Apple is in a bit of a quandary over the iPhone 7. There is a lot of technology that Cupertino is rumored to be working on, but much of it is earmarked for the iPhone to be released in 2017 - the tenth anniversary of the iPhone. Unless Tim Cook decided to lowers Apple's standards, the 2016 iPhone is going to struggle to stand out. Compared to the existing iPhone 6 which it arguably replaces, there is little in the currently expected package to appeal to those looking for an upgrade. What is Apple likely to offer in 2016's default iOS handset?
It's worth pointing out that the information here could change in short order, and of course Taniyama-Shimura applies. While the supply chain has become a lot more porous over the last few years - especially in regard to Apple products - it cannot always be one hundred percent correct. What this article looks to cover is the best appraisal of the evidence available from reliable sources. That can give us a good idea of the upcoming handset.
The last six years have seen Apple exhibit a predictable tick-tock design cycle with the iPhone. Broadly speaking the designers changed the outer shell in the 'vanilla' years (think the iPhone 4, iPhone 5, and iPhone 6), while the engineers made the significant hardware changes in the 'S' years (the iPhone 4S, 5S and 6S). That predictability means that almost everyone is expecting to see something 'new' this year in a vanilla iPhone year.
That's not going to happen. The iPhone 7 is going to stick with the iPhone 6 family design, and that's a huge disappointment. The two-year cycle of iPhone design updates syncs quite nicely with consumer's two-year carrier contracts. When that contract runs out, there's a new design of iPhone with new internal hardware. That's not going to happen this year for iPhone 6 owners. I don't think moving the antenna bands to the top and bottom of the handset to create an unblemished back panel is enough. With a handset that echoes 'more of the same' Apple appears to have made a strategic error.
The apparent reason for this is the amount of technology that is being earmarked for the 2017 edition of the iPhone - presumably so the tenth anniversary iPhone can make a big splash in the market. But that strategy leaves the iPhone 7 looking like a stop-gap handset that is being made because the market expects 'something'. That something has some nice additions, but is it going to be enough to achieve the volume of sales and upgrades that Tim Cook needs in 2016?
The three main hardware changes that Apple will be using to tempt consumers into the iPhone 7 are new speakers, an improved camera, and a different way to listen to music.
Recent leaks around the case design suggest that Apple is following the iPad Pro's trend of placing speakers at the four corners of the handset. That's a vast improvement on the solitary mono speaker in the current design, and while they are not 'forward facing' this should help the sound quality of the speakerphone and playing music out loud. It's an easy change to market to the public, although it does require a lot of volume to be sacrificed inside the case if it does happen.
The loss of the 3.5mm headphone jack is going to be harder to sell. The reliance on either bluetooth or the lightning port to listen to music has been something that has been leaked for more than year, almost as if Apple knows this idea needs time to be accepted by everybody. I am intrigued to see how Tim Cook sells this on the stage. From the first Sony Walkman to pretty much every mobile phone and tablet on sale today, the 3.5mm jack plug has been a mainstay for headphones. If you thought dropping the floppy disk drive from the iMac was a tough call, this is bigger.
Will there be better audio through the lightning port? Probably. Will people look at Apple and think 'my favourite headphones don't work and I don't want to pay Apple's prices for a new pair?' Possibly. The media will likely accept the change with a nod to Apple's ruthless history on peripheral I/O ports, but the public reaction will be much less forgiving.
Then there's the camera. With more space being cut out for the camera unit's lens, it's a good bet that the camera is going to be more sensitive to light. A larger aperture and sensor array are likely beneficiaries of the increased space. This is vital for Apple, because in terms of quality of image the iPhone is no longer the leader of the pack - that trophy belongs to Samsung and the Galaxy S7 and S7 Edge handsets.
With the iPhone 6S family, the increased benefits of optically stabilised imaging was reserved for the larger iPhone 6S Plus handset. The iPhone 6S was left with dealing with jitter in software, diminishing the quality of the resulting image just enough to lose pole position. There's nothing to indicate that imaging is going to make anything more than an evolutionary jump in the iPhone 7.
There's been talk of Apple bringing the smart connector over from the iPad Pro devices, but this appears to be just for the larger phablet sized model (be it the iPhone 7 Plus or the 7 Pro).
Next page: iOS 10, Siri, improved security, and release dates...
This year Apple will hold WWDC (its developer conference) between June 13 and June 17. The tenth major version of iOS is expected to be revealed during the keynote, with developer builds available shortly afterwards. This will give us a clear vision of Apple's short- and medium-term direction in regards software. It's unlikely to reveal any particular hardware requirements from the conference floor, but expect developers to be looking through the API calls for new features that may suggest screen sizes, technology, or specific I/O devices.
Much of what could make the iPhone 7 stand out will be in software, although this advantage will not be as large as some might expect because Apple (rightly) ensures that iOS updates are made available to older devices for a number of years.
The UI in Apple's music apps is expected to be updated in iOS 10. Visible software changes to music would tie into the headphone jack removal and speaker placement. Apple could be looking to pitch the iPhone 7 as advice geared heavily towards music consumption. Siri is being opened up to developers through an API so expect more voice-powered functionality and A.I. to appear in the software.
The other change that iOS 10 will bring is likely to be in the area of security. 2016 saw Apple undertake a bruising public battle with the US Government over decrypting a device. Expect Apple to create a stronger digital locker for users information where it has no access to the digital keys, and ensure that the hardware is designed to prevent backdoor exploits.
What the iPhone 7 can uniquely offer iOS 10 is a new platform with the latest chipset. The yearly update to the processor will likely see the iPhone 7 ship with the A10 processor, and while this may not see a faster iPhone, it should offer savings in terms of battery life, standby time and more efficient coding. Apple could take this opportunity to increase the RAM from 2GB, but like the smart connector a bump to 3GB may be reserved for the larger iPhone 7 Plus model.
Everything points to Apple following a similar pattern in terms of reveal and release of the new iPhone to previous years. That means an event early in September to show off the iPhone 7 and the new features, pre-orders opening at the end of that week, and a release to the public a week or two after that in the US and a number of key overseas territories.
The competition know this as well. As you've read, the iPhone 7 is going to be a 'steady as she goes' release and may struggle to push forward the idea of Apple creating an innovative handset. Meanwhile four weeks before the iPhone 7 launch will be Samsung's chance to launch the Note 6 (or will it be the Note 7?) and crank up the pressure on Tim Cook and his team to deliver a home run.
The problem is that the iPhone 7 doesn't feel like a heavyweight release. Almost everything that the iPhone 7 is expected to deliver has either already been done, or feels like Apple is trying to squeeze more cash out of the smartphone ecosystem. Apple is caught between a rock and a hard place. It is expected to update the iPhone every year, but the technology to create a true update is not yet available.
No doubt the iPhone 7 will sell well on the strength of the iPhone name, but it's going to rely on a lot of goodwill. That means that when 2017's presumably radical iPhone arrives there's going to be less of that goodwill to go around as Apple tries to push everyone to upgrade to "the best iPhone ever".
The iPhone 7 is a gamble from Apple that its brand name will be enough to sell this smartphone.
