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What To Expect From Starbucks' CEO Shuffle — Shaky Or Seamless?

Starbucks founder Howard Schultz will step down as CEO for a second time, with tech-savvy Kevin Johnson taking over. (AP)

Starbucks' (SBUX) top bean, Howard Schultz, is relinquishing the position of chief exec come April and will focus on the coffee giant's premium retail efforts as executive chairman. In his stead will be current COO Kevin Johnson, a former Juniper Networks (JNPR) CEO and Microsoft (MSFT) vet who has been with the company since 2009.

So what can coffee lovers and investors expect from the changes at the top?

Some Wall Street pros mourned the loss of Schultz, who spent most of the last three decades at a company that is now a household name. Synonymous with coffee and often skewered as a yuppie staple, Starbucks has, under his tenure, become a pop cultural icon of middle-class aspiration.

"In our coverage, we may not ever again follow a CEO with his combination of merchandising genius, energy, strategic thinking, and inspirational leadership," wrote RBC Capital Markets analyst David Palmer.

Wells Fargo analyst Bonnie Herzog called Schultz "without question one of the strongest and most visionary leaders in the consumer/retail world." She has an outperform rating on the stock.


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Starbucks' advances on the tech front have put it far ahead of restaurant peers. The restaurant has cultivated a solid loyalty program and a mobile payment function that as of the most recently reported quarter accounted for 25% of all transactions.

Shares fell 2.2 to 57.21 on the stock market today in response to the CEO shuffle. Starbucks stock has retaken its 200-day moving average recently, but has been lagging the overall market for more than a year.

But the leadership transition is not wholly unexpected, and not unwelcome. Herzog says it's been in the works for years.

"Importantly Johnson has an exceptionally good relationship with Schultz, which should keep Schultz sufficiently removed to allow Johnson to lead effectively given his trust in Johnson, while also remaining sufficiently nearby to ensure the ship remains on course," she wrote.

RBC's Palmer says the shift is occurring "during a period of strength."

Broadly, analysts don't appear to expect a huge shake-up from the change.

And stockwise, the move presents "more of a buying opportunity than reason to run away," headlined a report from Buckingham Research Group analyst John Zolidis, who believes that Schultz will still be very involved in the business and that Johnson is "well qualified to step into the CEO role."

Other issues, in Zolidis' view, weigh on the stock. He sees a slowdown in U.S. same-store sales and "modest downside risk to earnings."

Last month, Starbucks reported slightly better-than-expected fourth-quarter results, but issued somewhat cautious profit guidance for 2017. The company now seems to be looking to China as an area with the greatest growth opportunities.

The stock has been on an upswing since then, however, going into management's investor day coming up on Wednesday.

Starbucks in recent years has outpaced competitors at home, including McDonald's (MCD) and Dunkin' Brands (DNKN).

But Dunkin' Brands earnings growth has picked up in recent quarters, with its Dunkin' Donuts chain expanding in California. Dunkin' Brands shares fell 0.2% to 54.27 on Friday, but are trading at their best levels since August 2015.

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