What 16 Twitter analysts are saying about the depressing outlook and stock-price crash

Rating: Buy

Price Target: $56 (revised down from $60)

Comment: "We remain bullish on the prospects of LT user and engagement improvement as TWTR has, and will continue to, iterate the product. Improved curation, coming in the form of Project Lightning in fall (see pg 2) and shifts away from the reverse chronological timeline are the next steps in attempting to execute on Dorsey's plan. Additionally, TWTR will be ramping unified mktg efforts to help close the gap between its 95% aided global awareness and 30% penetration in top markets."

Rating: Overweight

Price Target: $52

Comment: "Per usual, Twitter beat Q2 estimates but missed user targets. Monetization bulls and user bears have another reason to stay entrenched in this battleground stock. Results were close enough to normal that the announcement of the new CEO, which we expect in Q4, should be the next catalyst for long-term sentiment; we remain positive on TWTR in front of a new direction."

Rating: Buy

Price Target: $50

Comment: "Our positive stance on TWTR is unchanged following 2Q results — the company is iterating on product in hopes of increasing the user base but not yet showing traction, and items in management's control like ad revenue are exceeding expectations. The 40%+ correction over the past quarter factors in management's muted tone toward growing MAUs, from here at 6.5x revenue we view the risk/reward as favorable. User growth will cause shares to re-rate higher as has been the case historically, but timing is unclear based on the updated 2Q commentary, and we are waiting patiently."

Rating: Buy

Price Target: $50 (revised down from $60)

Comment: "While uncertainty around user growth in 2H, an integrated marketing campaign this fall and new product launches/enhancements could keep the stock range-bound near-term, we believe that the long-term thesis around Twitter remains intact, given 1) its differentiated offering as the largest real-time broadcasting platform with over 300M MAUs, 2) growing level of monetization, and 3) material financial leverage over time."

Rating: Buy

Price Target: $50

Comment: "Our PT is based on our blended valuation approach (EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA, EV/FCF)."

Rating: Buy

Price Target: $49 (revised down from $56)

Comment: "Management expects similar growth in MAUs until Twitter can reach the mass market, something contingent on improving the user experience and marketing the value proposition of being an engaged Twitter user. While this carries a high degree of difficulty we do believe the company can accomplish those goals and with TWTR trading at a 1.5X the median sector multiple despite more than 2X sector EBITDA growth, we see the risk/reward as favorable."

Rating: Buy

Price Target: $47

Comment: "We were expecting muted commentary ahead of an official CEO and were pleased that the company was able to beat numbers and largely increase guidance. We continue to expect Project Lightning (live-curated events) when it is launched in the fall (ahead of our prior expectations of end of Q4'15) to reinvigorate the user base and aid in MAU growth recovery."

Rating: Market Outperform

Price Target: $43 (revised down from $48)

Comment: "We note several potential catalysts in 2H15 around the launch of new products (namely project Lightening), an integrated marketing campaign to attract users, and the continued roll-out of the Google (GOOG, MO, $720 PT) search partnership."

Rating: Sector Perform

Price Target: $41 (revised down from $47) 

Comment: "Our broad concerns remain two-fold: 1) It's not clear when/if product/UI changes can stabilize or reaccelerate User & Usage metrics. And mgmt's cautious commentary re: Q3 MAU growth compounds doubts about the user value proposition. 2) Channel checks and our survey work don't provide convincing evidence that a substantial number of advertisers will commit meaningful $s to TWTR. Our concern for some time has been that Twitter's lack of real-time commercial intent (a la Google) or detailed, authenticated profiles (a la FB) will eventually limit TWTR's growth potential. By themselves, monetization improvements (including rising ad loads) can't sustain premium growth rates. That why MAU growth matters. That's why User and Usage metrics matter. And that's why hitting Metrics Growth Walls REALLY MATTERS ... "

Rating: Neutral

Price Target: $40 (revised down from $44) 

Comment: "In the near term, we expect concerns on users/usage to weigh on stock as street takes a wait and see approach to the Project Lightening (curated feeds and news) launch in the fall. In the long-term, Twitter needs to become a mass market platform and we are not convinced added marketing will put the platform over the hump (it is a product problem, in our view). Given slowing user and rev. growth, we expect a smaller multiple gap to Facebook, and we are lowering our price objective to $40 based on 30x 2016 EBITDA (vs. Facebook trading at18x). We think Twitter could continue to see some valuation support on acquisition news."

Rating: Equal Weight

Price Target: $40 (revised down from $44)

Comment: "At this point, patience will be the key for Twitter investors. It will likely take time to see any product changes materially improve user trends. There wasn't any new information regarding the announcement of a permanent CEO, so that could also take some time. The company is likely to start a more aggressive marketing campaign to reignite growth, but that too, is likely a quarter or two away. We remain EW the shares as we await clear signs of improvements to product, user growth and engagement. Additionally, without user growth, we worry about our 2016 revenue estimates."

Rating: Equal-weight

Price Target: $36 (revised down from $39) 

Comment: "While user growth expectations were already lowered going into Q2, commentary around the inability to break into 'mass market' bring into question the addressable market. TWTR ultimately needs to drive ad load and pricing higher to work, and at current levels stock remains expensive in our view."

Rating: Neutral

Price Target: $34 (revised down from $40)

Comment: "The bottom line for TWTR is that after nine years of its existence, my mother still doesn't understand what it means to 'hashtag' something, but she does understand what it means to 'like' something. That is to say that Twitter is still too difficult to use and inaccessible to too many. It still isn't a mass-market product and it is unclear if it ever will be. User growth is the key issue. Monetization isn't the problem. The road map for monetization has already been shown by Facebook; TWTR can just follow it (and, in fact, is). However, if it can't improve the product and make it more interesting and accessible to more users, the stock simply will not work."

Rating: Neutral

Price Target: $38 (revised down from $40) 

Comment: "We remain cautiously optimistic on TWTR in the long term due to: logged out user opportunity, new products, Google (GOOGL, $659.66, Buy) partnership, better targeting, and the potential to improve mass-market penetration. However, in the short term given recent challenges, we think investors have labeled Twitter a 'prove it' story. Execution on product rollouts and their ultimate effectiveness in growing MAUs/engagement will remain paramount."

Rating: Market Perform

Price Target: N/A 

Comment: "Recent efforts to improve Twitter's usability have yet to drive improved user growth, and we believe this remains a key inhibitor of outsized revenue growth. Solving the usability issue will likely take several quarters, and thus we expect quarterly results to remain volatile near term."

Rating: Perform

Price Target: N/A 

Comment: "While 2Q EBITDA was 17% above the Street, we see muted investor enthusiasm around shares as management acknowledged the company 'don't expect to see sustained meaningful growth in MAUs.' At 7x '16 sales, TWTR is the second most expensive US internet stock behind FB, and still ahead of most internet category leaders that have a clearer product/revenue road map."