Fantasy Football's Best Buy and Sell Candidates Heading into Week 5

Now that we're nearly 31 percent into the fantasy football regular season, it's time to start talking trades. Each league's trade market behaves differently, but it's always wise to consider which players are worth pursuing for our imaginary portfolios and which commodities should be marketed for sale.

Philadelphia Eagles tailback DeMarco Murray went 10th overall on average in ESPN drafts this summer. Of the 49 NFL backs with at least 25 carries this season, Murray ranks last with just 1.62 yards per carry. Should we pursue last season's leading rusher at a discount? Or would avoiding be the prudent play? 

Join us as we go through each position and discuss potential profit players we should buy, as well as players we might want to sell on the doorstep of Week 5.

Have a trade offer you'd like the community to consider? Please share your takes on the fantasy football trade market in the comments below.

Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson is currently 12th in fantasy points per game among signal-callers in ESPN standard scoring. Wilson was third in fantasy points per game at the position last season and was drafted as the fourth quarterback on average in ESPN leagues this summer.

Even though he's produced pedestrian fantasy results to date, shares of Wilson should be bought where possible. The reasoning in acquiring the Wisconsin product is largely based on regression to the mean in rushing touchdowns and his increased passing volume.

Wilson is running nearly at the same per-game clip as last season, on pace for 708 rushing yards, yet he is without a rushing touchdown to date after having scored six last season (accounting for 11 percent of his fantasy production in 2014). Bigger box scores are on the way in the rushing department, as Wilson is actually trending for 18 more rushing attempts than last season, or roughly two-plus games of rushing attempts more than 2014's stellar results on the ground.

Wilson claims nearly identical passing paces this season as 2014—he's posted 7.7 yards per attempt this season after hitting that same efficiency mark last year. Wilson is currently on pace for 20 passing touchdowns, the same total as last year, and yet he now has Jimmy Graham's red-zone pedigree and is on pace for 12.4 percent more passing attempts than in 2014.

More inviting matchups are on the way for Wilson, with multiple meetings with the reeling 49ers' secondary and some choice matchups with the Browns and Ravens deep into fantasy playoff territory. If you're streaming at signal-caller or waiting on the Cowboys' Tony Romo to return, inquire with the Wilson owner to see what it would take in a trade, before bigger fantasy outings shift his stock.

Other Arms To Pursue

The Giants' Eli Manning might not appear to be an obvious buy candidate, but in a volume passing offense and without super wideout Odell Beckham going off yet, he could be a really strong asset to acquire. The NFC East has proven quite friendly to opposing fantasy passers, which should also be considered when pursuing Peyton's baby bro.

We were enthused to endorse the Colts' Andrew Luck as a buy, but some disconcerting news early on Thursday from the NFL Network's Ian Rapoport suggests Luck might sit out Thursday night's division tilt in Houston. In reality, this is very troubling for the Colts. In fantasy, this is very troubling for Luck's investors. This all said, it would still be worthwhile to offer a hot hand like the Bills' Tyrod Taylor to the Luck owner in your league with an eye on a buy-low window.

The Buffalo Bills found a desperately needed gem behind center in quarterback Tyrod Taylor. The Virginia Tech product is currently sixth in fantasy points per game at the position in ESPN leagues, ahead of expensive arms like Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger, to name a few.

Selling Taylor, or at least testing his market value, is a smart move based on some recent efficiency issues that might prove foreboding going forward. Namely, Taylor has feasted on some weak opponents to date, with the Colts and Dolphins proving soft in the secondary and without a real pass rush.

In the two games against formidable fronts, Taylor has been sacked 10 times with four interceptions in facing the Giants and the Patriots. If not for some stat-padding garbage time in facing the Patriots, Taylor's per-game fantasy résumé wouldn't be as impressive.

With an effective pressure plan, the Giants held the Bills to just a 19 percent third-down conversion rate in Week 4, while Buffalo had converted a strong 41 percent of third-down scenarios entering Week 4. The combination of Taylor's rushing ability and some nice late matchups mean he's not a player you must sell, but rather one managers would be wise to market for say the Seahawks' Russell Wilson or the Colts' Andrew Luck in a trade package.

