Jeff Cassar’s side, two of the three will be at the Rio Tinto (their last match is an away game against Seattle). It’s not done yet for the Claret and Cobalt.