Jim Willis
Editor & Publisher, Marcellus Drilling News (MDN)
Poetic justice demands the gas to the office of Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey be turned off or upped several fold in price. It could happen.
Contrary to the assurances of charlatans like Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey who tells us new natural gas pipelines are not needed, New England is once again looking down the throat of potential electricity shortages this winter — if we have another winter like that of 2013/2014. ISO New England Inc. (ISONE), the electrical grid operator in the region, issued a statement last week to say they are implementing a 2016-17 Winter Reliability Program to guard against potential electricity shortages because there’s not enough natural gas in the region to power electric plants if much of that gas is also heating homes and businesses on cold days.
According to ISONE, “Electricity supplies should [not a reassuring word] be sufficient to meet consumer demand for electricity in New England this winter.” They then go on to say, “but constraints on the region’s natural gas pipelines could pose a challenge to reliable operations.” In other words, if it gets really cold and snowy, we’re screwed. So, to fend off that screwing, ISONE has devised a program to load up on oil, of all things, and LNG, to help produce electricity if natgas runs short.
Don’t say we haven’t repeatedly warned New England that without new pipelines they will not only continue to pay 4x what everyone else pays for electricity, at some point there just won’t be enough fuel sources to produce electricity and sooner or later New England will have brownouts and/or rolling blackouts–because they’re fools and continue to reject safe, reliable natural gas pipelines.
Maura Healey
Below is the announcement from ISONE, loaded with equivocating language like “should” and “expected” and “challenge.” In other words, if temps drop and stay down and natural gas supplies run short and electricity prices spike through the roof, like they did a few years ago, ISONE has plenty of rear-end covering language so they don’t get blamed. The real blame will be on Big Green groups and officials like AG Healey who are sentencing their fellow New Englanders to a lifetime of high energy prices–because they irrationally hate fossil fuels and don’t want to run a pipeline a few hundred miles from the Marcellus. Boneheads.
Electricity supplies should be sufficient to meet consumer demand for electricity in New England this winter, but constraints on the region’s natural gas pipelines could pose a challenge to reliable operations, according to ISO New England, the region’s grid operator. Because of this concern, ISO New England has put into place a Winter Reliability Program that will help protect overall power system reliability.
“Winter has become a challenging time for New England grid operations,” said Vamsi Chadalavada, executive vice president and chief operating officer of ISO New England Inc. “Especially during the coldest weeks of the year, the natural gas infrastructure in New England is inadequate to meet the demand for gas for both heating and power generation. In fact, we’ve identified over 4,000 megawatts (MW) of natural-gas-fired generating capacity at risk of not getting sufficient fuel on any given day.”
A study conducted by ICF International for the ISO in 2013, and updated after the operational challenges experienced during the winter of 2013/2014, provides more detail regarding the natural gas supply constraints that can be expected in New England under various conditions.
“To address the serious challenge these constraints create for reliable power system operation and to ensure that generators can run during times of system stress, ISO New England will again employ a Winter Reliability Program to incentivize oil-fired generators and generators that can access liquefied natural gas to procure sufficient fuel before winter begins. The program has been a key factor in our ability to keep the lights on the last two winters,” Chadalavada said.
More than 45%—about 13,650 MW—of the total generating capacity in New England uses natural gas as its primary fuel, and natural gas generated 44% of the region’s power in 2014. Currently, most natural gas pipeline capacity is
committed for commercial and residential heating use. Any pipeline capacity remaining after heating customers are served can be sold for power generation; however, multiple studies and experience show that the natural gas pipelines are operating at or near full capacity to serve heating demand during most of the winter.2015/2016 Winter Outlook by the Numbers
• Peak demand forecast:
o At normal winter temperatures of about 7 degrees Fahrenheit (°F): 21,077 megawatts (MW)
o If extreme winter weather of 2°F occurs: 21,737 MW
o Both forecasts take into account the 1,663 MW in energy savings from energy-efficiency measures acquired through the region’s Forward Capacity Market (FCM)• Resources with an FCM capacity supply obligation to be available: 31,058 MW
o Total includes 29,932 MW of generation, 587 MW of demand-response resources, and 1,226 MW of imports minus 687 MW unavailable due to maintenance or other reasons• Total resources, including both FCM obligations and capability without FCM obligations: 33,922 MW
o A generator’s maximum possible output may be greater than its FCM obligation
o Total includes 32,872 MW of generation, 587 MW of demand-response resources, and 1,226 MW of imports minus 763 MW unavailable due to maintenance or other reasons• Natural gas-fired generating capacity at risk of not being able to get fuel when needed: 4,220 MW
• Winter 2014/2015 peak demand: 20,583 MW on January 8, 2015, for the hour from 5 to 6 p.m.
