On Saturday at about 6:45 p.m., 10 horses will line up to run in the 142nd Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. Post positions and morning line odds were announced on Wednesday, and with the publication of past performances, there’s nothing to stop you from handicapping the second leg of this year’s Triple Crown.
Hello Race Fans! (to which I contribute) provides an introduction to various wagers, which is an excellent resource if any of the handicappers’ terminology is unfamiliar. Here’s a look at all the contenders, and here’s another.
On Saturday, NBC will provide live coverage beginning at 2:30 pm ET on NBCSN. Coverage switches to NBC at 5 pm, and scheduled post time for the Preakness is 6:48 pm.
Our public handicappers are back to offer their opinions on how to make money, even if heavy favorite Always Dreaming makes it to the winner’s circle.
Who do you like? Let us know in the comments.
Good luck and safe trips to all the contenders, and happy wagering…
Seth Merrow, publisher of Equidaily.com and handicapper for Capital OTB-TV: Almost by definition, the Derby runners are the best of their generation at this time of year, and in 2017 that clearly
seems to be the case. Multiplier, Cloud Computing, and Conquest Mo Money offer some interest, but it's hard to get too excited about any of these "new shooters.”
I've been "married" to Gunnevera since the beginning of the year. I don't want to give up now and have him rebound from a Derby disappointment in the mud and win in Baltimore at a good price, so I'm sticking there for at least one more race.
Always Dreaming sits at the top of the class after the Derby win, and Classic Empire was probably better than his fourth-place finish a couple of weeks ago. He had a troubled trip.
I'll box those three in the exacta and put some win money on Gunnevera.
As a racing fan, I'll have no regrets if always Dreaming beats me and heads to the Belmont Stakes with a Triple Crown on the line.
Emily Gullikson, partner at OptixEQ.com: After an eventful trip on the first Saturday of May, I am willing to give my top pick in the Kentucky Derby, Hence, one more chance this Saturday in the 142nd running of the Preakness Stakes.
Ideally, I would have liked to have seen more from #3 Hence in the “Run for the Roses,” but I do not think he handled the off going at Churchill Downs and was never in a position or given an opportunity to run his race that day. If he has a license to rebound, it very well could be in the Preakness on Saturday.
From a wagering perspective, I expect Hence to go off near his morning line of 20-1. Many handicappers are turning to #10 Conquest Mo Money as a value option. However, I find it surprising that he will likely go off a shorter price than my key horse, considering that Hence dominated him in the Sunland Derby less than two months ago.
I give the two morning line favorites #4 Always Dreaming and #5 Classic Empire a significant chance and cannot take a real strong stance against either, but there are some questions in regards to both, “Hence” the look elsewhere for a key horse in my wagering.
The trifecta and superfecta in the Preakness Stakes often offer some very lucrative payouts and are worth a wager. #6 Gunnevera, #7 Term of Art, #8 Senior Investment, and #9 Lookin At Lee are all horses worth including underneath in the exotics at double-digit odds.
Barbara Bowley, co-founder of the horseracing tournament website The Tournament Edge, and Nicolle Neulist, The Tournament Edge content editor: Ten horses are contesting the 2017 Preakness, and only two of them typically get on or close to the lead early in the race. Those are the New Mexico-based #10 Conquest Mo Money (15-1) and Kentucky Derby winner #4 Always Dreaming (4-5). Because both also have tactical speed (they won’t burn each other out fighting to be the only one on the lead the whole race), their pace advantage can carry them all the way to the wire. They are our keys to betting the Preakness.
The Derby winner Always Dreaming is in excellent form, and his pace strength makes him a must-use as insurance on top of your exactas, trifectas, and superfectas. But at a morning line below even money, it’s worth a shot to beat him with Conquest Mo Money.
We recommend taking advantage of some incredibly juicy odds on horses with legitimate chances of coming in second or third. If you want your wagering super simple, put win and place bets on Conquest Mo Money. While his 15-1 morning-line odds are a pipe dream come post time, attractive odds of 10-1 or 8-1 are realistic for him by the time the race goes off.
To try for a bigger reward, bet an exacta or trifecta. Bet Always Dreaming and Conquest Mo Money in first place, then add #1 Multiplier (30-1) and #5 Classic Empire (3-1) to come in second. We think Multiplier is especially intriguing. With only four lifetime races, he hasn’t yet faced horses as good as these, but last time out in the 1 1/8-miles, Grade 3 Illinois Derby, he ran with enough stamina to be a legitimate player in the Preakness. Classic Empire should be closer to the lead than he was in the Kentucky Derby where he had a really rough start. Repeat these two in your trifectas for third place.
We recommend a simple win or win/place wager on Conquest Mo Money at whatever wagering amount is in your comfort zone, and try a $.50 base wager trifecta with 4,10/1,4,5,10/1,4,5,10. Cost: $6.00.
Brian Nadeau, handicapper at Horseplayer Now and Brooklyn Backstretch: While it's clear that Always Dreaming is the horse to beat off his Kentucky Derby win, there's a lot of reason to expect regression today, since he rode an inside-favoring track to the win and, with Classic Empire drawn to his immediate outside, he's going to have to run hard the entire step of the way today. The latter had a nightmare trip in the Derby yet still rallied to be a game fourth, and, unlike the winner, enters as a very fresh horse after an abbreviated, stop-and-start campaign. So, with that in mind, and at a price that will be a lot better than it should, I'll be making a good-sized win bet on Classic Empire, while singling him to end both lucrative Pick 5 and Pick 4 sequences that conclude in the Preakness. I'll use toss in Gunnevera underneath and play an exacta, as he should have a better chance to rally from off what looks like a hot pace, something he couldn't do over an inside speed track in the Derby. (Brian offers in-depth horse-by-horse analysis here.)
Ed DeRosa, director of marketing for Brisnet.com:
- Classic Empire
- Gunnevera
- Multiplier
I have two strong opinions on the Preakness Stakes: 1) Classic Empire is the best bet to win the race, and 2) Gunnevera is the best bet after the top two choices.
Missing from that is Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming, who absolutely can win the Preakness Stakes, but not at the better-than-50% rate he’d need to in order to make betting on him at odds-on a good idea.
For that reason, there’s no reason to pick him “on top” since Classic Empire is the logical alternative. However, if Gunnevera does run well, then I don’t want to be ripping up tickets because Always Dreaming ran to his Florida & Kentucky Derbys.
So it’s a two-pronged approach from a wagering standpoint: 1) single Classic Empire in multi-race wagers and figure I’ll get better value on him than Always Dreaming without doubling my ticket. 2) key Gunnevera in vertical wagers (exactas, trifectas, and superfectas).
So why Classic Empire? Well, he was my pick to win the Kentucky Derby, and I’m not sure he’d have won even with a better start and clean trip, but he would have been better than fourth. Now we get two more weeks of seasoning after a good race and missed training before that, less pace in a shorter field, and a fast track. All those variables give me confidence to back him at 5-2 and try to fade Always Dreaming.
Gunnevera doesn’t have quite the excuses Classic Empire did in the Derby, and the Preakness doesn’t figure to be great for him race-shape wise, but he’ll be at least 10-1 and always has run OK even when not everything goes his way. I don’t think he’ll be a complete flop in here, and since the top two look so formidable, there’s not a lot you can do with using a bunch (an approach that worked in the Derby if you liked Always Dreaming), so Gunnevera is the alternative on which to lean.
