Barrington: Sothebys To Set Records At November Impressionist Auction

Sothebys BID should get good results at a key November fine art auction, an analyst said Monday.

Strong sales at London's recent Frieze Art Week and similar events in Hong Kong suggest continued robust demand for high-end art, Barrington's Kristina Koeber said in a note.

"This year's supply isn't the highest in the company's history, but we expect record results," according to Koeber, who rates Sotheby's Outperform with a $50 target.

Koeber focused particularly on Sothebys' line-up of impressionist paintings set for auction next month which have an estimated value 33 percent higher than at a similar event last year.

The Guardian singled out the Claude Monet painting, Alice Hoschedé au jardin, which it said is forecast to fetch about $35 million, a new record for a portrait by that artist.

Koeber said two "high profile lots" in Sothebys' catalog for the impressionist event, one by the Swiss sculptor and printmaker Alberto Giacometti and another by the Italian sculptor and painter Amedeo Giacometti, comprise most of the total guaranteed value.

Sothebys is on the hook if a lot sells for less than a guaranteed sales price, "so there is financial risk," Koeber said.

Lots by Monet, Van Gogh and others set for auction aren't guaranteed.

Koeber pointed to Sotheby's October 16 filing that said its current auction guarantees total $392.6 million.

About 11 percent of the lots at Sothebys' Impressionist sale are guaranteed and those lots in total carry a pre-sale estimate of $144.3 million to $198.6 million. The figure implies that Sothebys will take on greater risk at an auction of contemporary art, also slated for November, Koeber said.

Sothebys traded recently up 0.5 percent at $36.68 per share.