Behind the hype: Is Black Friday dead or thriving?

Syracuse, N.Y. — Black Friday may not be dead, but it is certainly a different beast than it was even a few years ago.

The idea of a single, dominant day of big deals that launched the retail holiday push seems quaint at this point.

Amazon and Wal-Mart began their Black Friday promotions weeks before the big day. Best Buy held an in-store sales event with Black Friday-type deals in early November.

Nearly every big-name retailer runs some sort of advance Black Friday sale at this point, including free shipping deals, price matching and old-fashioned discounts.

Looking for a major driver of the trend? Try Amazon, said Doug Hermanson, a senior economist with analysis firm Kantar Retail.

The online giant has been at the forefront of ever-earlier Black Friday deals. In the face of that pressure, brick-and-mortar stores can't afford to wait until the actual day, Hermanson said.

"When it comes down to it, Amazon has really changed the game," he said. "Other retailers have kind of followed suit."

Deals are now an expectation, Hermanson added. Shoppers are willing to wait until they see them to make their purchases.

That's true even if some of those deals are repeats. An analysis from the website WalletHub found that 11 percent of this year's Black Friday deals are the same as 2014.

Big Lots, Costco and Best Buy were the top recyclers, according to the analysis.

Still, Black Friday and the surrounding days remain a major period for in-person, in-store shopping.

Retail analysis firm ShopperTrak projects Black Friday 2015 to be the biggest day of the holiday season in terms of sales and foot traffic. It has been a top day in recent years as well.

About 87 million people shopped on Black Friday last year, according to the National Retail Federation, a national retail trade group. That made it the busiest day of the full Thanksgiving weekend.

"It's a tradition that consumers and retailers hold close," said Kathy Grannis Allen, a spokeswoman for the federation.

NRF expects holiday spending this year will reach more than $630 billion, an increase of 3.7 percent from 2014. Online sales should increase 6 percent to 8 percent to as much as $105 billion.

More than 135 million people could shop over the Thanksgiving weekend this year, according to the federation. More than 133 million showed up over the holiday weekend in 2014.

Consumers have already started buying gifts.

About 40 percent of shoppers begin before Halloween. More than 56 percent had started by early November, according to a survey from NRF.

That means stores need to be first with something, Grannis said. That could mean early announcements on sales or simply offering consumers something unique they can't get elsewhere.

If stores play things right, early birds can be a stabilizing force, said Jesse Tron, a spokesman for the International Council of Shopping Centers, a trade group for mall owners. Earlier shopping means retailers become less reliant on the short holiday period for their overall success.

But they need to tune their strategies to savvy shoppers.

"They know they're going to pick and choose their moments," Tron said of modern consumers. "They're probably not going to do it all in one shot."

If you're a shopping fanatic, all that pressure means you're going to find good deals no matter what time of the season you choose to buy.

Tron noted that holiday sales even extend into January at this point, as stores respond to post-Christmas gift card business.

And there's more information available online than ever on stores, deals and promotions, said Melissa Martin, a spokeswoman for the deal-focused website blackfriday.com.

"You're going to be able to really plan and process and strategize," she said.

Just remember: Stores aren't offering all these sales to be nice. They want you to spend early and often.

So do you research, have fun and make sure you carve out some family time along the way.

Syracuse.com will have full coverage of Black Friday all week. Have something to say about the fun? Tweet us at #cnyblackfriday.

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