Fantasy Football 2015: Late-Round Sleepers to Target and Busts to Avoid

Successful fantasy football owners stay frosty as drafts drone on into the late rounds, keying on valuable sleepers to target and costly busts to avoid. Bust is a bit of an exaggeration once a fantasy draft winds down to the 11th to 13th rounds, but sleepers like Teddy Bridgewater, Delanie Walker and Colin Kaepernick could mean the difference between irrelevance and glory in 2015.

Impatient owners tend to zone out late in drafts when there are still plenty of reserves with starting potential waiting on the board. Top-12 finishers at their respective positions like Eli Manning (No. 155), Antonio Gates (No. 145) and Jeremy Hill (No. 125) were still available in Rounds 11-13 last season, according to MyFantasyLeague.com.

The following players are listed in ascending order based on their value, comparing Fantasy Pros’ expert consensus ranking (ECR) versus average draft position (ADP).

Guidelines

• Players listed are currently being drafted between the 11th and 13th rounds: the 121st through 156th position. Standard 12-team leagues with 16 roster spots reach capacity with 192 players.
• Only the standard-scoring, season-long, redraft format was considered when compiling this list.
• "Bust" simply indicates the player’s ADP is well ahead of his expert consensus ranking, according to Fantasy Pros.
• "Sleeper" means the opposite: Said player is dropping well below his ranking in ADP and is therefore a good value in between those two positions.

Owners are reaching for handcuffs in the late-middle rounds:

• Knile Davis backing up Jamaal Charles for the Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 131, ECR: 151).
• Andre Williams backing up Rashad Jennings for the New York Giants (ADP: 139, ECR: 163).
• DeAngelo Williams backing up Le’Veon Bell for the Pittsburgh Steelers (ADP: 126, ECR: 180).
• Montee Ball backing up C.J. Anderson for the Denver Broncos (ADP: 121, ECR: 177).

The debate isn’t if owners should handcuff quality reserve running backs to bell-cow starters but rather how soon.

None of the aforementioned backups carry as much value for an owner who doesn’t also own the starter, unless the player was poached with the intention of trading him to that owner down the road.

A smart owner of a top-tier running back with an obvious handcuff wouldn’t let it happen, which probably leads to drafting the backup a few rounds ahead of his actual value.

Does this constitute a reach if the starter never gets hurt and the handcuff occupies a valuable bench seat all season?

No. That’s how insurance works. It should be there when you need it, but hopefully the day never comes.

Although it appears Davis, Williams-squared and Ball would be busts based on the multiple-round leaps that owners are making to snag them, it’s actually a smart move to protect a valuable investment so long as the intention is to use them as handcuffs.

It seems like an odd statement when his own team doesn’t even want him—according to Peter King of the MMQB—but Cutler is a decent fantasy quarterback worthy of an 11th-round pick (No. 119) who is going late in the 14th (No. 167).

The combination of poor defense and slow starts on offense afforded Cutler plenty of opportunities in garbage time, which he used to finish 14th in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks.

Assuming said situation doesn’t evolve much in head coach John Fox’s first season, the nine-year veteran should not be the 23rd quarterback off your board. His arsenal still includes diverse options in Martellus Bennett, Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffery.

I wouldn’t sign Cutler up to be your franchise QB in fantasy or the pros, but he’ll provide serviceable numbers as a bye-week filler or streaming option in 2015.

Draft-day takeaway: Cutler posted his two best passer ratings in the last two seasons (88.6 in 2014 and 89.2 in 2013).

Cobb brings a downhill running style that is lacking in the Titans backfield, which is stocked with shifty speedsters Bishop Sankey and Dexter McCluster and an unproven big man in Antonio Andrews.

Although the backfield is setting up to carry on the committee approach utilized in 2014, Cobb stands to gain the most if he beats out Sankey for the early-down carries.

Lance Zierlein of NFL.com reported an anonymous AFC running back coach was excited about Cobb’s ability heading into the draft: "I'm hoping we get him. He can step right in and play because he runs tough and he knows how to pass protect. His offensive line was bad too. He's a way shiftier runner than he gets credit for."

Tennessee spent an early fifth-rounder on the Minnesota Golden Gophers product, which is the equivalent of the 10th round that fantasy owners should be grabbing the rookie, who is dropping into the 12th in ADP (137th).

Draft-day takeaway: Cobb posted the highest yards-per-carry average (6.3) among running backs with at least 10 attempts at the 2015 Senior Bowl.

Bradford is slipping roughly one round below his ranking (ADP: 114, ECR: 132) due to hesitation over two torn ACLs in the last two seasons and learning head coach Chip Kelly’s scheme in Philadelphia.

The five-year veteran won’t face off with Mark Sanchez to officially claim the Eagles’ QB1 spot until training camp, according to Eliot Shorr-Parks of NJ Advanced Media. But concerns about the camp battle for quarterback touted by Kelly—according to Shorr-Parks—should not prevent fantasy owners from assuming the job is Bradford’s to lose.