Selling Signal-Callers

Can the Bengals' Andy Dalton, currently leading the league in yards per dropback, sustain such stellar rates? Should we sell on the Saints' Drew Brees after a solid Week 4 repaired some lust luster? 

Please share your thoughts on quarterbacks we should be marketing for sale entering Week 5.

The Eagles' DeMarco Murray makes for a smart buy among backs. Why would we want shares of Philadelphia's seemingly crumbling offense? For one, Murray's owners must be panicked, thus deflating his market value and creating a potential window for value.

Even as he's struggled so mightily on the ground—Murray is last among 49 backs with at least 25 rushes with just 1.62 yards per rush—the Eagles' feature back is currently 20th among backs in per-game points-per-reception (PPR) scoring, using ESPN's scoring key.

While two touchdowns in Week 1 certainly inflates his fantasy production, it's worth noting Murray and teammate Ryan Mathews have averaged a combined a 4.3 red-zone rushing attempts per game, a rate that would tie the Jets' Chris Ivory for sixth most in the league among backs if consolidated. 

Mathews is certainly still a factor, yet we saw last week that Murray remains the majority shareholder in the Philly backfield. A stretch of inviting rush defenses is on the way, and it would really only take one big game to shift Murray's market.

With his price so depressed, angle for Murray in all formats. Offer the classic two- or three-for-one deal, with waiver wonders like the Falcons' Leonard Hankerson and other low-cost commodities that you might be able to immediately market.

Other Backs We're Buying

Some might suggest you sell on the Bengals' Jeremy Hill after a 3-score Sunday in Week 4, but with a strong, if not majority, share of goal-line work on a strong offense, but the market is still wary of his role, it may be wise to hold onto shares. It's worth noting the Bengals arguably claim the league's best offensive line play through the first month.

The Patriots' LeGarrette Blount won't cost much at all to acquire in dealings, but is the rare discount at the position with legitimate double-digit touchdown potential going forward. Even if Blount is a plodding early-down bruiser who is limited in touches behind Dion Lewis, being red-zone pals with Tom Brady has its benefits. Many fantasy investors will write off Blount as a purely a touchdown back, but that's not such a bad distinction at a shallow fantasy position these days.

Jacksonville's T.J. Yeldon is getting plenty of work, evidenced by ranking third in the league in carries through four weeks. With Blake Bortles playing at least replacement level football behind center, Yeldon offers a strong weekly floor with some big games on the way if he can get in the end zone.

The Jets' Chris Ivory runs like he's on fire and wants everyone else on the field to be on fire, too. Never one to avoid contact, Ivory's style is reminiscent of Eddie Lacy, or if we want to feel old, Earl Campbell.

It can appear a bit anecdotal to suggest we sell on Ivory based solely on his physical style of play, but if we look at his long and troubling injury history, the connection between these two elements makes more sense. The real motivation here is to market Ivory off of his best game of the season so far, which is to say, "sell high" on Ivory.

Limited solely to early-down work, the Jets will need to be in control of the scoreboard or at least close in order for the game script to favor Ivory's skills. As much as I adore Ivory's game tape on review, it's not hard to imagine more injuries cropping up—he's already been an active scratch this season.

Selling Duke

While it's really a fresh market to consider, it makes sense to see what Cleveland Browns rookie Duke Johnson might be able to net in a deal. He's fresh from a huge outing in San Diego that saw him used heavily in the passing game, but similarly to Ivory, Johnson's role and usage is fairly game-flow dependent.

Johnson's own long injury history should be considered in addition to being isolated as a change-of-pace asset for the Browns. If Johnny Manziel ever takes the helm of the team's offense again, which isn't so tough to imagine as the front office and staff might want to see what they have if Josh McCown can't help in the win column in the coming weeks, Johnson may not be getting worthy passing work to support a starting fantasy gig, given Manziel's low-volume passing game.

With Robert Turbin—who was quite efficient in the passing game for Seattle last season—on the mend and Isaiah Crowell already consuming goal-line work, maybe putting Johnson in an offer for the Eagles' DeMarco Murray could prove profitable. Johnson has great career upside, but it'd be best to immediately cash in on his big Week 4 if possible.

