Normally, on Wednesday nights, “South Park” is the about the most outlandish thing you can see on television. Tomorrow, however, the third and final presidential debate might give that show some steep competition; if it’s anything like the first two debates, America is in for some prime time drama.
Background:
To most Americans the first two debates have been—to say it politely—thin on substance, but high on spectacle. The first debate, which started civil enough, devolved into an aggressive banter that largely favored Secretary Clinton--Mr. Trump seemed to lose his composure several times during that contest, and the results showed in the polls. Donald Trump, though he never really led Secretary Clinton in the polls, had displayed strong momentum, nearly catching up to his adversary prior to the first debate. This trend, however, rapidly reversed itself after the debate.
Source: Huffington Post Pollster
Of course, much of Mr. Trump’s change in fortune arose not only due to his performance, but his “scandals,” and rather unflattering demeanor, after the debate occurred. Most notably, a video surfaced of Mr. Trump engaging in sexually inappropriate “locker room banter” about a female colleague. His rather half-hearted apology and the slew of un-endorsements that followed from Republican peers opened up a deluge of negative momentum that carried Mr. Trump into the second debate.
Not surprisingly, then, the second debate lacked any of the civility or, largely, commentary on key issues that many American’s hoped for. Instead, Donald Trump came out swinging. According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump interrupted or interjected 27 times during the debate, compared to Secretary Clinton’s 3. Trump also raised the transgressions of Bill Clinton several times and emphasized that his first move as President would be to “throw [Secretary Clinton] in jail.”
Now What?
So what can we expect in this debate? Well, expect more of the same, especially from Donald Trump. The furor over his commentary around women has not (and probably will not) died down. Compounding this, several ladies have even come forward claiming to be victims of Mr. Trump’s inappropriate behavior. All of this has put Trump in a precarious position—as of late, his poll numbers continue to slip, and he now trails Secretary Clinton by almost eight points nationally. Moreover, PredictIt, an online political futures marketplace, has Trump’s chance of winning at around 18%.
Source: Huffington Post Pollster
Given this, expect Mr. Trump to view this debate as something of an opportunity for a “Hail Mary” pass or a wild, haymaker knockout punch. Trump’s campaign is already so under-water that only dire, perhaps unconventional behavior in this debate can save any chance of success.
Expect Mr. Trump to focus on the two “core” elements that have provided him with his success thus far in the campaign. Firstly, Mr. Trump knows that the American public, quite frankly, doesn’t approve of him or his behavior; in order to win, he knows he must ensure that Secretary Clinton is also viewed with at least as much disapproval. To this end, Mr. Trump will very probably raise the issue of Clinton’s email scandal, emphasize her status as a “dirty player” sort of Washington insider, and (perhaps unfortunately) even try to engage in degrading banter about her and her husband.
Secondly, Mr. Trump will likely emphasize his “outsider” status as the only man capable of fixing America. As of Monday, Mr. Trump had been widely talking about “draining the swamp”—referring to Washington DC as the swamp—in an effort to portray the current status quo as a rigged political system that only he can correct. In fact, Mr. Trump has repeatedly stated that he believes the elections are rigged against him (coincidently, these comments seem to come more frequently as he begins losing). He will almost undoubtedly play up this aspect at the debate in an effort to tie his success with America’s almost ubiquitous discontent with the political process.
Source: Google Trends, Huffington Post Pollster
What about Secretary Clinton? She is in the driver’s seat here, and she knows it. Accordingly, she will likely look to play a defensive match; for her, “not messing up” is a success. Look for her to purposefully contrast her demeanor with that of Mr. Trump. She will also likely want to emphasize (though this must be done tastefully) Mr. Trump’s inappropriate commentary regarding women as a way to galvanize her base. If Mr. Clinton is to do well, she must portray herself as a candidate of presidential timbre, and therefore must show restraint to avoid getting into the sort of kindergarten mud-slinging that Mr. Trump would like her to engage in.
What about the issues? Officially, the list of issues to be discussed includes Debt, Immigration, the economy, the supreme court, and “fitness to be president.” Moderator Chris Wallace will likely want to keep the candidates on topic, but there’s probably little possibility we see some talk about real issues. In the past, especially during the Republican primary, Wallace probed Donald Trump with some tough questions, and even some graphics, to discredit his positions. It will be interesting to see how Wallace—Fox News’ first general election debate moderator—will handle this position.
Regarding the issues we will see covered, expect Trump to emphasize his stance on foreign trade and immigration, while Secretary Clinton will want to emphasize her strengths regarding taxation/spending and social issues. It remains to be seen how each candidate balances these topics and issues with the undoubted slew of negativity that will likely arise.
Buckle your seatbelts, America. We’re in the home stretch.