Don’t forget Kelly immediately began reforming the franchise in his image as soon as he claimed the role of general manager away from Howie Roseman. Bradford would have to hopelessly fail or suffer another serious injury in training camp for Kelly to admit he made a mistake in trading Nick Foles and a 2016 second-rounder to take on Bradford’s injury history and $12.985 million salary.

If Kelly can otherwise compartmentalize what happens on the field and in the front office, it would certainly be an anomaly by NFL standards.

Therefore, Bradford makes an excellent high-risk/reward QB2 who is coming off draft boards in the 12th round at the helm of 2014’s third-ranked offense.

Draft-day takeaway: Dr. James L. Carey from the University of Pennsylvania told Tim McManus of Philadelphia Magazine Bradford’s odds of tearing his left ACL again are just 3 to 6 percent.

This list evaluates players in standard formats only, which greatly diminishes the value of strong pass-receiving backs such as Sproles.

He’s ranked 130th in PPR, dropping to 158th in standard leagues. Yet owners are drafting him in virtually identical positions (127th ADP in PPR, 128th in standard).

It’s true the nine-year veteran scored half as many rushing touchdowns in one season with Philadelphia (six) than he had in eight combined with the San Diego Chargers (six) and the New Orleans Saints (five). But his chances of seeing playing time as a rusher appear greatly diminished with DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews ahead of him on the depth chart.

Meanwhile, Sproles’ receiving production plummeted in 2014 to almost half of his explosive numbers with the Saints: 5.7 catches for 45 yards per game and 16 total receiving touchdowns in New Orleans versus 2.7, 25.8 and zero in Philadelphia.

Owners who are looking for a value change-of-pace back in the 11th to 13th rounds should choose Danny Woodhead instead. His only competition for playing time in San Diego is rookie Melvin Gordon, and Woodhead is getting drafted 18 points below his ranking (ADP: 151, ECR: 136).

Draft-day takeaway: Because Sproles plays a change-of-pace role with the Eagles, he’s not a handcuff for Murray owners (see: Mathews).

Flacco is preparing for the 2015 season under his fourth offensive coordinator in as many years. Fortunately, the seven-year veteran is coming off his best season, and Marc Trestman is known for helping quarterbacks become or remain successful.

Flacco finished 13th in fantasy scoring among quarterbacks, posting career highs in yardage (3,986) and touchdowns (27).

Baltimore also helped Flacco in the draft, replacing the departed Torrey Smith with wide receiver Breshad Perriman out of UCF and tight end Maxx Williams from Minnesota—in the first and second rounds, respectively.

Fantasy owners are dozing on Flacco a bit, allowing the 112th-ranked talent (QB17) to slip to 130th in ADP. If you’re planning on streaming quarterbacks or just seeking a backup, Flacco makes a nice fit in the 11th round.

Draft-day takeaway: Flacco hasn’t missed a start in his seven-year career—127 straight, including the playoffs.

All the talk out of Cardinals camp is enthusiastic regarding Brown’s prospects in 2015. Pro Football Talk tweeted that safety Tyrann Mathieu named Brown the standout player in OTAs.

The 2014 third-rounder from the Division II Pittsburgh State Gorillas flashed in his rookie campaign with a 14.5 yards-per-catch average but suffered from erratic play at quarterback.

Carson Palmer started only six games, with Drew Stanton (eight) and Ryan Lindley (two) filling in the rest. Both Brown (51.1) and Michael Floyd (50.5) ended up at the bottom of the league in percentage of targets caught as a result, according to Pro Football Focus.

Palmer is fully recovered from the ACL tear that ended his 2014 season and worked with Brown before training camp to calibrate their timing, according to Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com.

If the pair jells in the regular season and Palmer can stay healthy, Brown will be an absolute steal at ADP 140, 30 points below his ECR (110).

Draft-day takeaway: Head coach Bruce Arians compared Brown—5’11”, 179 pounds—to Marvin Harrison, according to ESPN’s Bill Polian on NFL Insiders (h/t Rotoworld’s Evan Silva on Twitter).

Chances are most fantasy owners recall Garcon’s staggering fall from his league-leading 113 catches in 2013 to just 68 (tied for 38th) in 2014. Head coach Jay Gruden accepted blame for the drop in production last season, according to Elliott Smith of the Washington Post.

“We tried to get Pierre involved early in the game and for whatever reason his targets are down and that’s on us as play-callers," Gruden said. "All he can do is go out there and run his routes the way he is supposed to run them and hopefully next week and the week after we will get him more touches.”

The Washington Post’s Mike Jones reported the way Garcon is supposed to run routes might be changing in his favor as he swapped the X for the Z position with DeSean Jackson. Z lines up to the right of the formation, which is the more productive spot in Gruden’s offense.