The Colts' T.Y. Hilton has undoubtedly disappointed investors this season. As the ninth wideout in average draft position among receivers in ESPN leagues this offseason, Hilton is just 41st in fantasy points per game at the position (using ESPN standard scoring).

Healthy vertical usage is Hilton's calling card as long as signal-caller Andrew Luck is active. Even as Donte Moncrief has emerged as a valid secondary option for Luck past Hilton on the outside, Hilton remains the team's deep threat, as he's fifth among receivers since the start of last season in yards per reception on balls thrown at least 10 yards downfield with a robust 24.3 yards per reception on such throws.

While concerns over Luck's shoulder are legitimate, they also open up the potential for dramatic discounts on the Colts' speedy wideout.

If You Can Land a "Megadeal," Go Get Megatron

While a valid argument could be made that a wideout tied at 41st in fantasy points per game—Detroit's Calvin Johnson—is also a strong buy given a deflated market, I'm much more interested in getting shares of an Andrew Luck offense than with a regressed Matthew Stafford behind center.

That said, discounted shares of "Megatron" for the right price are solid, but Hilton's stock should be preferred going forward. If you can pry away Johnson for multiple mid-level commodities, it's worth the risk, even as the Lions' offense looks lost.

Which wideouts would you want to buy heading into Week 5?

The Bucs' Vincent Jackson has long been a frustrating fantasy commodity given consistently inconsistent production. Currently 21st at the position in per-game fantasy scoring in ESPN leagues, Jackson is coming off a classic "boom" game, with many bust weeks still to come.

In working with a wildly inefficient rookie signal caller in Jameis Winston and with pass-catching peer Mike Evans consuming a strong share of the team's targets, moving Jackson fresh off a strong game has always been a wide strategy.

In poring over his game logs since 2013, Jackson has produced just 10 games out of 36 played with at least 10 fantasy points, using ESPN scoring. In that span, he's tallied seven-or-fewer fantasy points 20 times. Almost 60 percent of the time, you are getting a weak week from Jackson.

If you can leverage a flex-level tailback and Jackson in a package for the Colts' T.Y. Hilton or the Lions' Calvin Johnson, that screams of potential profit. Going after Evans or the Jaguars' Allen Robinson in place of Jackson is a formidable option.

Which wideouts are you wary of as we head into Week 5? 

Tight end is often a shallow and fickle fantasy position. With the Patriots' Rob Gronkowski miles ahead of the pack, we're mostly left with boom-or-bust, touchdown-dependent commodities to sift through at the position.

One player at the position who has avoided troubling production patterns is the Titans' Delanie Walker. Currently 11th in fantasy points-per-game among tight ends, using ESPN scoring, and 8th in targets per game at the position, Walker is poised to produce strong TE1 numbers going forward.

Walker's rare rookie signal-caller, Marcus Mariota, is second in the league in yards per attempt to tight ends with a healthy 10.42 yards per such throws. Mariota is also completing 77.4 percent of his throws to tight ends this year, fifth in football.

Walker's sluggish start to the season has capped his stock to date, but continued usage from Mariota should see him vault into the upper-echelon at the position in the coming weeks. Already past his bye, Walker can become the rare every-week option at the position.

Timing isn't everything in fantasy football, that would be touchdowns, but it is vital to understand how the moving market for talent shifts as the season progresses.

The ideal time to move the Bengals' Tyler Eifert was likely a few weeks ago. After the first two games of the season Eifert appeared to be set for a massive breakout campaign, second only to the Patriots' Rob Gronkowski in per-game fantasy production with a robust 16 fantasy points per game in ESPN leagues.

Since Week 3, however, Eifert has averaged just three fantasy points per game, tying him with Larry Donnell at 23rd at the position over the past two weeks. Eifert has been targeted on just 14.3 percent of his routes this season after being targeted on 29 percent of his routes run in the first two weeks of the season.

As has been the case in Cincinnati over the past several seasons, it's been quite difficult to find consistent passing production past A.J. Green in the Bengals' offense. Still set with a lofty ranking at the position, Eifert is still fourth at the position in per-game fantasy production thanks to the hot start, flipping Eifert for the Titans' Delanie Walker or the Chargers' Antonio Gates heading into Week 5 wouldn't be the worst move.