• All-time winter peak in New England: 22,818 MW on January 15, 2004
• All-time peak demand: 28,130 MW, on August 2, 2006
ISO New England Reliability Measures
The ISO:
• Worked with stakeholders to design the Winter Reliability Program, a short-term wintertime program to ensure system reliability until performance incentives go into effect in 2018
• Communicates frequently with natural gas pipeline operators to monitor conditions on the pipeline network and assess how these conditions may affect the natural-gas-fired generators in the region
• Coordinates with pipelines on system maintenance
• Meets with generators and conducts audits to determine winter readiness and checks fuel inventories monthly, then weekly or daily as winter progresses
• Reviews preparations by transmission owners and coordinates equipment tests
• Conducts regular, frequent calls with pipeline operators, national and regional power system reliability coordinators, and neighboring power grids
• Developed a specialized software tool for ISO control room operators to determine whether natural gas-fired power plants scheduled to run will be able to obtain the gas they need
o Software collects publicly available information about natural gas pipeline flows and calculates the likely total draw by natural gas utilities based on weather forecasts• Changed the Day-Ahead Energy Market deadlines to more closely align with natural gas trading deadlines, making it easier for natural-gas-fired generators to obtain pipeline capacity for the next day
• Revamped its entire energy dispatch software to enable generators to enter hourly, rather than daily, offers that can reflect volatile fuel prices that change throughout the day
Operational Procedures to Maintain Reliability
In planning for the winter season, ISO New England takes into account a number of outage scenarios, including the potential for some natural gas generators to be temporarily unavailable during cold or extreme winter conditions. Should unexpected generator or transmission line outages occur, the ISO has procedures in place to maintain reliability, including calling on demand-response resources to reduce their energy use, importing emergency power from neighboring regions, and asking businesses and residents to voluntarily conserve electricity.
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Please…put a bag over its head.
The “Law of Averages” never fails, and Mother Nature is overdue to counterbalance what has been a generally-warm period with a real smack-down reminder of what She can do.
With millions of northeasterners experiencing cold and dark, how long will it take for a REAL PRESIDENT and FERC to figuratively-hang Andrew Cuomo from the nearest tree for obstructionism, so as to allow pipeline work to start?
It is a basic part of entrepreneurship that a business must make a market for it’s good or service. PA and NY have abundant gas, New England has none and needs it, yet you have let this ideal market fall under the sway of anti-gas partisans. They have controlled the narrative with fear, uncertainty and doubt about gas for years, but it our fault that we haven’t developed an answer to regain the customer’s support.
I guarantee you that if this winter is hard, the anti’s will say: “See, fossil fuels can’t help you; you need clean, green renewables.” I know they have negligible renewable energy available now and no chance of adding any significant amount by next winter, but that doesn’t matter. They will say or do almost anything to keep gas out until they can build wind and solar “farms”.
Do what Mr. Willis did here. Take real facts and figures from sources that will be trusted and relentlessly ask the anti’s to explain themselves. Wind turbines work fine, but non-existent ones do nothing. Make them answer how long it will take to build the tens of thousands that will be needed and what to do about energy shortages for the next decade or two.
Make your pitch to them an economic one. Decommissioned nuclear and coal plants need replacement. Gas is clean, inexpensive and available; the alternative is expensive rolling brown outs in the cold and dark.