Another indication the output between Garcon and Jackson might level out in their second season together is Gruden’s praise for Garcon’s offseason work ethic, according to Liz Clarke of the Washington Post.

“I’m impressed, especially with Pierre. Pierre has been here every day, working his tail off, doing a great job.”

Meanwhile, ESPN.com’s John Keim reported Jackson spent the offseason “focused on outside activities.”

Fantasy owners who are letting Garcon drop into the 11th round (127th overall) might want to reconsider based on his late-ninth-round grade (107th). He’s a better value than Davante Adams (117th) and Percy Harvin (123rd), who are both going ahead of Garcon in ADP. 

Draft-day takeaway: There might be pressure from the front office to get Garcon more involved too, since he carries the second-highest cap number on the team for 2015 ($9.7 million).

Bridgewater was supposed to sit out his rookie season, but the 2014 first-rounder out of Louisville found himself thrust into the spotlight when Matt Cassel’s Week 3 foot injury forced him on injured reserve.

His initiation started out rocky, as he tossed one touchdown to five interceptions in his first three starts, but offensive coordinator Norv Turner was impressed with Bridgewater’s improvement through the final six games, according to Tom Pelissero of USA Today:

He was much more decisive. We were very specific in terms of what we were doing. I think we had a good feel for what we did best as a unit. We had so many changes early: a culmination of obviously playing three quarterbacks over a period of time, the offensive line shuffling in and out, the backfield situation. I don't care if you had a veteran quarterback — it was going to be a challenge.

After three seasons struggling to replace Brett Favre, the Vikings let Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder know "your relief is here; you can go," with full confidence Bridgewater is leading the franchise in the right direction.

He will benefit from Adrian Peterson’s return from suspension, a healthy Kyle Rudolph and the free-agent acquisition of Mike Wallace for the departed Greg Jennings.

Fantasy owners are allowing him to slip into the 11th round (No. 125) despite his ninth-round ranking (No. 106). Bridgewater is a great candidate to leap from low-end to high-end QB2 in his second season.

Draft-day takeaway: Bridgewater put together the third-most accurate season passing among rookies in league history (64.4 percent), according to Matt Vensel of the Star Tribune.  

It appears few fantasy owners remember Walker finished inside the top 10 in scoring among tight ends in 2014—eighth place with 113 points in 15 games (14 starts). He’s the highest-ranked player on this list with an ECR of 99, but owners aren’t calling his name until pick No. 134 on average.  

Pro Football Focus rated Walker sixth among tight ends who saw at least 60 percent of their team’s snaps in 2014. He finished second only to Coby Fleener (15.2) in yards per catch within the same group, averaging 14.1.

Owners are likely turned off by his atypical size for a tight end (6’0”, 248 pounds) and Tennessee’s dysfunctional offense—the league’s third-worst in 2014.

But if Walker produced so well as the top target for Jake Locker, Charlie Whitehurst and Zach Mettenberger (106 total), imagine what he will do with Marcus Mariota.

Trust Walker as a low-end TE1 over lesser options being drafted ahead of him: Josh Hill (No. 133), Antonio Gates (No. 122) and Owen Daniels (No. 109).

Draft-day takeaway: Walker led all Titans in receptions (63) and yards from scrimmage (890) last season.

It’s essential as a fantasy owner to stay “Semper Gumby” season by season, which is why Kaepernick deserves another look after a 2014 campaign better left to the depths of Lake Bandini.

The four-year veteran struggled along with the entire 49ers franchise last season, burning owners who spent an early sixth-round pick on average, according to MyFantasyLeague.com. He’s now the 18th quarterback taken, hanging around until the 12th round (135th overall).

Kaepernick acknowledged his weaknesses by training individually at the EXOS facility in Phoenix this offseason when not participating in OTAs and minicamp, according to Matt Barrows of the Sacramento Bee. Players often revert to bad habits during the stress of actual games, but it’s encouraging to see him at least attempt to improve his passing mechanics.

Head coach Jim Tomsula hinted offensive coordinator Geep Chryst will “utilize the total package” in 2015, adding “it’s any secret that [Kaepernick’s] legs work really well,” according to Matt Maiocco of CSN Bay Area.

Tomsula stipulated he still expects Kaepernick to win with his arm, but it’s good news from a fantasy perspective to hear he might once again be allowed to use his valuable rushing skills with Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh’s restrictions no longer a factor.  

Expectations should remain tempered, but mere mention of Kaepernick’s breakaway ability lends him higher QB2 upside than others going ahead of him: Sam Bradford (132nd ADP), Joe Flacco (130th) and Teddy Bridgewater (125th).

Draft-day takeaway: Before Harbaugh put a governor on him, Kaepernick rushed for 679 yards and eight touchdowns through 10 regular and postseason starts in 2012.

Average draft position and consensus ranking courtesy of Fantasy Pros, NFL statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference, fantasy stats provided by CBS Sports.com, contract and salary cap information provided by Over the Cap unless otherwise noted.